Nigeria

A new humanitarian crisis is emerging in Nigeria’s northwest with the ongoing activities of armed groups referred to locally as ‘bandits’ in six states, namely Zamfara, Katsina, Sokoto, Kaduna, Niger and Kebbi. Attacks have included shooting and killing, cattle rustling, kidnapping, rape, torching of entire villages, and looting of valuables, and the numbers of fatalities and displaced people have continued to rise.

While more than 1,100 people were killed in 2018 in the six states, over 2,200 were killed in 2019, and more than 1,600 fatalities were recorded between January – June 2020. By September 2019, such attacks had internally displaced over 160,000 people and produced more than 41,000 refugees. Displacement numbers now stand at over 247,000 IDPs and some 60,000 refugees.

ACAPS Humanitarian Access Overview provides a snapshot of the contexts where humanitarian action faces the biggest constraints. Our analysts have scored each context on nine variables in order to rank and compare humanitarian access worldwide. Crisis affected populations in about 60 countries are not getting the humanitarian assistance they need due to access constraints. Eight new countries were included in the ranking since the last ACAPS HumanitarianAccess report released in May 2019. Among the indicators, ‘Physical constraints’ and ‘Restrictions and obstruction to services and assistance’ are the most common challenges. This report presents the score boards for all the countries assessed. Narratives are provided only for countries with high, very high, or extreme constraints.

The Global risk analysis outlines 18 contexts where a significant deterioration is expected to occur within the next six to nine months, leading to a spike in humanitarian needs. This report comes as a result of ACAPS daily monitoring and independent analysis of the globe to support evidence-based decision-making in the humanitarian sector.

Considering the diversity and complexity of the crises, combined with the number of contexts included in the report, it has not been possible to cover each crisis in detail. Instead, we have highlighted the broad evolution of the crises to flag potential deteriorations and inform operational, strategic, and policy decision-makers.

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Since the publication of ACAPS Nigeria Floods Update I Briefing Note on 26 September, rains have continued although Niger and Benue river levels have dropped slightly. As of 26 September the flooding of the Niger and Benue rivers is affecting 826,400 people and displacing 176,300 people across 12 states. Assessments are ongoing, and numbers are likely to increase. Since 26 September, some 200 deaths and 1,035 injuries have been reported. Assessments indicate that around 17,800 homes were damaged or destroyed across all affected states as of late August. Shelter, food, NFIs, and medical assistance continue to be key needs for the affected population. There is no available data from Adamawa and Taraba states.

Heavy rainfall has caused the Niger and Benue rivers to overflow, displacing thousands across 12 states as of late August. The National Emergency Management Agency has declared an emergency in Kogi, Niger, Delta and Anambra states, and is monitoring eight other states in central and southern Nigeria. In addition to river flooding, flash floods have occurred in central and northern Nigeria since July, affecting Katsina, Kano, Jigawa and Sokoto states. Thousands of houses have been destroyed across all affected states and the affected population has lost household and personal belongings. The floods have caused considerable damage to farmland across Nigeria. There is an urgent need for shelter, NFI, food and livelihood assistance.

On 23 June Fulani herdsmen attacked Berom farmers in Plateau state, triggering displacement in Barkin Ladi local government area (LGA), Jos South LGA, Riyom LGA, Bokkos LGA and Mangu LGA. As of 9 July, most reports state that over 38,000 people are displaced in 31 camps, though some estimates are much higher. The camps are overcrowded and needs include urgent shelter, wash, health and food assistance. The violence since June is the latest spike in tensions between Fulani herdsmen and local farmers in the Nigerian Middle Belt region, which have been growing since January 2018.

An estimated 54% of the population in Monguno Local Government Area (LGA) is displaced, and the LGA is among those in Borno with the highest burden of population displacement and needs (along with Mafa, Kukawa. and Dikwa). Over 122,000 people from other LGAs are displaced in Monguno LGA, and another 32,000 IDPs have returned to the LGA. Many returning IDPs are living in secondary displacement and in dire need of food, shelter, access to livelihood opportunities, and healthcare. Insecurity remains a challenge: areas outside Monguno town remain unsafe and sporadic attacks by Boko Haram in surrounding villages and LGAs continue to cause displacement within Monguno and prevent returns beyond the headquarters.

