Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)4.40 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.4.40 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.4.50 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.4.20 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian access constraints.5.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
CrisisInSIght: Global Risk Analysis
The humanitarian situation in Myanmar is driven by longstanding localised conflicts between Myanmar’s armed forces (the Tatmadaw) and various insurgent groups, including militias and ethnic armed organisations. The ethnically diverse population of Myanmar has been under military rule from 1962 until 2011, and the military has since shared power with the government as per the 2008 constitution. On 1 February 2021, the Tatmadaw staged a military coup, declaring fraud in the November 2020 multiparty general election won by the National League for Democracy. Around 695,000 people have been internally displaced in Myanmar since the coup. 14.4 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance in 2022. The total number of IDPs is more than 1 million in the country and more than a million have been displaced to Bangladesh, Malaysia, and Thailand.?
Protection is a key concern across Myanmar as armed conflict and violations of international humanitarian law by the Tatmadaw and armed groups continue to affect civilians. Access to basic services is limited and livelihoods are threatened by conflict and lack of economic opportunities, particularly for the stateless Rohingya in Rakhine and for IDPs living in non-government controlled areas in northern Shan.?
No significant recent humanitarian developments. This crisis is being monitored by our analysis team.
Myanmar faced Extreme humanitarian access constraints in the past six months, scoring 5/5 in ACAPS Humanitarian Access Index. The humanitarian access situation has been deteriorating mainly due to significant rise of violence and insecurity, bureaucratic and administrative constraints for both people in need and humanitarian workers, and imposition of roadblocks and checkpoints and telecommunications cut-off. There also has been a rise in attacks on public infrastructure.
For more information you can consult our latest Global Humanitarian Access Overview – July 2022.
UPDATE FROM THE MARCH 2021 RISK ANALYSIS
The militarisation of political space and public sphere and escalation of violence by military junta results in greater access constraints, worsening of needs, and heightened protection concerns, particularly for ethnic minority groups
The risk of militarisation of the political space and the escalation of violence in Myanmar largely materialised in the past six months. Following the military coup on 1 February 2021, the military junta established the State Administrative Council and imposed a year-long state of emergency, later extended until August 2023. The declaration allowed the junta to consolidate power without holding elections?.
Two competing governments contest governance: the military junta and the opposition shadow National Unity Government formed after the coup?. The National Unity Government holds no real control over Myanmar but retains the support of the Civil Disobedience Movement, the anti-coup armed resistance People’s Defence Force (PDF), and several ethnic armed groups. The anti-coup resistance (including the People’s Defence Force, the Civil Disobedience Movement, and other protesters) was met with military arrests, detentions, and the disproportionate use of violence – particularly in areas where both the People’s Defence Force and ethnic armed groups are active?.
Over 1,000 civilian casualties were reported during protests in the seven months after the coup?. Military clashes with anti-coup armed resistance forces resulted in large-scale displacement in new regions, mainly in the southeast, where over 140,000 people have remained displaced since May?...
Protection: All states affected by conflict experience armed clashes and landmine contamination. Human rights violations, including arbitrary detention, extortion, and torture, threaten the safety of civilians.?
WASH: IDPs have limited access to clean water and sanitation facilities. Both the March–May dry season and the May–September monsoon season increase the reliance of IDPs on contaminated water, elevating the risk of waterborne diseases.?
Food security: Escalation of conflict has resulted in reduced levels of food security and limited economic and physical access to food. Subsistence farming and casual labour continue to be the main sources of income for most households, with movement restrictions substantially limiting economic access to food. The monsoon season further reduces food stocks and impacts crop yields.?
Health: Limited access to healthcare, and reliance on humanitarian support to provide health services, remains a key priority in response across Myanmar. Mental health and psychosocial assistance for those affected by armed conflict is required, as well as improving the provision of reproductive, maternal, and newborn healthcare.?