Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)3.10 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.2.70 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.3.00 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.3.60 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian access constraints.4.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
Rakhine state is one of the poorest in Myanmar, and had an official population of 3.1 million residents in 2014, as well as some 1.2 million Rohingyas, which were not counted in the national census.?Starting in 1978, Rakhine has seen numerous incidents of state violence against its Rohingya population.? Since August 2017, violence from the Myanmar Army has triggered the displacement of more than 741,000 Rohingyas from Rakhine to Bangladesh. Currently there are some 910,619 Rohingyas in Bangladesh.? In Rakhine, around 128,000 Rohingya remain displaced since 2012 due to conflict, and are living in camps in Rakhine. They remain confined in the camps, and are denied basic human rights.?
Since January 2019 fighting between the Myanmar Army and the Arakan Army, an ethnic armed organisation, has escalated in northern Rakhine. At least 27,000 people have been displaced by the conflict, taking shelter in Ponnakyun, Kyauktaw, Mrauk-U, Minbya, Rathedaung, and Buthidaung townships.?
No significant recent humanitarian developments. This crisis is being monitored by our analysis team.
VERY HIGH CONSTRAINTS
Humanitarian access has decreased in Myanmar overall. In Rakhine state, the government has imposed severe travel restrictions on aid workers. An escalation in fighting between the Arakan Army and Myanmar army since January 2019 has caused increasing constraints for the vulnerable population in rural townships in northern and central Rakhine state. Restrictions on freedom of movement causes limited access to health facilities for Rohingya and other Muslims, including internally displaced people in central Rakhine. The Myanmar military has been accused of blocking relief supplies to people displaced in Rakhine state.
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Episodes of violence between the Myanmar Army and the Arakan Army (AA) group have continued, as have the related flows of internal displacement.? While not a major escalation since the publication of ACAPS’ previous risk report, the clashes between the two parties have caused civilian deaths and created new humanitarian needs, or exacerbated existing ones.? The latest figures show that at least 27,000 people remain displaced as of late May, a slight decrease compared to earlier figures at the beginning of the month.?
In May the AA was again excluded by the Army in a unilateral ceasefire extension in May, thus the likelihood of fighting continuing over the coming months seems high.?
This risk was identified in the ACAPS March Quarterly Risk Report.