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Country analysis

Ukraine


After the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2014, in February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion from Russian and Belarusian territory into northern, eastern, and southern Ukraine. This has resulted in mass displacement within Ukraine and abroad, mostly to the EU.

As at January 2024, six million refugees from Ukraine remained abroad. As at December 2023, the country had 3.5 million registered IDPs, with 110,000 in collective sites. At the same time, 4.5 million displaced people had temporarily or permanently moved back to their places of residence. They often report the heavy destruction of houses and infrastructure and constrained access to utilities and basic services. As at August 2023, the war had damaged or destroyed 1.4 million homes, mostly in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Luhansk, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia.

In 2024, 14.6 million people are estimated to need humanitarian assistance, including the 3.3 million living in the frontline settlements in eastern and southern Ukraine. They face the most severe needs, including protection, shelter, WASH, and livelihoods. The main unmet needs for those in other areas are healthcare, livelihoods, and protection. In 2022, seven million people had fallen below the poverty line of USD 6.85 per day given the conflict's socioeconomic impact.

(Atlantic Council 14/02/2023, UNHCR accessed 30/01/2024, OCHA 03/01/2024, IOM 16/01/2024, WB 30/11/2023)

After the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2014, in February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion from Russian and Belarusian territory into northern, eastern, and southern Ukraine. This has resulted in mass displacement within Ukraine and abroad, mostly to the EU.

As at January 2024, six million refugees from Ukraine remained abroad. As at December 2023, the country had 3.5 million registered IDPs, with 110,000 in collective sites. At the same time, 4.5 million displaced people had temporarily or permanently moved back to their places of residence. They often report the heavy destruction of houses and infrastructure and constrained access to utilities and basic services. As at August 2023, the war had damaged or destroyed 1.4 million homes, mostly in Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Luhansk, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia.

In 2024, 14.6 million people are estimated to need humanitarian assistance, including the 3.3 million living in the frontline settlements in eastern and southern Ukraine. They face the most severe needs, including protection, shelter, WASH, and livelihoods. The main unmet needs for those in other areas are healthcare, livelihoods, and protection. In 2022, seven million people had fallen below the poverty line of USD 6.85 per day given the conflict's socioeconomic impact.

(Atlantic Council 14/02/2023, UNHCR accessed 30/01/2024, OCHA 03/01/2024, IOM 16/01/2024, WB 30/11/2023)

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21 May 2024

On 20 May 2024, Ukraine introduced countrywide energy supply restrictions for households and industries as a result of significant power shortage. Widespread Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy facilities between March–May 2024 reduced Ukraine's thermal power generation capacity by 80%. The emergency blackouts are scheduled during late evenings and nights and are likely to last until August. (NYT 20/05/2024, Kyiv Independent 16/05/2024, Reuters 13/05/2024)

14 May 2024

On 10 May 2024, Russian forces launched a cross-border offensive in Kharkivska oblast. Settlements near the border are under increased shelling, especially Vovchansk town. By 15 May, the offensive had killed at least eight civilians and injured 35. An estimated 8,000 people, including more than 600 children, had evacuated from frontline and border hromadas. Over 14,000 people (out of 60,000) were estimated to have fled from Derhachivska, Lypetska, Starosaltivska, Tsyrkunivska, Vovchanska, and Zolochivska hromadas. Humanitarians and volunteers transported 2,100 civilians to Kharkiv city, who registered at the city’s transit centre. Another 1,700 registered after self-evacuating. Needs include hygiene supplies, clothes, bedding, and other everyday items, as well as cash assistance and mental health and psychosocial services. Many, especially older people, waited until the last moment to evacuate and left behind phones and documents. Attacks on critical infrastructure disrupted electricity access for 200,000 families. (OCHA 14/05/2024, OCHA 15/05/2024, IRC 13/05/2024)

02 January 2024

Over 40 people were killed and more than 220 injured in massive Russian airstrikes across Ukraine between 29 December 2023 and 2 January 2024. Among the targeted locations were the cities of Dnipro, Kharkiv, Kyiv, Lviv, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia, as well as villages and towns in Chernihivska, Dnipropetrovska, Donetska, Kharkivska, Khersonska, Sumska, and Zaporizka oblasts. The most affected areas were cities of Kharkiv and Kyiv and frontline communities. Missiles, drones, and associated debris caused damage and destruction to homes, schools, warehouses, and hospitals. The attacks caused further disruption to electricity, water supply, and public transport. Air raid sirens and damage to homes forced hundreds of thousands of people to take shelter or evacuate. In Donetska oblast, where more than 120 localities were already without electricity, damage to a power plant has disrupted electricity production. In Kyiv city and oblast, damage to the overhead line left over 260,000 people without power supply. (Pravda 02/01/2024, OCHA 01/01/2024, The Kyiv Independent 02/01/2024)

