The objective of ACAPS Quarterly risk analysis is to enable humanitarian decision makers to understand potential future changes that would likely have humanitarian consequences. By exposing the more probable developments and understanding their impact, they can be included in planning and preparedness which should improve response. At ACAPS, risk analysis enables us to:
• ensure our monitoring of countries and crises is forward-looking and our consequent analysis more informed;
• gain advance warning about countries and crises on which we ought to report in more depth;
• respond to specific requests for risk reports.
All of which aim to inform the ACAPS audience, and thus the humanitarian community, of likely future events.
ACAPS Yemen Analysis Hub developed this product to better understand what is the analysis and data collection landscape in Yemen. Namely, we tried to map out who are the main stakeholders in data collection and analysis in Yemen, what are the main kinds of primary datasets, assessment reports, and analysis reports produced on the Yemen crisis, what is their focus (topic, sector, population groups), when are they published and how often, and who is their targeted audience.
We looked into nine indicators to rank and compare the humanitarian access levels worldwide. Affected populations in more than 50 countries are not getting proper humanitarian assistance due to access constraints. Humanitarian access has deteriorated in Colombia, Iraq, Myanmar, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Somalia over the past six months. 13 new countries entered the ranking since the latest ACAPS Humanitarian Access report released in August 2018. Physical constraints and restriction/obstruction of access to services and assistance are the most common challenges.
ACAPS mapped the analysis landscape in Yemen during January and February 2019 during the start-up phase of the Yemen Analysis Hub. We developed a meta-database of over 130 primary datasets, needs assessments and analysis products publicly available (mostly in English) and interviewed over 25 organisations working on data collection and analysis in Yemen in the field or remotely. We compared the analysis landscape to an ‘ideal’ analysis ecosystem and identified lessons and recommendations.
ACAPS published these findings for use by other analysis organisations, researchers or think tanks interested in analysis or analysis capacity building.
Escalation of conflict in Hajjah governorate, particularly in Abs district, risks displacing up to 400,000 people. IDPs are likely to move in two directions: 1) South along the Tihama plain into northern Al Hudaydah, an area heavily impacted by the conflict-related displacement 2) To eastern districts of Hajjah, which have the highest cholera rates in the governorate and poor food security. IDPs are likely to present acute needs, exceeding the capacities of the current response. Abs district, in the direct path of the offensive, hosts up to 210,000 IDPs in over 160 settlements. Most have already been displaced multiple times and have acute shelter, WASH, food, and health needs. Conflict in Abs is likely to disrupt vital WASH and health services. Abs hosts the main water source and the district hospital. With the ongoing rainy season, and cholera cases already on the rise, these services are particularly important and should be protected.
This analysis examines the socio-economic conditions underlying Catastrophic levels of food insecurity in 45 districts of Yemen to identify key drivers which made these communities so vulnerable to food insecurity and the risk of famine.
Twenty million Yemenis are food insecure and 238,000 people in 45 of Yemen’s 333 districts were at risk of experiencing Catastrophe (IPC 5) levels of food insecurity in early 2019 in the absence of humanitarian aid.
This report compares current humanitarian crises based on their level of humanitarian access. Affected populations in more than 40 countries are not getting proper humanitarian assistance due to access constraints. Out of 44 countries included in the report, nearly half of them are currently facing critical humanitarian access constraints, with four countries (Eritrea, Syria, Venezuela, and Yemen) being considered as inaccessible. Moderate humanitarian access constraints are an issue in eight countries, and 15 face low humanitarian access constraints.
This report aims to cover the cross-sectoral needs related to the large-scale conflict driven displacement in Taizz and AlHudaydah since December 2017. It places these developments into a wider context by looking at the drivers of the conflict and the displacement in these two governorates since the escalation of conflict in March 2015.
Food security remains a major humanitarian concern in 2018 in multiple contexts. ACAPS highlights in this report five of the worst affected countries, where large populations are food insecure, and where households and areas are either already in Catastrophe or Famine levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 5), or are at risk of deteriorating into this situation.
312 suspected cases of diphtheria have been reported in Yemen between mid-August and 20 December. The outbreak has resulted in 35 deaths reported. At 11%, the case fatality rate (CFR) is high. 18 out of Yemen’s 22 governorates are affected, with Ibb having the majority of cases. Children aged 5-14 account for around 50% of suspected cases. About 90% of fatalities were reported in children aged less than 15.
Humanitarian Overview 2018 examines major humanitarian crises worldwide to identify likely developments and corresponding needs. The report focuses on countries where the crisis trend indicates a deterioration in 2018 and a corresponding increase in need. It also includes countries where crisis is not predicted to worsen, but is likely to remain severe: Ethiopia, Iraq, Nigeria, Palestine, Sudan, and Syria. Across these countries, food security, displacement, health, and protection are expected
to be the most pressing humanitarian needs in 2018.
