The Yemen Risk Overview is a risk identification report published every six months outlining the main emerging risks in Yemen that might affect the current humanitarian situation (6-month forecast). It aims to inform the humanitarian community of possible changes in context and humanitarian needs in Yemen, in order to facilitate contingency planning, risk management, and response. 

An El Niño phenomenon, although weak, has developed since February affecting several Central American countries, in particular Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador and Nicaragua, known as the Dry Corridor. The most vulnerable households are likely to face Crisis (IPC-3) outcomes and are likely to resort to negative coping strategies, including reduced food consumption and sale of productive assets. Needs are likely to include food assistance, livelihood support and WASH.

The Horn of Africa (including northeast Uganda) is currently experiencing a prolonged drought, largely as a result of below average precipitation from the seasonal short rains (April-July) and long rains (October-December). Prevailing dry conditions across the region have led to the deterioration of farmland and pastures, loss of livestock, sharply increased food prices, and reduction of the availability of water in these areas. 

Heavy rainfall due to the beginning of the 2019 monsoon season triggered severe flooding in northeast India. Flooding affected Assam state since 8 July but worsened considerably since 12 July, affecting 4.3 million people in 30 of 33 districts. 

Heavy rainfall since 11 July has triggered flooding and landslides across south-eastern and central Nepal. Provinces 1, 2 and 3 are worst hit, with province 2 as the most severely affected area. An estimated 75,900 people have been displaced across the country. Shelter, WASH, health and food needs are reported. As of 16 July, 78 people have been killed, 32 people are missing, and 40 others have been injured. Flooding and landslides have blocked and damaged roads and bridges, hampering the humanitarian response.

Heavy rainfall during Myanmar’s monsoon season resulted in the Laymyo River overflowing at the beginning of July. By 14 July, all of the more than 3,400 people living in the IDP camp of Sin Baw Kaing village, Mrauk-U Township, were affected, and had to be relocated. The camp residents, displaced by fighting in Rakhine between the Myanmar Army and the Arakan Army group, were already poor conditions and are in need of humanitarian assistance, particularly shelter and NFIs.

Zambia is currently experiencing a prolonged drought largely as a result of below-average precipitation from the seasonal rains (November-March). The significant rainfall deficit, especially noticeable in Southern and Western provinces, has resulted in decreased agricultural production. Consequently, households are sharply depleting food stocks and are increasingly dependent on market purchases, driving up the prices of staple foods such as maize.

The Yemen Crisis Impact Overview is a bi-monthly product to provide decision makers with a short, accessible overview of key trends and emerging challenges that may affect humanitarian programming in Yemen. The product combines trends in key conflict data with daily media monitoring, secondary data review and ongoing joint analysis with a broad spectrum of Yemen analysts to track and identify key trends and risks with potential civilian impact.

These scenarios describe possible developments in the profile of the displaced population and humanitarian access in Afghanistan over the next 18 months. 

A weak El Niño phenomenon has developed since February affecting Central America, in particular what is known as the Dry Corridor. The drought conditions are impacting agriculture and water sources, leading to higher levels of food insecurity and more pressing WASH needs.

Arrivals of Venezuelan refugees and migrants via Ecuador at Peru’s northern border at Tumbes saw a significant increase at the beginning of June in the lead up to new and stricter entry requirements. Between 8 and 15 June, some 34,000 people arrived at the border, causing long backlogs in processing and adding pressure on humanitarian assistance. 

Since early June intense intercommunal clashes between Hema and Lendu communities led to the displacement of more than 300,000 people across Djugu, Mahagi and Irumu territories of Ituri province in northeast DRC. The majority of people are staying in host communities, mostly in public buildings or in the open. Displaced people are in urgent need of shelter, NFI, and food assistance.

Anti-refugee rhetoric is on the rise in Lebanon and pressure on Syrian refugees to return is increasing. Refugees are being pushed back to Syria, through a combination of restrictive government policies, dire humanitarian conditions, and discrimination.

The objective of ACAPS Quarterly risk analysis is to enable humanitarian decision makers to understand potential future changes that would likely have humanitarian consequences. By exposing the more probable developments and understanding their impact, they can be included in planning and preparedness which should improve response. 

Since President Al-Bashir was overthrown in early April a transitional military council has been in place. Demonstrations against military rule are ongoing as people call for a transfer of power to civilians. Since the demonstrations started in December 2018, protestors have faced severe human rights violations committed by Sudanese security forces. 

Kenya is currently experiencing a prolonged drought largely as a result of below average precipitation from the seasonal short rains (October-December) and long rains (April-June). Prevailing dry conditions across the Horn of Africa have led to the deterioration of farmland and pastures, loss of livestock, sharply increased food prices, and reduction of the availability of water.

Since 4 May intercommunal clashes have triggered large-scale displacement across three bordering territories in Sud Kivu province. Some 125,000 people from 100 villages fled to safer neighbouring villages and to the surrounding forests. Displaced people are in need of food, shelter and NFIs, WASH and health assistance.

Heavy rainfall in Bamako on 16 May caused flash floods in all six communes of the city, flooding streets, damaging houses and washing away property. At least 16 people have been killed and several others injured. 10 people are known to have died in Niamakoro district, one of the worst affected areas. 

Since 1 May, attacks and clashes between armed groups and Congolese security forces triggered the displacement of more than 12,000 people in Nord Kivu and Ituri provinces in eastern DRC. Although exact numbers and humanitarian needs of newly displaced people are unknown, they add to more than 100,000 people who were displaced in Nord Kivu in April. 

Conflict between the Government of Syria and armed opposition groups has intensified since the beginning of 2019, and escalated since 28 April, in northern Hama governorate and southern Idleb governorate, causing a wave of displacement.