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Country analysis

Ukraine


The Russia–Ukraine conflict started in 2014 and escalated into a full-scale Russian invasion in 2022, triggering mass displacement within Ukraine and abroad. Over 3.7 million people had been internally displaced by April 2025. By July, 5.6 million refugees were living outside the country.

12.7 million people are estimated to need humanitarian assistance in 2025 because of the impacts of war, mainly on protection, WASH, health, shelter and NFIs, and livelihoods. Attacks on civilian infrastructure, including energy infrastructure, continue to drive humanitarian needs and access constraints. The humanitarian conditions along the front line are the most severe, but also along the border with Russia across Kharkivska and Sumska oblasts. Humanitarian access to occupied areas in the southeastern oblasts of Ukraine and the highest-risk areas closest to the front line remains highly constrained. Donetska oblast remains at the centre of the most intense Russian ground offensives in 2025.

In June, the monthly civilian injury toll (over 1,340 people) reached its highest in the last three years. Apart from missiles, bombs, and shelling, the increased use of long-range and short-range drones by the Russian forces constitute a significant cause of civilian casualties, both in frontline areas and those far from it.

(UNHCR accessed 14/07/2025, IOM 17/04/2025, OCHA 14/01/2025, ACLED accessed 14/07/2025, OHCHR 10/07/2025)

The Russia–Ukraine conflict started in 2014 and escalated into a full-scale Russian invasion in 2022, triggering mass displacement within Ukraine and abroad. Over 3.7 million people had been internally displaced by April 2025. By July, 5.6 million refugees were living outside the country.

12.7 million people are estimated to need humanitarian assistance in 2025 because of the impacts of war, mainly on protection, WASH, health, shelter and NFIs, and livelihoods. Attacks on civilian infrastructure, including energy infrastructure, continue to drive humanitarian needs and access constraints. The humanitarian conditions along the front line are the most severe, but also along the border with Russia across Kharkivska and Sumska oblasts. Humanitarian access to occupied areas in the southeastern oblasts of Ukraine and the highest-risk areas closest to the front line remains highly constrained. Donetska oblast remains at the centre of the most intense Russian ground offensives in 2025.

In June, the monthly civilian injury toll (over 1,340 people) reached its highest in the last three years. Apart from missiles, bombs, and shelling, the increased use of long-range and short-range drones by the Russian forces constitute a significant cause of civilian casualties, both in frontline areas and those far from it.

(UNHCR accessed 14/07/2025, IOM 17/04/2025, OCHA 14/01/2025, ACLED accessed 14/07/2025, OHCHR 10/07/2025)

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19 August 2025

Between 10–14 August 2025, Russian sabotage groups advanced 10–12km past the front lines east of Dobropillia. New mandatory evacuations were announced, with the remaining population facing constrained access to essential services. From 13–14 August, mandatory evacuations were announced from Bilozerska and Dobropilska hromadas in Pokrovskyi raion and Andriivska hromada in Kramatorskyi raion, where a total of 3,000 children remained. The use of first-person-view drones by the Russian forces further complicates evacuation measures, as they present a high risk to civilians, evacuees, and humanitarian responders directly involved in life-saving evacuation. Increased pressure on the nearest transit centre in Pavlohrad city, Dnipropetrovska oblast, is compounded by the overall lack of collective shelter spaces for evacuees. People who remain in frontline areas generally face more severe needs given diminished essential services and humanitarian response, with older people, people with disabilities, and those with reduced mobility at particular risk of having unmet needs. (Vchasno 15/08/2025, REACH 26/03/2025, (ISW 15/08/2025)

13 August 2025

On 2 August 2025, Russian forces attacked the road bridge connecting Korabelniy microdistrict of Kherson with the rest of the city, causing gas, power, and water disruptions. By 10 August, 1,565 civilians (nearly 87% of Korabelniy's total population), including 56 children and 152 individuals with low mobility, had been evacuated. The humanitarian situation in Kherson continues to deteriorate as Russian forces target the roads and vehicles that humanitarians use for evacuation and the delivery of assistance. (Ukrinform 07/08/2025, Ukrainska Pravda 10/08/2025,
Interfax 12/08/2025)

28 July 2025

Russian authorities are threatening Ukrainian residents living in occupied areas of Donetska, Khersonska, Luhanska, and Zaporizka oblasts with forced displacement should they not accept Russian citizenship within 90 days of 10 September 2025. Added threats include property loss, exposure to winter conditions, family separation, and being stranded on the Russian border for an indefinite period of time. Russian authorities already employ coercive passportisation measures, such as restricting access to healthcare, employment, pensions, and education. (HRW 25/03/2025, Zmina 03/07/2023, AJ 23/07/2025)

