This report assesses the current and anticipated global humanitarian impacts of the conflict between US–Israel and Iran. It examines how the severity of the shocks transmitted through energy and fertiliser markets, trade routes, financial flows, humanitarian logistics, and regional political instability intersect with existing humanitarian needs and limited coping capacity.

The conflict’s trajectory carries significant humanitarian implications in numerous contexts across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region and beyond. To help humanitarian planners manage the highly uncertain operating environment, this report describes the four most likely scenarios for the coming six months.

This report examines the interlinked impacts of the Afghanistan–Pakistan and Middle East conflicts on Afghanistan’s trade, along with associated humanitarian impacts. The report identifies both current and anticipated impacts over the coming six months to inform response planning and design, and explores anticipated impacts up to and beyond 12 months where relevant and possible. 

Since 2 March 2026, intensified conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has triggered a major humanitarian crisis in Lebanon. Over one million people have been displaced, with 3,412 killed and more than 10,000 injured (IOM 02/06/2026; OCHA 30/05/2026). Israeli operations expanded significantly in late May, and by 1 June, approximately 2,000 km² – nearly one‑fifth of Lebanon – was under Israeli control, marking the largest incurion in 26 years 

LPG has been  life-changing in the Rohingya refugee camps (Bangladesh), but the US - Israel military offensive against Iran is putting supply at risk.