Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)3.70 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.2.90 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.4.10 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.3.70 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian access constraints.4.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
The political and security situation in Myanmar’s Kachin and northern Shan states is complex.
In Kachin, a 17-year ceasefire broke down in 2011, reigniting a decades-long conflict between the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and the Tatmadaw, the Myanmar armed forces. While there has been limited active conflict and few armed clashes in Kachin since August 2018 till the 2021 coup, seven years of conflict have resulted in humanitarian needs, with limited humanitarian access in the affected areas. Since the coup, there has been intense fighting in the state. The KIA also has been cooperating with the People’s Defence Forces (PDFs) – the anti-coup resistance groups. In northern Shan state, intense fighting has taken place since January 2018 and has worsened since December 2020 and since the coup. In Shan state, there are an estimated seven EAOs, 20 militia groups, and seven Border Guard Forces actively engaged in an armed independence movement, both between one another and against the Myanmar government. ?
Years of conflict in Kachin have resulted in widespread food insecurity, disruption of government services, economic stagnation, and protracted displacement. Armed clashes, human rights violations, and landmine contamination pose a significant protection risk across both states. Access restrictions for humanitarian organisations and active conflict have eroded the coping capacity of communities in Kachin and Shan – two of the most impoverished states in Myanmar, and both extremely vulnerable to shocks.?
Around 110,000 people are internally displaced across both Kachin and northern Shan states. In Kachin, around 95,000 people have been living in IDP camps since 2011. At least 35% of IDPs across the state live in areas that are non-government controlled or contested. In northern Shan, over 15,000 are in protracted displacement.?
Continued conflict and socioeconomic distress are worsening the humanitarian situation in Myanmar. 17.6 million people are expected to be in need of humanitarian assistance in 2023, a 22% increase from 2022. The junta has planned elections that are not supported by anti-coup resistance groups and major ethnic armed organisations for August 2023. There is no relief from political instability in sight, and armed conflict is expected to rise. 1.4 million people are projected to be newly displaced in 2023 as a result of continued conflict, possibly increasing the total number of IDPs in the country to 2.7 million. Cold weather is expected to last till February, and those currently displaced are in need of winterisation support, including blankets, shoes, and warm clothes. 15.2 million people are estimated to be facing moderate or severe food insecurity in 2023, two million more than in 2022. Agricultural households, smallholder farmers, and those depending on livestock farming are the most vulnerable to food insecurity because of a combination of issues, including reduced access to agricultural inputs and the decrease in the farm gate prices of their produce. ?