We looked into nine indicators to rank and compare the humanitarian access levels worldwide. Affected populations in more than 50 countries are not getting proper humanitarian assistance due to access constraints. Humanitarian access has deteriorated in Colombia, Iraq, Myanmar, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Somalia over the past six months. 13 new countries entered the ranking since the latest ACAPS Humanitarian Access report released in August 2018. Physical constraints and restriction/obstruction of access to services and assistance are the most common challenges.
The objective of ACAPS risk analysis is to enable humanitarian decision makers to understand potential future changes that would likely have humanitarian consequences. By exposing the more probable developments and understanding their impact, they can be included in planning and preparedness which should improve response.
At ACAPS, risk analysis enables us to ensure our monitoring of countries and crises is forward-looking and our consequent analysis more informed; gain advance warning about countries and crises on which we ought to report in more depth; and respond to specific requests for risk reports. All of which aim to inform the ACAPS audience, and thus the humanitarian community, of likely future events.
On 29 August, damage to Swar Chaung dam in Myanmar’s Bago Region led to flooding across four townships: Yedashe, Taungoo, Oktwin and Kyaut Gyi. Flooding affected at least 85 villages and by 7 September, some 78,500 people from the four townships had to leave their homes. Hundreds of houses were damaged or destroyed, and more than 60,000 acres of farmland were flooded. As of 6 September, flooding had led to the closure of 325 schools, as infrastructure and materials were damaged.
This report compares current humanitarian crises based on their level of humanitarian access. Affected populations in more than 40 countries are not getting proper humanitarian assistance due to access constraints. Out of 44 countries included in the report, nearly half of them are currently facing critical humanitarian access constraints, with four countries (Eritrea, Syria, Venezuela, and Yemen) being considered as inaccessible. Moderate humanitarian access constraints are an issue in eight countries, and 15 face low humanitarian access constraints.
Escalation of conflict in Kachin state between the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the Myanmar Army has resulted in over 5,000 people being internally displaced since the beginning of April. High levels of cross-sectoral needs are reported among those newly displaced and protection of the civilian population in conflict-affected areas is of major concern, due to ongoing violence and reports of indiscriminate shelling. Over 2,000 IDPs are stranded in the forest, unable to access assistance.
Humanitarian Overview 2018 examines major humanitarian crises worldwide to identify likely developments and corresponding needs. The report focuses on countries where the crisis trend indicates a deterioration in 2018 and a corresponding increase in need. It also includes countries where crisis is not predicted to worsen, but is likely to remain severe: Ethiopia, Iraq, Nigeria, Palestine, Sudan, and Syria. Across these countries, food security, displacement, health, and protection are expected
to be the most pressing humanitarian needs in 2018.
As of 21 November, an estimated 622,000 Rohingya refugees fled Myanmar to Bangladesh. The influx began on 25 August, after the Myanmar Army launched security operations in northern Rakhine state. In September, an average of approximately 14,500 people arrived daily. This dropped to an approximate average of 3,100 arrivals per day in October. The estimated number of people in need was 1.2 million in the latest Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) of October 2017. This number was comprised of the pre-existing caseload of Rohingya in Bangladesh (government estimates of 300,000), the new influx since 25 August (at 509,000 on 3 October), people in host communities (300,000), and a contingency for a further 91,000 people.
As of 5 November, some 609,000 people have fled northern Rakhine state in Myanmar to Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh following an eruption of violence on 25 August. A large number have likely also been internally displaced within Rakhine state, but data is not available on this. The Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), an insurgent group, launched multiple attacks on government posts in Rakhine state, to which the Myanmar military responded with heavy force. However, it has been reported that military clearance operations targeting Rohingya may have begun prior to the ARSA attack. There are high levels of need among Rohingya both in Cox’s Bazar and also likely among IDPs in northern Rakhine. Rohingya in central Rakhine have also been affected to a lesser extent.
Some 270,000 people have fled Rakhine state in Myanmar to Bangladesh following an eruption of violence on 25 August. The Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), an Islamic insurgent group, launched multiple attacks on government posts in Rakhine state, and Myanmar security forces then launched counter attacks causing mass displacement. An estimated 400,000 Rohingya are still trapped in conflict zones of Rakhine state, where needs are unknown and access virtually impossible. In Bangladesh, the sudden influx, on top of an existing crisis, means needs are high. In addition to the 270,000 who have fled so far, a further 40,000 are stranded in an accessible area near the border after being stopped by border guards.
Three border posts along the Myanmar–Bangladesh border were attacked on 9 October by Harakah al-Yaqin, a resurgent group in Rakhine state which has supposed links to the Rohingya. In response, the Myanmar Army has deployed more troops into the northern Rakhine area, mainly in Maungdaw, and has conducted a security operation. At least 130 people have since been killed in raids and skirmishes. A state of emergency has been declared.
The Crisis Overview 2015: Humanitarian Trends and Risks for 2016, outlines the countries considered to be in greatest humanitarian need as we approach the end of 2015.
Based on our weekly Global Emergency Overview (GEO), and three years of data on humanitarian needs across 150 countries, we have identified eleven countries where humanitarian needs are likely to be highest in 2016, as well as seven that merit attention, as they face a potential spike in needs. A final section considers the potential impact of the current El Niño event across a number of regions.