05 December 2023

In Luhansk oblast, critical access to vaccination against tuberculosis for newborns has been delayed by several months. Vaccines against diphtheria, whooping cough, and tetanus are also unavailable in some cities. Almost all medical facilities have been turned into military hospitals, and most medical care can be obtained only with a Russian passport. (Suspilne 04/12/2023, Luhansk VTSA Telegram 04/08/2023, OCHA 06/11/2023)

28 November 2023

As at November 2023, food access was constrained in 80% of settlements near the front line in Donetsk, Kharkiv, and Luhansk oblasts. More than 900,000 people live within 30km of the front line, where active fighting has resulted in acute humanitarian needs and challenging and uncertain humanitarian access. Access to Russian-controlled areas remains extremely constrained. (UNSC 21/11/2023, OCHA 23/11/2023)

22 November 2023

Since the 2022 conflict escalation, the number of missing people in Ukraine has significantly increased. In May 2023, the Government launched a unified register of missing civilians and soldiers. As at October 2023, more than 26,000 people in Ukraine were missing, 11,000 of whom were civilians. The oblast with the highest number of missing people was Donetsk. (Kyiv 24 05/10/2023, Yur Gazeta 01/11/2023, Justice Info 29/09/2023)

17 November 2023

As at 11 November 2023, power disruptions resulting from Russian attacks on energy infrastructure across six oblasts (Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, and Sumy) were affecting 4,500 people. The Ukrainian Government has recorded at least 60 attacks involving both ground and air strikes since September 2023. (The Kyiv Independent 11/11/2023, Military Media Center 16/11/2023, Atlantic Council 22/09/2023)

current crises
in Ukraine


These crises have been identified through the INFORM Severity Index, a tool for measuring and comparing the severity of humanitarian crises globally.

Read more about the Index

UKR002 - Russia-Ukraine conflict

Last updated 17/05/2024


Drivers

Conflict
Displacement

Crisis level

Country

Severity level

4.5 Very High

Access constraints

5.0

Analysis products
on Ukraine

Ukraine: crisis severity in administrative regions

27 May 2024

Ukraine: crisis severity in administrative regions

DOCUMENT / PDF / 6 MB

This report analyses the Ukraine Severity Model, which regularly tracks contextual, humanitarian, and conflict-related data available from diverse sources and consolidates these, providing a severity score for each administrative region (oblast) of Ukraine. The focus of the analysis is between early 2022 and March 2024.
 

UkraineConflict and violenceHumanitarian access
Ukraine: quarterly humanitarian access update

26 April 2024

Ukraine: quarterly humanitarian access update

DOCUMENT / PDF / 6 MB

This analysis is based on changes in the access severity model between 1 January and 31 March 2024, which ACAPS developed using data collected from secondary sources and four interviews with international humanitarian responders conducted between 1–10 April 2024.

Humanitarian access

Attached resources

Ukraine: update on scenarios and outlook into 2024

29 February 2024

Ukraine: update on scenarios and outlook into 2024

DOCUMENT / PDF / 458 KB

This report aims to update the probability of the original scenarios developed in 2023. It highlights key developments since July 2023 and the main events to watch in 2024. 

Anticipatory analysis
Ukraine: quarterly humanitarian access update

06 February 2024

Ukraine: quarterly humanitarian access update

DOCUMENT / PDF / 10 MB

This report aims to compare access challenges across different Ukraine oblasts to inform humanitarian responders and support their decision-making. It is part of the ACAPS quarterly analysis of access constraints, with the last report published on 8 November 2023.

Humanitarian access
Ukraine: humanitarian implications of mine contamination 

24 January 2024

Ukraine: humanitarian implications of mine contamination 

DOCUMENT / PDF / 1 MB

This report aims to improve awareness and understanding of the extent and impact of EO contamination in Ukraine, the response to it, and the challenges that responders are facing. 
 

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Interactive dashboards

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