• Crisis Severity ?
    2.8
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Impact ?
    2.7
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Humanitarian Conditions ?
    3.0
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Complexity ?
    2.5
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Access Constraints ?
     
    No constraints
    Extreme constraints

Key figures

  • 1,235,000 People affected [?]
  • 1,065,000 People displaced [?]

Overview

21/05/2019

Rakhine state is one of the poorest in Myanmar, and had an official population of 3.1 million residents in 2014, as well as some 1.2 million Rohingyas, which were not counted in the national census.?Starting in 1978, Rakhine has seen numerous incidents of state violence against its Rohingya population.? Since August 2017, violence from the Myanmar Army has triggered the displacement of more than 741,000 Rohingyas from Rakhine to Bangladesh. Currently there are some 910,619 Rohingyas in Bangladesh.? In Rakhine, around 128,000 Rohingya remain displaced since 2012 due to conflict, and are living in camps in Rakhine. They remain confined in the camps, and are denied basic human rights.?

Since January 2019 fighting between the Myanmar Army and the Arakan Army, an ethnic armed organisation, has escalated in northern Rakhine. At least 27,000 people have been displaced by the conflict, taking shelter in Ponnakyun, Kyauktaw, Mrauk-U, Minbya, Rathedaung, and Buthidaung townships.?

Latest Developments

25/06/2019

25/06: Humanitarian access in Myanmar deteriorates, as on 21 June the Government restricted internet access in nine townships in the conflict areas of Rakhine and Chin states.? Episodes of violence between the Arakan Army (AA) group and Myanmar Army continue. On 19 June, the Myanmar Army conducted helicopter attacks in Minbya township in central Rakhine, causing the temporary displacement of some 400 people. On 20 June, the Arakan Army attacked a navy vessel in the creek of Set Yoe Kya, near Sittwe, killing two soldiers and injuring several others. Some 23,000 people are believed to be still displaced in Rakhine and Chin states.?

16/05: Residents of Kyauk Tan village in Rakhine's Rathedaung township face severe food and water needs, after the Myanmar Army raided the village on 30 April and detained some 275 civilian men for two weeks. Humanitarian access is restricted, and residents are not allowed to leave the village. Local media reports state that villagers are running out of food and drinking water.
Moreover, the ongoing conflict between the Myanmar Army and AA continues to drive internal displacement. The number of IDPs in 2019 in Rakhine has grown to 29,234 people, as of 7 May.? 

Humanitarian Access

21/05/2019

VERY HIGH CONSTRAINTS

Humanitarian access has decreased in Myanmar overall. In Rakhine state, the government has imposed severe travel restrictions on aid workers. An escalation in fighting between the Arakan Army and Myanmar army since January 2019 has caused increasing constraints for the vulnerable population in rural townships in northern and central Rakhine state. Restrictions on freedom of movement causes limited access to health facilities for Rohingya and other Muslims, including internally displaced people in central Rakhine. The Myanmar military has been accused of blocking relief supplies to people displaced in Rakhine state.

Download the full Humanitarian Access Overview

Escalation of conflict between Myanmar Army and Arakan Army group in Rakhine

Latest update: 23/06/2019

Probability

Highly unlikely Somewhat likely Highly likely

Impact

Very low Moderate Major

Episodes of violence between the Myanmar Army and the Arakan Army (AA) group have continued, as have the related flows of internal displacement.? While not a major escalation since the publication of ACAPS’ previous risk report, the clashes between the two parties have caused civilian deaths and created new humanitarian needs, or exacerbated existing ones.? The latest figures show that at least 27,000 people remain displaced as of late May, a slight decrease compared to earlier figures at the beginning of the month.? 

In May the AA was again excluded by the Army in a unilateral ceasefire extension in May, thus the likelihood of fighting continuing over the coming months seems high.?

This risk was identified in the ACAPS March Quarterly Risk Report.

Read this risk