Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)3.80 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.4.10 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.4.00 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.3.30 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian constraints.4.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
Venezuela: Situational update and 2019 outlook
The deepening political and socio-economic crisis in Venezuela has led to the collapse of services, deterioration of living conditions, and one of the biggest mass displacements in the history of South America. ?
Inside Venezuela, hyperinflation and increased prices have reduced access to food, medicines, and other basic goods, while the general availability of goods is hampered by import restrictions. In recent years, malnutrition has reached emergency thresholds for children under 5, with 50% exhibiting some degree of malnutrition, and some 280,000 at risk of death due to undernourishment. Pregnant women and people in impoverished parts of the country are also more vulnerable to malnutrition. ?
The population is increasingly poor, with more people falling below the poverty line as well as worsening poverty levels, more vulnerable to epidemic outbreaks, and lacking access to basic services and food. ? The health system is disrupted by shortages of medical supplies, medicine, and personnel departures. Incidence of vector-borne diseases has risen and preventable diseases such as measles have re-emerged. Access to clean water is increasingly difficult due to the collapse of basic services, exacerbating water and sanitation problems. Only 18% of the population residing inside Venezuela receive clean water in a continuous and consistent way. The current crisis has also led to an increase in repression and human rights abuses. Arbitrary detention of over 900 people for political reasons has been reported. ?
INFORM measures Venezuela's risk of humanitarian crisis in 2019 as medium at 4.5/10. ?
No significant recent humanitarian developments. This country is being monitored by our analysis team.
VERY HIGH CONSTRAINTS
Rising and undeniable needs have resulted in the government allowing a few humanitarian organisations to operate comparing to last year. Humanitarian assistance is subjected to political interference and operations can be highly restricted. On 23 February, President Maduro denied access of humanitarian aid from the US through Colombia (while accepting aid from the EU, Russia, China and Cuba) and decided to close the border crossings with Colombia and Brazil, pushing thousands of people to resort to dangerous alternatives like crossing rivers or paying armed groups to use the trochas, unofficial border crossings. Sources indicate that people perceived as critics of the government are prevented from accessing basic goods at government-set prices.
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Venezuela’s economy is expected to continue spiralling, with inflation predicted to reach 10,000,000% by the end of 2019. The deepening political and socio-economic crisis within the country has led to the collapse of services, deterioration of health, food security, and nutrition among the population, and one of the biggest mass displacements in South America’s history. 2.7 million people have fled the country since 2014 and the number is expected to reach 5.3 million by the end of 2019. Tensions between Maduro’s government and the opposition escalated in the beginning of 2019. There is a risk that pressure from international stakeholders calling for change in Venezuela’s leadership and threatening armed intervention could lead to a potential armed confrontation between the government and the US-backed opposition. In addition, growing discontent is likely to lead to large-scale civil unrest, and there is a risk that mass protests could be violently repressed by Venezuelan authorities. The current drought in combination with an El Niño episode confirmed in the beginning of 2019 is also causing concern. ?
With inflation spiralling, the living situation for Venezuelans inside the country is likely to deteriorate significantly, with increased food and medicine shortages, increasing deaths caused by the failure of the health system, as well as paralysis of commerce, education, and increased poverty. Livelihoods and food security are also at risk of being disproportionately impacted by the current drought and El Niño episode. Armed confrontation and large scale civil unrest is likely to significantly worsen the humanitarian situation, create serious protection concerns for civilians, and trigger further displacement. Migration from Venezuela shows no signs of slowing down, and the continuing influx is likely to keep impacting neighbouring countries, straining capacities and leading to the deterioration of basic services. Potential pushback or change in migration policies from host countries would likely lead to increasing difficulties for Venezuelan refugees to access legal status or gain right to employment. ?
This risk was identified in the March Quarterly Risk Report