On 6 November the Saudi Arabia-led military coalition announced a temporary closure of all Yemen’s airports, seaports and land crossings, effectively halting access to commercial and humanitarian goods to 27 million people. The blockage was announced after Houthis launched a missile from Yemen targeting Riyadh airport, Saudi-Arabia on 4 November. Yemen is heavily reliant on imports for around 80-90% of its food, fuel and medical needs. On 13 November, Hadi government-controlled ports in Aden, Mokha and Mukalla as well as al Wadea land crossing were reopened. Al Hudeidah and Saleef ports, on Houthi controlled area, which process 80% of commercial and humanitarian imports, remain closed. Government-controlled ports cannot function as substitutes for the country’s main ports due to their limited offload and storage capacity. The location of these ports would require the crossing of conflict frontlines to reach the northern areas most heavily affected by food insecurity and cholera. Prior to the current blockade, the Saudi-led coalition had imposed a naval blockade on Yemen's coast, and restricted travel by air, land, and sea, therefore severely restricting the inflow of commercial and humanitarian cargo for the last two and a half years. This has left the country with critically low stocks of necessary goods, reducing capacity to cope under the current conditions.
About 150,000 people are facing Famine in Nigeria and South Sudan. Another 9 million face Emergency food security outcomes (IPC 4) in Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, and Yemen, and could face Famine (IPC 5), if no assistance is provided between May and August, when the lean season takes hold.
In all four countries, conflict is resulting in a high level of displacement and limited humanitarian access. Insecurity is preventing food production and driving prices up. All four countries are experiencing economic problems: falling revenue, currency depreciation, and inflation. Somalia is particularly hard hit by drought. The situation is likely to deteriorate with the lean season. Longstanding vulnerabilities, such as poverty and chronic malnutrition, are also contributing to the crisis. Households have exhausted their coping mechanisms.
A cholera outbreak was reported in Yemen on 27 April. Since then, the number of acute watery diarrhoea (AWD) or suspected cholera cases has increased to reach over 17,200, including 209 deaths, and the infection rate is rising quickly. The outbreak has affected 18 districts: Sana’a City (Amanat al Asemah) is the most heavily affected area, with over 4,000 suspected cases. A state of emergency has been declared in the governorate.
The UN has warned that Yemen is at risk of falling into famine if the international community does not take immediate steps to address the severe food and nutrition crisis. 6.8 million people (25% of the population) are facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) levels of food insecurity, only one phase before the declaration of famine. A further 10.2 million (38% of the population) are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The population in Crisis and Emergency has increased by 20% compared to June 2016.
The Crisis Overview 2016: Humanitarian Trends and Risks for 2017, outlines the countries where needs are greatest, and growing, as we approach the end of 2016.
Based on our weekly Global Emergency Overview (GEO), and four years of data on humanitarian needs across 150 countries, we have identified ten countries where humanitarian needs are likely to be highest in 2017, as well as four that merit attention, as they face a potential spike in needs. We also consider the humanitarian situation in the northern triangle region of Latin America, where the wide-ranging humanitarian impact of pervasive gang violence is chronically underreported.
The Crisis Overview 2015: Humanitarian Trends and Risks for 2016, outlines the countries considered to be in greatest humanitarian need as we approach the end of 2015.
Based on our weekly Global Emergency Overview (GEO), and three years of data on humanitarian needs across 150 countries, we have identified eleven countries where humanitarian needs are likely to be highest in 2016, as well as seven that merit attention, as they face a potential spike in needs. A final section considers the potential impact of the current El Niño event across a number of regions.
Since 23 March, more 150,000 people have been displaced, over 1,000 were killed and 4,350 injured. Access conditions are severely restricted while urgent humanitarian needs are increasing. This adds to the already dire situation of 16 million people in need of assistance over a total population of 26 million. This represents 60% of the population.
Access has deteriorated and led to significant shortages of fuel and electricity. These have affected the functioning of hospitals, the availability of drinking water and food.
19 out of 22 governorates are affected by the conflict, which has escalated since 23 March. Alliances are complex, at times transitory. Several local militias have supported the Government. Armed Sunni tribesmen and Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) have been fighting the Houthi advance, although AQAP continues to oppose the Government as well.
On 26 March, a Saudi Arabia-led coalition launched air attacks. Nonetheless, Houthis continued advancing south. Airstrikes and fighting have continued unabated, particularly in the southern governorates, with no reported progress on a political settlement in the short term.