Our methodology uses 9 indicators grouped in 3 categories:
-    Access of humanitarian actors to affected population
-    Access of people in need to humanitarian aid
-    Security and physical constraints
Each category is measured through proxy indicators, such as violence against personnel, denial of needs, or active hostilities.
Data is collected at the country level and may therefore not show disparities between sub-regions.

6.9 million people are living in areas with inadequate health services in the northeast, including more than 68% of the 1.8 million IDPs living in host communities across Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe states. The lack of qualified staff and essential medicines, and the destruction of medical facilities all continue to hamper the implementation of interventions.   

While humanitarian partners have scaled up response, gaps remain and new needs continue to emerge due to population movements and returns. Access remains a significant challenge due to insecurity and will be worsened by the rainy season, which is likely to start in June. The rainy season, overcrowding in camps, and the limited availability of WASH services at camps and other settlements will also increase the risk of disease outbreaks. 

Years of insurgency and counterinsurgency operations have resulted in the displacement of approximately 1.9 million people and created a food and nutrition crisis in Nigeria’s northeast. The worst-affected local government areas of northeast Nigeria are facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food security conditions and Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) levels above emergency threshold.

Areas of Borno with limited access, such as Konduga, Bama, KalaBalge, Mafa, Ngala, Dikwa, and Marte, have between 39,000 and 250,000 people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Famine (IPC Phase 5) food security conditions, according to the Cadre Harmonisé (Cadre Harmonisé 10/03/2017). Agricultural production has fallen, and raids and suicide bombings have destroyed vital infrastructure.

Security measures impacting food security include a ban on the cultivation of tall crops, road closures, controls on fertiliser and fuels, and curfews. The scale of population movement is worsening food security: returning refugees and IDPs are adding to the strain on both camps and host communities.  
 

The longstanding violence between herders and farmers in Nigeria’s Benue, Kaduna, and Plateau states has increased in recent years. In 2016, at least 800 people were killed in southern Kaduna and 1,269 in Benue state, where at least 14 of the 23 LGAs were invaded.

The February 2016 attack on 10 villages in Agatu LGA, for instance, displaced over 7,000 people. With the state government unable to provide or maintain camps and relief, IDPs are unable to meet their basic needs. At least 62,000 people have been displaced in the three states since 2015.

Suicide attacks and attempts in northeast Nigeria between September 2016 and January 2017

The Crisis Overview 2016: Humanitarian Trends and Risks for 2017, outlines the countries where needs are greatest, and growing, as we approach the end of 2016.

Based on our weekly Global Emergency Overview (GEO), and four years of data on humanitarian needs across 150 countries, we have identified ten countries where humanitarian needs are likely to be highest in 2017, as well as four that merit attention, as they face a potential spike in needs. We also consider the humanitarian situation in the northern triangle region of Latin America, where the wide-ranging humanitarian impact of pervasive gang violence is chronically underreported.

Newly accessible areas of Borno and Yobe states and areas with active military operations face severely limited access to food. Levels of malnutrition are critical and populations face a substantially increased risk of mortality. The crude mortality rate (CMR) has surpassed the threshold of 2/10,000/day – used when classifying Famine (IPC Phase 5) – in several areas since June 2016.

Over 14 million people are affected by conflict in northeast Nigeria and more than 10 million people are in need. A growing number of people are in urgent need of food assistance, with some of the worst affected areas possibly in Famine (IPC Phase 5). Alarming rates of acute malnutrition are emerging in Borno and Yobe and deaths as a result of SAM have been reported.

Borno state is most affected: 4.5 million people are estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance, and 4.1 million are food insecure. In Yobe and northern Adamawa, pockets of insecurity persist: 3.2 million people estimated to be in need in Yobe, including 2.3 million food insecure. 900,000 people in Adamawa are food insecure.