Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)3.70 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.3.10 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.3.90 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.4.00 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian access constraints.4.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
Myanmar: Internet shutdown in Rakhine and Chin state
Rakhine is one of the poorest and least developed states in the country. It is home to the Rohingya, a primarily Muslim and persecuted minority in Myanmar facing repression and discrimination. They are considered illegal immigrants from Bangladesh, which renders them stateless.?
Since 1978, Rakhine has seen numerous incidents of state violence against its Rohingya population. An extreme episode of violence beginning in August 2017 triggered the displacement of more than 700,000 Rohingya from Rakhine to Bangladesh; currently, over 920,000 Rohingya are living in refugee camps in Bangladesh. There are 600,000 Rohingya currently in Rakhine; 470,000 are not considered displaced but are stateless, and over 130,000 are confined to camps or camp-like settings in central Rakhine. They continue to face extreme restrictions on their freedom of movement, segregation, marginalisation, extortion, and trafficking. They also face limited access to healthcare, education, and livelihood opportunities.?
The Arakan Army (AA) – a Rakhine ethnic armed group – has led an insurgency in the state that escalated between January 2019 and November 2020 and resulted in hundreds of casualties and extensive damage to civilian infrastructure, including schools. In the past few years, the AA has made significant strides in controlling the state, especially in the northern and central parts. After an informal ceasefire between the AA and the Myanmar military that lasted around two years, tensions significantly escalated in 2022, leading to a wider conflict which ceased due to another temporary truce. The AA claims to seek self-determination for the multiethnic people of Rakhine state.?
Continued conflict and socioeconomic distress are worsening the humanitarian situation in Myanmar. 17.6 million people are expected to be in need of humanitarian assistance in 2023, a 22% increase from 2022. The junta has planned elections that are not supported by anti-coup resistance groups and major ethnic armed organisations for August 2023. There is no relief from political instability in sight, and armed conflict is expected to rise. 1.4 million people are projected to be newly displaced in 2023 as a result of continued conflict, possibly increasing the total number of IDPs in the country to 2.7 million. Cold weather is expected to last till February, and those currently displaced are in need of winterisation support, including blankets, shoes, and warm clothes. 15.2 million people are estimated to be facing moderate or severe food insecurity in 2023, two million more than in 2022. Agricultural households, smallholder farmers, and those depending on livestock farming are the most vulnerable to food insecurity because of a combination of issues, including reduced access to agricultural inputs and the decrease in the farm gate prices of their produce. ?