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Country analysis

Ukraine


The Russia-Ukraine conflict started in 2014 and escalated into a full-scale Russian invasion in 2022, triggering mass displacement within Ukraine and abroad. Over 3.6 million people had been internally displaced by December 2024. By February 2025, 6.9 million refugees were living outside the country.

12.7 million people are estimated to need humanitarian assistance in 2025 because of the impacts of war, mainly on protection, WASH, health, shelter and NFIs, and livelihoods. The humanitarian conditions along the front line are the most severe, but also along the border with Russia across Kharkivska and Sumska oblasts. Humanitarian access to occupied areas in the southeastern oblasts of Ukraine and the highest-risk areas closest to the front line remains highly constrained. Donetska oblast remained at the centre of the most intense Russian ground offensives in early 2025.

Countrywide missile and drone attacks, which have been continuing since 2022, have increased significantly since 2024 compared to previous years. Attacks on energy infrastructure intensified in 2024 as well, resulting in intermittent countrywide rolling blackouts during the second half of the year.

(UNHCR accessed 25/02/2025, IOM 17/01/2025, OCHA 16/01/2025, DiXi Group 02/01/2025, ACLED accessed 25/02/2025)

The Russia-Ukraine conflict started in 2014 and escalated into a full-scale Russian invasion in 2022, triggering mass displacement within Ukraine and abroad. Over 3.6 million people had been internally displaced by December 2024. By February 2025, 6.9 million refugees were living outside the country.

12.7 million people are estimated to need humanitarian assistance in 2025 because of the impacts of war, mainly on protection, WASH, health, shelter and NFIs, and livelihoods. The humanitarian conditions along the front line are the most severe, but also along the border with Russia across Kharkivska and Sumska oblasts. Humanitarian access to occupied areas in the southeastern oblasts of Ukraine and the highest-risk areas closest to the front line remains highly constrained. Donetska oblast remained at the centre of the most intense Russian ground offensives in early 2025.

Countrywide missile and drone attacks, which have been continuing since 2022, have increased significantly since 2024 compared to previous years. Attacks on energy infrastructure intensified in 2024 as well, resulting in intermittent countrywide rolling blackouts during the second half of the year.

(UNHCR accessed 25/02/2025, IOM 17/01/2025, OCHA 16/01/2025, DiXi Group 02/01/2025, ACLED accessed 25/02/2025)

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28 May 2025

Russian forces launched extensive aerial attacks across Ukraine from 23–26 May 2025, including a record 367 drones and missiles on the night of 24 May. The strikes killed at least 12 civilians, injured 70, and damaged both critical and civilian infrastructure. If Ukrainian air defences struggle to keep up with the frequency and intensity of such aerial attacks in the future, threats to civilian safety across Ukraine are likely to increase. (Air Force Command of UA Armed Forces Facebook accessed 28/05/2025, The Economist 25/05/2025, NV 25/05/2025)

15 April 2025

In April 2025, two Russian ballistic missile attacks on Kryvyi Rih and Sumy cities caused at least 54 civilian deaths and around 192 injuries. For April–May, as US-led peace talks continue, the risk of attacks resulting in mass civilian casualties remains high. Casualties in March 2025 were 50% higher than in February 2025. (Kyiv Independent 13/04/2025, Kyiv Independent 15/04/2025, OHCHR 09/04/2025)

15 April 2025

By 9 April 2025, civilian infrastructure damage in Kryvorizkyi raion (Dnipropetrovska oblast) was 40% higher within the year at 98 counts compared to the entire 2024 (70). Most of the damage is to industrial or business facilities, likely affecting the local economy. This increase comes as Russian forces have increased ground conflict intensity in western parts of Zaporizka oblast. (ACAPS accessed 14/04/2025, ISW 09/04/2025, ACLED accessed 08/04/2025)

02 April 2025

On 25 March 2025, the US reached an agreement with Ukraine and Russia on a temporary pause in attacks on energy infrastructure, although the details remain unclear. Despite the agreement, Russian forces have continued attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure, causing localised electricity disruptions. One such attack on 27 March on Kharkiv temporarily left people without heating, while on 1 April, an attack on Kherson city left 45,000 civilians without electricity. (LB 31/03/2025, ISW 01/04/2025, Slovo i Dilo 02/04/2025)