14 July 2025

In June 2025, the monthly injury toll (over 1,340 people) in Ukraine reached its highest in the last three years. Russian long-range and short-range drone attacks constitute a significant cause of civilian casualties. During a one-week period in early July, Russian forces launched two consecutive countrywide attacks, with a record-breaking number of drones used (over 500 and 700 drones, respectively). The increased scale and frequency of Russian air attacks in 2025 represent a significant protection risk for civilians. (OHCHR 10/07/2025, ISW 09/07/2025, ISW 04/07/2025)

28 May 2025

Russian forces launched extensive aerial attacks across Ukraine from 23–26 May 2025, including a record 367 drones and missiles on the night of 24 May. The strikes killed at least 12 civilians, injured 70, and damaged both critical and civilian infrastructure. If Ukrainian air defences struggle to keep up with the frequency and intensity of such aerial attacks in the future, threats to civilian safety across Ukraine are likely to increase. (Air Force Command of UA Armed Forces Facebook accessed 28/05/2025, The Economist 25/05/2025, NV 25/05/2025)

15 April 2025

By 9 April 2025, civilian infrastructure damage in Kryvorizkyi raion (Dnipropetrovska oblast) was 40% higher within the year at 98 counts compared to the entire 2024 (70). Most of the damage is to industrial or business facilities, likely affecting the local economy. This increase comes as Russian forces have increased ground conflict intensity in western parts of Zaporizka oblast. (ACAPS accessed 14/04/2025, ISW 09/04/2025, ACLED accessed 08/04/2025)

15 April 2025

In April 2025, two Russian ballistic missile attacks on Kryvyi Rih and Sumy cities caused at least 54 civilian deaths and around 192 injuries. For April–May, as US-led peace talks continue, the risk of attacks resulting in mass civilian casualties remains high. Casualties in March 2025 were 50% higher than in February 2025. (Kyiv Independent 13/04/2025, Kyiv Independent 15/04/2025, OHCHR 09/04/2025)

current crises
in Ukraine


These crises have been identified through the INFORM Severity Index, a tool for measuring and comparing the severity of humanitarian crises globally.

Read more about the Index

UKR002 - Conflict in Ukraine

Last updated 22/07/2025


Drivers

Conflict/ Violence

Crisis level

Country

Severity level

4.3 Very High

Access constraints

5.0

Analysis products
on Ukraine

Ukraine: scenarios for the cold season 2025–2026

28 August 2025

Ukraine: scenarios for the cold season 2025–2026

DOCUMENT / PDF / 650 KB

This report details four distinct yet plausible futures for Ukraine during the upcoming October 2025 to March 2026 cold season. The scenarios focus on how the intersection of war dynamics and seasonal conditions may drive distinct cold-season-related needs throughout the country. 

Natural hazards
Ukraine: update on developments in Donetska oblast

10 July 2025

Ukraine: update on developments in Donetska oblast

DOCUMENT / PDF / 335 KB

This report updates ACAPS’ previous analysis on Donetska oblast, reflecting recent developments, including the shift in Russian military operations toward Kostiantynivka. 

Conflict and violence
Ukraine: humanitarian access for people with disabilities

05 June 2025

Ukraine: humanitarian access for people with disabilities

DOCUMENT / PDF / 526 KB

Over six million people in Ukraine are estimated to have a disability, with three million formally recognised, half of whom are older people. The war has caused new disabilities across all ages, with men making up 60% of those newly recognised. 

AudioHumanitarian access
Ukraine: quarterly humanitarian access update (Q1 2025)

08 May 2025

Ukraine: quarterly humanitarian access update (Q1 2025)

DOCUMENT / PDF / 9 MB

This report compares access challenges across Ukrainian oblasts and raions to inform humanitarian responders and support decision-making. It is part of the ACAPS regular analysis of access constraints, with the latest report published on 6 February 2025.

Humanitarian access
Ukraine: scenarios in 2025

31 March 2025

Ukraine: scenarios in 2025

DOCUMENT / PDF / 1 MB

This report considers three distinct yet plausible futures for Ukraine through the end of 2025. They focus on how changes in the situation in the country will affect people’s ability to meet their basic needs and affect humanitarian operations in and around Ukraine.

Anticipatory analysisAudioConflict and violence

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