Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)4.40 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.4.50 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.4.50 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.4.20 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian access constraints.5.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
CrisisInSIght: Global Risk Analysis
The humanitarian situation in Myanmar is driven by longstanding localised conflicts between Myanmar’s armed forces (the Tatmadaw) and various insurgent groups, including militias and ethnic armed organisations. The ethnically diverse population of Myanmar has been under military rule from 1962 until 2011, and the military has since shared power with the government as per the 2008 constitution. On 1 February 2021, the Tatmadaw staged a military coup, declaring fraud in the November 2020 multiparty general election won by the National League for Democracy. Around 695,000 people have been internally displaced in Myanmar since the coup. 14.4 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance in 2022. The total number of IDPs is more than 1 million in the country and more than a million have been displaced to Bangladesh, Malaysia, and Thailand.?
Protection is a key concern across Myanmar as armed conflict and violations of international humanitarian law by the Tatmadaw and armed groups continue to affect civilians. Access to basic services is limited and livelihoods are threatened by conflict and lack of economic opportunities, particularly for the stateless Rohingya in Rakhine and for IDPs living in non-government controlled areas in northern Shan.?
Continued conflict and socioeconomic distress are worsening the humanitarian situation in Myanmar. 17.6 million people are expected to be in need of humanitarian assistance in 2023, a 22% increase from 2022. The junta has planned elections that are not supported by anti-coup resistance groups and major ethnic armed organisations for August 2023. There is no relief from political instability in sight, and armed conflict is expected to rise. 1.4 million people are projected to be newly displaced in 2023 as a result of continued conflict, possibly increasing the total number of IDPs in the country to 2.7 million. Cold weather is expected to last till February, and those currently displaced are in need of winterisation support, including blankets, shoes, and warm clothes. 15.2 million people are estimated to be facing moderate or severe food insecurity in 2023, two million more than in 2022. Agricultural households, smallholder farmers, and those depending on livestock farming are the most vulnerable to food insecurity because of a combination of issues, including reduced access to agricultural inputs and the decrease in the farm gate prices of their produce.?
Extreme access constraints persist in Myanmar. Around 600,000 Rohingya people in Rakhine state continue to be denied citizenship and face movement restrictions and a lack of access to services and aid. They are confined to displacement camps fenced by barbed wires or to their villages, and it is illegal for the Rohingya to leave Rakhine state. Since late September, the junta has been instructing the closure of IDP camps in Kachin, Rakhine, and northern Shan states (some by the end of the year and some by April 2023), potentially denying IDPs of aid. Many IDPs in Kayah state have also been living in jungles for months to escape conflict between the military and armed resistance groups, leading them to lack access to assistance.
People living in non-government-controlled areas (NGCAs), including Kachin, Rakhine, and Shan states, usually have less access to aid and assistance as authorisations for humanitarian response in such areas have generally been denied. Many other IDPs reside in remote areas, for example near the Thai border, also lacking access to aid and services.
Renewed conflict between the Arakan Army and the military has resulted in both parties implementing heightened security measures across Rakhine, including the blockage of waterways and roads in the north, limiting people’s movement and obstructing aid delivery. Security measures in other states, including checkpoints, roadblocks, and curfews, continue to constrain the movement of people, goods, and aid.
In 2022, the junta suspended all registration for civil society organisations and the renewal process for those whose registrations expired in December 2021. In late October, the junta also enacted the Organisation Registration Law, prohibiting any organisation from operating without a registration certificate or working with unregistered affiliates.
Visa delays, banking restrictions, and tax issues constrain the import of medical supplies, affecting humanitarian response. In September, the junta instructed UN agencies and international and local NGOs operating in several townships in Rakhine to halt their operations, affecting aid distribution in IDP camps.
Violence and fighting continue to affect humanitarian access. The military’s restrictions on the passage of humanitarian items, including food and medicine, affect conflict-affected areas, with claims that these items could be distributed to anti-coup and ethnic armed groups. Fewer violent events against aid workers have been reported in the last six months compared to the previous period. Flooding and heavy rainfall in Kachin, Rakhine, and Shan have disrupted humanitarian response.
For more information you can consult our latest Global Humanitarian Access Overview – December 2022.
Protection: All states affected by conflict experience armed clashes and landmine contamination. Human rights violations, including arbitrary detention, extortion, and torture, threaten the safety of civilians.?
WASH: IDPs have limited access to clean water and sanitation facilities. Both the March–May dry season and the May–September monsoon season increase the reliance of IDPs on contaminated water, elevating the risk of waterborne diseases.?
Food security: Escalation of conflict has resulted in reduced levels of food security and limited economic and physical access to food. Subsistence farming and casual labour continue to be the main sources of income for most households, with movement restrictions substantially limiting economic access to food. The monsoon season further reduces food stocks and impacts crop yields.?
Health: Limited access to healthcare, and reliance on humanitarian support to provide health services, remains a key priority in response across Myanmar. Mental health and psychosocial assistance for those affected by armed conflict is required, as well as improving the provision of reproductive, maternal, and newborn healthcare.?