31 March 2025

During the first two months of 2025, intensified hostilities along the frontline led to the displacement of over 20,000 people to safer areas away from the frontline. Out of the 20,000 IDPs, 9,800 were from Donetska oblast and 4,450 from Khersonska. ([OCHA 27/03/2025(https://reliefweb.int/report/ukraine/ukraine-humanitarian-situation-snapshot-january-february-2025-enuk))

25 March 2025

On 24 March 2025, a Russian missile and drone attack on Sumy city injured 106 people, including 23 children, in Sumska oblast. Overall, 73 buildings were damaged, including three schools, a kindergarten, a hospital, and 61 residential units. State responders provided immediate emergency, rescue, and psychological support, followed by the restoration of water and gas supply. The people affected require legal, cash, and shelter assistance. Since late February, heightened hostilities in Kursk oblast in Russia has led to a rise in attacks on the communities along the border with Sumska oblast, resulting in casualties; damage to private homes, transportation, and critical infrastructure; and disruptions to water and power supplies. On 13 March, the authorities of Sumska oblast announced a mandatory evacuation of 543 civilians, including children, from eight communities in the Yunakivska and Myropilska hromadas of Sumskyi raion, which are located within 0–10km of the Russian border. (Sumy City Council 25/03/2025, Ukrinform 13/03/2025, ACLED accessed 25/03/2025)

24 October 2024

The Russian Federation continues to attack the ports in Odeska oblast after withdrawing from the Black Sea Grain Initiative on 17 July 2023. A spike in attacks occurred between August–September, following a yearly trend of Russia targeting and damaging grain storage facilities after the harvest season, port infrastructure and vehicles, and foreign vessels. Until 11 October 2024, Russia conducted more than 60 ballistic missile and drone attacks during a three-month period. These attacks resulted in civilian casualties, mainly port and ship employees. Complicated logistics through river ports and railways increase costs, an additional strain on Ukraine’s already weakened economy. (ISW 14/10/2024, Radio Svoboda 11/10/2024, APK-Inform 11/10/2024)

current crises
in Ukraine


These crises have been identified through the INFORM Severity Index, a tool for measuring and comparing the severity of humanitarian crises globally.

Read more about the Index

UKR002 - Conflict in Ukraine

Last updated 20/05/2025


Drivers

Conflict/ Violence

Crisis level

Country

Severity level

4.3 Very High

Access constraints

5.0

Analysis products
on Ukraine

Ukraine: humanitarian access for people with disabilities

05 June 2025

Ukraine: humanitarian access for people with disabilities

DOCUMENT / PDF / 526 KB

Over six million people in Ukraine are estimated to have a disability, with three million formally recognised, half of whom are older people. The war has caused new disabilities across all ages, with men making up 60% of those newly recognised. People with disabilities are facing increased hardships, safety risks, and humanitarian access constraints during the war, compounded by preexisting support gaps.

Humanitarian access
Ukraine: quarterly humanitarian access update (Q1 2025)

08 May 2025

Ukraine: quarterly humanitarian access update (Q1 2025)

DOCUMENT / PDF / 9 MB

This report compares access challenges across Ukrainian oblasts and raions to inform humanitarian responders and support decision-making. It is part of the ACAPS regular analysis of access constraints, with the latest report published on 6 February 2025.

Humanitarian access
Ukraine: scenarios in 2025

31 March 2025

Ukraine: scenarios in 2025

DOCUMENT / PDF / 1 MB

This report considers three distinct yet plausible futures for Ukraine through the end of 2025. They focus on how changes in the situation in the country will affect people’s ability to meet their basic needs and affect humanitarian operations in and around Ukraine.

Anticipatory analysisAudioConflict and violence

Attached resources

Ukraine: implications of the US foreign aid cuts

31 March 2025

Ukraine: implications of the US foreign aid cuts

DOCUMENT / PDF / 766 KB

This report provides an overview of the implications of the US foreign aid freeze and cuts on humanitarian, development, and government programmes, with a focus on the impacts on humanitarian response capacity and affected communities. It aims to support donor contingency planning and the advocacy efforts of affected organisations. 

US funding freeze
Ukraine: humanitarian implications of the war in Ukrainian-controlled territory in Khersonska oblast

20 March 2025

Ukraine: humanitarian implications of the war in Ukrainian-controlled territory in Khersonska oblast

DOCUMENT / PDF / 2 MB

The report aims to present the war-related developments and resulting humanitarian impacts in the Ukrainian-controlled territory of Khersonska oblast (namely Beryslavskyi raion and six hromadas of Khersonskyi raion since July 2024.

AudioConflict and violence
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