Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)4.50 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.4.40 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.4.50 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.4.50 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian access constraints.5.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
Yemen: Collapse of ceasefire in Aden
Yemen: Risk Overview
Yemen: Crisis Impact Overview
Yemen Analysis Ecosystem
Yemen: Drivers of food insecurity
The decade long conflict between the government and the Houthi movement escalated in 2015. The crisis has exacerbated historic vulnerabilities including chronic poverty, weak governance, corruption, over-dependence on imports, dwindling oil revenues, and water scarcity.? After President Hadi fled the capital Sana’a to the southern port city of Aden, an international coalition led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE began bombing Houthi-controlled areas. At least 24.1 million people in Yemen need humanitarian assistance.? In January 2019, some 64,000 people were in Catastrophe (IPC-5) levels of food insecurity, nearly 5 million people in Emergency (IPC-4) and 10.9 million in Crisis (IPC-3).?
Approximately 19.7 million people lack adequate healthcare, of whom 14 million are in acute need of assistance.? Around 300,000 suspected cholera cases and 578 deaths (CFR 0.19%) have been reported since the start of 2019.? From January to June 2019, there were 517,020 suspected cases and 755 deaths (CFR 0.15%) from cholera, which is already more suspected cases and deaths than what was recorded for the whole of 2018.? All governorates are affected, with 2,500 suspected cases reported daily. 17.8 million people lack access to WASH services, exacerbating the situation.? Fighting and bureaucracy restrict access to affected areas and the rainy season (April to August) will likely accelerate the spread of the disease. In Yemen, both rainy and dry conditions aggravate the spread of disease.
Widespread violations of international humanitarian law, including the targeting of civilians and civilian infrastructure by airstrikes and shelling, have resulted in loss of life, displacement, and destruction of infrastructure.? From the beginning of 2018 to the end of June 2019, approximately 6,850 civilian causalities and 2,650 civilian deaths have been recorded as a direct result of the fighting.? A UN-brokered ceasefire in December 2018 reduced violence in Al Hudaydah, however, fighting has continued on numerous active frontlines across the country. In 2019 an additional 300,000 people have been displaced bringing the total number of internally displaced people (IDPs) to an estimated 4 million people dispersed across all governorates. The majority having been displaced since March 2015.? Migrants and refugees, mostly from Ethiopia, continue to arrive in southern Yemen. April and May 2019 have seen some of the highest monthly averages of arrivals. IOM estimates that 18,320 refugees and migrants arrived in April 2019 and 18,904 people arrived in May 2019.? This is despite voluntary humanitarian return (VHR) flights coordinated by the Mixed Migration Working Group throughout May and June 2019 for migrants detained in informal detention centres with little to no services.
INFORM measures Yemen's risk of humanitarian crisis and disaster to be very high, at 7.8/10.?
14/09: On 13 September shelling in Al Hudaydah killed 11 civilians in one day. This attack came after the sixth meeting of the Redeployment Coordination Committee (RCC) which was held in the coast of Al Hudaydah between 8 and 9 September. The RCC agreed to deploy four monitoring teams to frontline locations in Al Hudaydah to sustain and monitor the ceasefire. Al Hudaydah recorded the highest civilian casualties in Yemen between June and August, with over 220 people injured or killed, more than 30% of all civilian casualties country wide. If the ceasefire fails, civilians in Al Hudaydah are at risk of injury or death. Renewed conflict would likely block the delivery of humanitarian aid and essential commodities from Al Hudaydah port.?
14/09: Fighting escalated in August in Aden, Abyan and Shabwah between Government of Yemen (GoY) forces and the Southern Transitional Council (STC). The situation is currently calm, but in mid-September both parties were deploying military reinforcements to Abyan, which could risk renewed fighting. Clashes between 7 and 28 August killed 25 civilians and injured 38. Fighting in Aden caused temporary damage to the water network, cut access to electricity and health service and trapped residents in their homes for several days. On 12 August 2019, Saudi Arabia announced a ceasefire. However, sporadic clashes continued across the south of Yemen. Talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, have so far failed to reach a result.??
Prolonged urban conflict in Aden would pose serious protection concerns for civilians in the South. Read about this risk here.
Insecurity, administrative constraints, entry restrictions, violence against humanitarian workers, and obstruction of civilian mobility hamper access. 6.5 million people live in hard-to-reach areas.?Fighting exacerbates access challenges, particularly in the heavily populated western coastal areas. High fuel prices limit transportation of aid, the mobility of affected populations and increase the price of commodities. Checkpoints, landmines and explosive remnants of war, damaged roads, and difficult terrain hinder movement. Armed actors have attempted to block aid from reaching groups suspected of disloyalty, directing it to groups more supportive of their agenda or selling it on the black market. Despite the blockade lifting in 2018, impediments to imports and aid, enforced by belligerent parties, hampers aid delivery. Access to basic goods may decrease if the UN brokered ceasefire fails and fighting resumes over the strategic Al Hudaydah port. The UN brokered ceasefire in December 2018 reduced violence around the port, but fighting increased elsewhere, including Hajjah and Al Dhale’e.?
Download the full Humanitarian Access Overview
Renewed street fighting in Aden could result in up to 4,500 civilian casualties over three months and cut access to services and markets for one million people.
Forces loyal to the separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC) ousted the internationally recognised government of Abd Rabu Mansour Hadi, took control of all strategic positions in Aden and declared a new government on 10 August 2019 after four days of intense street battles that left 40 people dead and 260 injured.?
Saudia Arabia announced a ceasefire on 12 August 2019 which restored some calm to the southern capital. However, talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on 20 August ended without a result. Clashes intensified in Shabwah and Abyan on 22 and 23 August 2019, spreading to Aden on 28 August 2019.? Social media reported retaliatory killing of civillians in Aden in late August and early September.
Failure of peace talks leading to prolonged urban fighting in Aden could result in up to 1,500 civilian casualties per month of sustained fighting. Casualties are likely to include civilians trapped by fighting, particularly in densely populated areas, and injured by explosive weapons, shelling, and airstrikes.
Prolonged fighting is likely to have a major impact on WASH and health infrastructure, further aggravating humanitarian needs. All of Aden’s one million resident are likely to be in need of humanitarian assistance with food, protection, WASH, and health the most urgent needs.
Aden's airport (one of only two still operating in Yemen) is an important lifeline for thousands of Yemenis who need to travel abroad to access medical services. Aden's port is also an important entry point for food, fuel and basic supplies. Both these pieces of key infrastructure would be closed by protracted conflict.
More than 50,000 northern traders, workers, and IDPs are in need of international protection against execution, deportation and retaliatory violence. More than 45,000 IDPs currently residing in Aden originate from northern governorates, mainly Al Hudaydah and Taizz, along with several thousand northerners working in the services and trade sectors. Since 2 August 2019, STC aligned forces have detained, harassed and executed males from the north at checkpoints, Aden’s central markets and at work.?
Read ACAPS' anticipatory briefing note - Aden: Collapse of ceasefire - to find out more.
Yemen Analysis Hub
The ACAPS Yemen Analysis Hub provides inter-sectoral, forward-looking analysis to support a stronger evidence base for humanitarian decision making in Yemen. Learn more about the Yemen Analysis Hub.
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Information Gaps and Needs
More granular information is required to better understand the specific needs of vulnerable groups.?