Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)4.50 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.4.20 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.5.00 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.4.00 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian access constraints.5.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
The military staged a coup on 1 February 2021, declaring fraud in the November 2020 multiparty general election won by the National League for Democracy. The military junta ordered a year-long state of emergency under sections 417 and 418(a) of the 2008 constitution and promised to hold new elections afterwards. On 1 August, the military extended the state of emergency until August 2023, with the same promise of holding elections afterwards. There has been reduced access to internet, banking, health and education services because of the coup, and displacement and armed clashes have expanded to new regions. The dual impacts of the political crisis and COVID-19 pandemic resulted in increased food insecurity, poverty, and disruption of livelihoods. 14.4 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance in 2022.?
Protests against the coup and a civil disobedience movement (CDM) spread countrywide. The protests are concentrated in the Mandalay, Sagaing, Tanintharyi, and Yangon regions. The military junta and informal armed groups responded with violence against protestors present on the ground, including health practitioners. The health system is largely disrupted, and response to COVID-19 is further complicated because of the coup and the resulting intercommunal tensions. Around 145,000 school and university educators were suspended for joining the CDM, and military personnel are present in and around education facilities. Only 10% of around nine million pupils returned to school as a result of insecurity and anti-coup sentiment. ?
The National Unity Government (NUG) was established in April, claiming to be the legitimate representative of Myanmar. The NUG formed the People’s Defence Force (PDF) in early May to unite anti-coup resistance. The military clashed with the PDF, including in the southeast and the northwest regions. Around 1.2 million people had been displaced in Myanmar since the coup. Low-intensity explosions targeting government buildings and infrastructure are also taking place across the country. ?
Continued conflict and socioeconomic distress are worsening the humanitarian situation in Myanmar. 17.6 million people are expected to be in need of humanitarian assistance in 2023, a 22% increase from 2022. The junta has planned elections that are not supported by anti-coup resistance groups and major ethnic armed organisations for August 2023. There is no relief from political instability in sight, and armed conflict is expected to rise. 1.4 million people are projected to be newly displaced in 2023 as a result of continued conflict, possibly increasing the total number of IDPs in the country to 2.7 million. Cold weather is expected to last till February, and those currently displaced are in need of winterisation support, including blankets, shoes, and warm clothes. 15.2 million people are estimated to be facing moderate or severe food insecurity in 2023, two million more than in 2022. Agricultural households, smallholder farmers, and those depending on livestock farming are the most vulnerable to food insecurity because of a combination of issues, including reduced access to agricultural inputs and the decrease in the farm gate prices of their produce. ?