The objective of ACAPS Quarterly risk analysis is to enable humanitarian decision makers to understand potential future changes that would likely have humanitarian consequences. By exposing the more probable developments and understanding their impact, they can be included in planning and preparedness which should improve response. 

Since President Al-Bashir was overthrown in early April a transitional military council has been in place. Demonstrations against military rule are ongoing as people call for a transfer of power to civilians. Since the demonstrations started in December 2018, protestors have faced severe human rights violations committed by Sudanese security forces. 

Kenya is currently experiencing a prolonged drought largely as a result of below average precipitation from the seasonal short rains (October-December) and long rains (April-June). Prevailing dry conditions across the Horn of Africa have led to the deterioration of farmland and pastures, loss of livestock, sharply increased food prices, and reduction of the availability of water.

Since 4 May intercommunal clashes have triggered large-scale displacement across three bordering territories in Sud Kivu province. Some 125,000 people from 100 villages fled to safer neighbouring villages and to the surrounding forests. Displaced people are in need of food, shelter and NFIs, WASH and health assistance.

Heavy rainfall in Bamako on 16 May caused flash floods in all six communes of the city, flooding streets, damaging houses and washing away property. At least 16 people have been killed and several others injured. 10 people are known to have died in Niamakoro district, one of the worst affected areas. 

Since 1 May, attacks and clashes between armed groups and Congolese security forces triggered the displacement of more than 12,000 people in Nord Kivu and Ituri provinces in eastern DRC. Although exact numbers and humanitarian needs of newly displaced people are unknown, they add to more than 100,000 people who were displaced in Nord Kivu in April. 

Conflict between the Government of Syria and armed opposition groups has intensified since the beginning of 2019, and escalated since 28 April, in northern Hama governorate and southern Idleb governorate, causing a wave of displacement. 

On 3 May, Cyclone Fani made landfall near Puri District, bringing heavy rain to Odisha and neighbouring states. Extensive damage has been reported to houses and farmland, as well as to transportation, communication, water, end electricity infrastructure, particularly in Odisha. 

The April 2019 Rohingya Influx Overview describes the evolution of Rohingya refugees’ needs in Cox’s Bazar, based on latest Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM) Site Assessment data collected between 14 January and 19 February 2019. The report also addresses the potential impact of any severe weather events, as Bangladesh has entered the April-May cyclone season, to be followed by the June-September monsoon season.

ACAPS' Humanitarian Access Overview provides a snapshot of the most challenging contexts regarding humanitarian access. Affected populations in more than 50 countries are not getting proper humanitarian assistance due to access constraints. Humanitarian access has deteriorated in Colombia, Iraq, Myanmar, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Somalia over the past six months.

Tropical Cyclone Kenneth made landfall on the evening of 25 April 2019, about 100km North of Pemba city, Cabo Delgado province. It is estimated that 740,000 people have been exposed to winds of around 220km/h, and preliminary government estimates indicate that 163,000 people were directly affected.

ACAPS mapped the analysis landscape in Yemen during January and February 2019 during the start-up phase of the Yemen Analysis Hub. We developed a meta-database of over 130 primary datasets, needs assessments, and analysis products publicly available (mostly in English). We also interviewed over 25 organisations working on data collection and analysis in Yemen in the field or remotely. 

In April 2019, conflict between the Libyan National Army aligned to the government in the east and the opposing UN-backed Government of National Accord, based in the northwest of Libya, escalated in and around the capital Tripoli. Clashes have affected 1.5 million people and displaced over 37,600. Key humanitarian needs include safe access to healthcare, and protection and shelter assistance. 

Escalation of conflict in Hajjah governorate, particularly in Abs district, risks displacing up to 400,000 people. IDPs are likely to present acute needs, exceeding the capacities of the current response.

This analysis examines the socio-economic conditions underlying Catastrophic levels of food insecurity in 45 districts of Yemen to identify key drivers which made these communities so vulnerable to food insecurity and the risk of famine.

Over 18,800 people have been displaced in March 2019 in Diffa region as a result of Boko Haram activities and attacks against civilians. In most cases, IDPs have fled without taking their belongings and are in urgent need of shelter, food and NFI support. Assessments conducted in the IDP sites have also shown a need for improved WASH infrastructure. Protection remain a high concerns.

Heavy rainfall since 25 March triggered floods across several provinces in western and northern Afghanistan affecting 17,000 people. As assessments are ongoing and some of the affected areas are difficult to access, the full impact remains unclear. Available information suggests that vast areas of agricultural land have been damaged, and livestock lost, compounding already high levels of food insecurity in the affected provinces. 

This report reflects on lessons learned from needs assessments in the context of the Rohingya crisis. It is based on reviews of assessments in Cox’s Bazar since 2017 and conversations with key assessment stakeholders in the Rohingya response, grounded in global experience and assessment practice.

The objective of ACAPS risk analysis is to enable humanitarian decision makers to understand potential future changes that would likely have humanitarian consequences. By exposing the more probable developments and understanding their impact, they can be included in planning and preparedness which should improve response.

Since 19 March, severe flooding continues to affect eastern Zimbabwe. In total, it is estimated that 270,000 people have been affected in nine districts, mainly in Chimanimani and Chipinge districts, Manicaland province. This marks a significant increase of more than 250,000 people since our last report.