Violent incidents reported include attacks, kidnapping, and extortion by non-state armed groups (NSAGs), such as Boko Haram and the Islamic State – West Africa Province (ISWAP), as well as militias known locally as bandits.

Since June 2022, heavy rainfall and strong winds have been severely affecting Nigeria. As at 6 October, flooding had affected 33 of its 36 states. As at 20 October, the crisis had displaced more than 1.4 million people and affected over 2.5 million. The floods have triggered a cholera outbreak in Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe.

This report aims to explore the impact of extreme weather and climate events on the humanitarian situation in the Lake Chad Basin. Since the 1970s in West and Central Africa, river floods and agricultural and ecological droughts have been increasing while average rainfall has been decreasing. These phenomena have an impact on availability of resources and land, and consequently on the economic and living conditions of the regions’ populations.

This report highlights the impact of the outbreak considering the current conflict environment and other aggravating factors.

Heavy rains have caused extensive flooding in Chad, Niger and Nigeria since the onset of rainy seasons in June. Chad’s rainy season, expected to last until October, is the heaviest in the past 30 years. Flooding in Niger has affected almost twice the estimated population. Flooding in Nigeria is less widespread than in 2019, but is still significant.

A new humanitarian crisis is emerging in Nigeria’s northwest with the ongoing activities of armed groups referred to locally as ‘bandits’ in six states. Attacks have included shooting and killing, cattle rustling, kidnapping, rape, torching of entire villages, and looting of valuables, and the numbers of fatalities and displaced people have continued to rise.

As of 25 May, Nigeria reported more than 7,800 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 226 related deaths. Most cases (around 60%) have been registered in Lagos and Kano states, followed by the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). 35 of 37 states have reported COVID-19 cases, including conflict-affected states of Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe. Testing capacity in Nigeria is now increasing, but the health system is weak, and many areas of the countries are not easily accessible.

Seasonal rainfall and subsequent high-water levels in Niger and Benue rivers have been causing flooding across Nigeria since June 2019. Floods have worsened after a peak in water levels in late September. According to the latest situation report from 7 October, the floods severely affected 32 of the 36 states and Federal Capital Territory, killing several people, displacing thousands, and causing crop damage to varying degrees across the country.

At least 35,000 people from Nigeria – the majority of whom are women, children, and the elderly – have sought refuge in Cameroon from repeated Boko Haram attacks after security forces left Rann town on 27 January. Most of the population left with them, heading towards nearby Goura town, Far North region, Cameroon where they have settled in makeshift camps and are in need of shelter. 

There is a risk that the tense political climate during the pre-election period will worsen ongoing intercommunal tensions in Nigeria’s Middle Belt between farming and herder communities, who are largely dissatisfied with the federal and state governments’ responses to the farmer-herder violence in 2018. 

These scenarios consider how migration dynamics within and via West and North Africa (including across the Mediterranean Sea) might evolve in the first half of 2019 and the potential humanitarian consequences. The aim is to support strategic planning, create awareness and promote preparedness activities for policymakers and other actors working on migration.

Since our last publication, rains have continued although Niger and Benue river levels have dropped slightly. As of 26 September the flooding of the Niger and Benue rivers is affecting 826,400 people and displacing 176,300 people across 12 states. Assessments are ongoing, and numbers are likely to increase. 

Since our last publication, river levels in most of the 12 affected states remain high due to flooding, which has affected 441,251 people, and displaced 141,369 people between late August and 24 September. Rainfall is expected to continue for the next week. 

Heavy rainfall has caused the Niger and Benue rivers to overflow, displacing thousands across 12 states as of late August. In addition to river flooding, flash floods have occurred in central and northern Nigeria since July. Thousands of houses have been destroyed across all affected states and the affected population has lost household and personal belongings.

On 23 June Fulani herdsmen attacked Berom farmers in Plateau state, triggering displacement in Barkin Ladi local government area (LGA), Jos South LGA, Riyom LGA, Bokkos LGA and Mangu LGA. As of 9 July, most reports state that over 38,000 people are displaced in 31 camps, though some estimates are much higher. 

While over the last 12 months there has been some improvement in terms of education service provision in the three northeast Nigerian states most affected by the ongoing insurgency, there are still significant barriers for many children. The assessment looks at the situation across three main levels of the formal education sector as well as analysing the influence of the security situation, and accessibility to livelihoods and a ‘normal life’.

An estimated 54% of the population in Monguno Local Government Area (LGA) is displaced, and the LGA is among those in Borno with the highest burden of population displacement and needs. Over 122,000 people from other LGAs are displaced in Monguno LGA, and another 32,000 IDPs have returned to the LGA. Many returning IDPs are living in secondary displacement and in dire need of food, shelter, access to livelihood opportunities, and healthcare.

34 suicide attacks have been reported across Nigeria’s Borno state since January, resulting in over 170 deaths. This is the highest number of attacks over this period in Borno since at least 2013, although the lowest number of fatalities.

The return of refugees from Cameroon, Niger, and Chad has put increased pressure on the already existing displacement situation in Banki, Gamboru, Ngala, Damasak, and Pulka. Between January and June 2017, 35,000 Nigerians have returned to Banki, in Bama LGA from Cameroon. More than 4,500 of the returnees have been relocated to Pulka in Gwoza LGA. 

6.9 million people are living in areas with inadequate health services in the northeast, including more than 68% of the 1.8 million IDPs living in host communities across Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe states. The lack of qualified staff and essential medicines, and the destruction of medical facilities all continue to hamper the implementation of interventions.