• Crisis Severity ?
    2.8
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Impact ?
    3.1
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Humanitarian Conditions ?
    2.5
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Complexity ?
    3.2
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Access Constraints ?
    3.0
    No constraints
    Extreme constraints

Key figures

  • 3,541,000 People affected [?]
  • 1,313,000 People displaced [?]

Overview

03/05/2019

At least 941,000 people in Myanmar are in need of assistance. The driver of humanitarian needs is the longstanding conflict between the Myanmar Army and various ethnic armed groups. ? 

In Rakhine conflict escalated in August 2017 when ARSA fighters attacked police and military posts. The army retaliated with a violent crackdown against the Rohingya population, causing over 700,000 people to flee to neighbouring Bangladesh, adding to the approximately 200,000 refugees that were already living in Cox’s Bazar. Almost 128,000 people are still living in IDP camps in Rakhine, as of 31 January. ? Additionally, since January 2019 fighting between the Myanmar Army and the Arakan Army has escalated in northern Rakhine. By 6 April 2019, some 27,000 people have been newly displaced, and are living in temporary shelters in Ponnakyun, Kyauktaw, Mrauk-U, Minbya, Rathedaung, and Buthidaung townships.  ?

About 105,138 people are internally displaced in northern Shan and Kachin states due to conflict. Almost 38,000 people, or 35% of the IDPs, live in non-government-controlled areas, where access is limited or restricted. ?

For 2019, INFORM measures Myanmar's risk of humanitarian crisis and disaster at 6.6/10. The country scored particularly high in the "Hazard and exposure" category, at 8.6/10. 

Latest Developments

02/05/2019

16/05: Residents of Kyauk Tan village in Rakhine's Rathedaung Township face severe food and water needs, after the Myanmar Army raided the village on 30 April and detained some 275 civilian men for two weeks. Humanitarian access is restricted, and residents are not allowed to leave the village. Local media reports state that villagers are running out of food and drinking water.
Moreover, the ongoing conflict between the Myanmar Army and AA continues to drive internal displacement. The number of IDPs in 2019 in Rakhine has grown to 29,234 people, as of 7 May.?

Humanitarian Access

02/05/2019

VERY HIGH CONSTRAINTS

Humanitarian access has decreased in Myanmar overall. In Rakhine state, the government has imposed severe travel restrictions on aid workers. An escalation in fighting between the Arakan Army and Myanmar army since January 2019 has caused increasing constraints for the vulnerable population in rural townships in northern and central Rakhine state. Restrictions on freedom of movement causes limited access to health facilities for Rohingya and other Muslims, including internally displaced people in central Rakhine. The Myanmar military has been accused of blocking relief supplies to people displaced in Rakhine state.

In Kachin and Shan states, ongoing violence has restricted access, affecting particularly the delivery of non-food items, assistance to improve the living conditions, and protection support.

Download the full Humanitarian Access Overview

Escalation of conflict between Myanmar Army and Arakan Army group in Rakhine

Latest update: 23/06/2019

Probability

Highly unlikely Somewhat likely Highly likely

Impact

Very low Moderate Major

Episodes of violence between the Myanmar Army and the Arakan Army (AA) group have continued, as have the related flows of internal displacement.? While not a major escalation since the publication of ACAPS’ previous risk report, the clashes between the two parties have caused civilian deaths and created new humanitarian needs, or exacerbated existing ones.? The latest figures show that at least 27,000 people remain displaced as of late May, a slight decrease compared to earlier figures at the beginning of the month.? 

In May the AA was again excluded by the Army in a unilateral ceasefire extension in May, thus the likelihood of fighting continuing over the coming months seems high.?

This risk was identified in the ACAPS March Quarterly Risk Report.

Read this risk

Information Gaps and Needs

02/05/2019
  • Access constraints in Rakhine state prevent a clear indication of needs among the Rohingya.
  • Access constraints in Kachin and Shan states make it difficult to assess the needs of IDPs in the area.
  • Protracted IDPs in southeastern states are provided aid by a durable solutions framework; updates on their needs are infrequent.
  • Limited information is available on nutrition levels.