• Crisis Severity ?
    3.6
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Impact ?
    3.5
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Humanitarian Conditions ?
    3.5
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Complexity ?
    3.8
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Access Constraints ?
    3.0
    No constraints
    Extreme constraints

Key figures

  • 5,759,000 People in Need [?]
  • 1,864,000 IDPs [?]
  • 1,089,000 Refugees in Sudan [?]

Overview

30/05/2019

After four months of protests,  Al-Bashir was ousted in a military coup on 11 April and replaced by a two-year transitional military council (TMC) headed by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. The inability of President Al-Bashir’s government to address Sudan’s severe economic challenges triggered countrywide demonstrations in December. ? Protests will likely continue until a civilian-led government is formed. Protestors face high protection concerns as security forces regularly use violence to disperse them. ? Sudan has faced an economic crisis since the beginning of 2018, resulting in continuously rising prices and shortages of essential items including medicines, fuel, and flour. Nationwide food security and nutrition outcomes have been deteriorating. ?

In Darfur, armed groups are waging protracted insurgencies, despite ceasefire agreements. Protection concerns are increasing as the United Nations-African Union Mission in Dafur (UNAMID) withdraws troops leading up to its closure in June 2020, especially in Jebel Marra, where conflict between government forces and the Sudan Liberation Movement – Abdel Wahid al-Nur (SLM-AW) continues. ?Conflict in South Kordofan and Blue Nile states increased significantly after South Sudan gained independence in 2011. The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) took arms against the inclusion of these states to Sudan without opportunity for democratic elections or consultations. Clashes between the Sudanese government forces and the SPLN-N reduced in 2018, though a high level of insecurity remains.?

Violence, food insecurity, malnutrition and lack of access to basic services have caused large-scale internal displacement of 1.9 million IDPs. ?Additionally, Sudan hosts around 1 million refugees, including 850,000 refugees from South Sudan. ?Sudan is a key transit country for migrants from the Horn of Africa heading to Europe. ?

Latest Developments

19/06/2019

18/06: At least 1,600 South Sudanese refugees have relocated to Bentiu, South Sudan, following the 5-6 June attacks from host communities on South Sudanese in Omdurman. Reportedly, nine refugees have been killed, seven injured and two are missing in the larger Khartoum area. Several cases of SGBV have been reported.  An additional 200 South Sudanese refugees were relocated to Um Sangour camp in White Nile State. Tensions are rising between South Sudanese refugee and host communities in Khartoum, as host communities are accusing South Sudanese refugees of being responsible for the increased criminality in Khartoum since June. They demand that the refugees leave their settlements. Around 290,000 South Sudanese refugees are living in Khartoum State.?

06/06: On 3 June, Sudanese security forces used live ammunition to disperse peaceful protests outside the military headquarters in Khartoum. At least 100 people were killed and hundreds injured. Availability of health services is restricted as a lack of medicine and hospital beds has been reported. A number of medical staff in makeshift clinics and hospitals have been beaten up.  Security forces have reportedly prevented wounded people and ambulances from entering hospitals. RSF officers are also patrolling Khartoum and setting up roadblocks and internet access has been limited. Protesters in Port Sudan, Al-Gadarif and Sinja have also been attacked by security forces.?

Humanitarian Access

31/05/2019

HIGH CONSTRAINTS

Humanitarian access remains restricted, especially in conflict areas. The security situation has become more unpredictable since a new military regime took power in April 2019, posing access risks. Ceasefire agreements in September 2018 opened access to Blue Nile and South Kordofan, but areas controlled by the SPLM-N remain hard to access. In Jebel Marra, Darfur, UNAMID personnel were sporadically denied access to conflict areas due to insecurity. UNAMID’s retreat reduces safe access as fighting between government forces and the SLM-AW continues. Humanitarian travel policies were eased in 2016, but administrative procedures still present obstacles. Mines, explosive remnants, and poor roads hamper assistance. The economic crisis and countrywide lack of fuel and hard currency hamper aid delivery and access to aid.

Download the full Humanitarian Access Overview

Establishment of military regime leads to increased conflict and spread of violence countrywide

Latest update: 21/06/2019

Probability

Highly unlikely Somewhat likely Highly likely

Impact

Very low Moderate Major

After President Al-Bashir was ousted in April 2019 a transitional military government (Transitional Military Council or TMC) was installed. Many TMC members, including the new Vice President, are aligned to the Bashir regime and are guilty of committing human rights violations during the conflict in Darfur in the early 2000s. This is exacerbating anger and frustration among civilians who have been protesting since December. ?Dialogue between the TMC and opposition alliance Force for Freedom and Change (FFC) to ensure a transition to civilian government is not progressing and protests have been dispersed with increasing violence. On 3 June, peaceful sit-ins were violently dispersed countrywide by the Rapid Sudanese Forces (RSF), leaving around 118 people dead and at least 780 injured. ? However, the TMC appears fragile, due to internal differences in opinion. This increases the likelihood of different factions of the security apparatus splitting and vying for power, further destabilising the country.

Following recent escalation in Khartoum, increased violence and inter-communal fighting between civilians, armed groups and security forces has been observed countrywide? A military government is unlikely to pursue peace talks with armed groups in either Darfur or the Two Areas due to historical disagreements. With reduced government influence, armed groups in these regions are likely to take advantage of the volatile security situation and reassert their position through increased used of violence.

IMPACT

Protection concerns, especially for opposition-group members and activists affiliated with protests, are very high. ? With an established autocratic military rule, arbitrary arrests and human rights violations are very likely to increase. Waves of displacement including highly skilled personnel to neighbouring countries, particularly South Sudan, are anticipated.

A minimum of 8 million people already rely on humanitarian assistance. Access to health services are at highest risk, as health facilities face severe shortages of medicines and medical supplies, and hospitals treating wounded protestors have been targeted by security forces. ?

The economic situation is very likely to worsen amid the unpredictable political and security situation. The TMC has limited capacity and anticipated low commitment to deal with rising prices for basic commodities. With the start of the lean season (May to September) food prices are 280-320% higher than the five-year average. There is a high probability that a minimum of 124,000 IDPs in conflict-affected South Kordofan and Jebel Marra will experience Emergency (IPC-4) levels of food insecurity during the peak lean season (August/September); conflict escalation will likely cause this number to rise significantly.?

Humanitarian access overall will deteriorate due to the unpredictable security situation, a government with neither the capacity nor commitment to respond to humanitarian needs, and potentially new limitations to operate in Sudan. People living in conflict-affected areas, as well as increased numbers of IDPs, are expected to face high constraints to access basic services and humanitarian aid.

This risk was identified in the June Quarterly Risk Report

Read this risk

Protests

24/06/2019

Mostly peaceful demonstrations and sit-ins led by the Sudanese Professional’s Association (SPA) will likely continue as protestors and AU Peace and Security Council demand that power is handed over to civilians. However, since the demonstrations started in December 2018, the military, the National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS), and the Rapid Sudan Forces (RSF) continue to respond to the demonstrations with excessive force.? The situation escalated on 3 June when security forces violently raided peaceful sit-ins outside the military headquarters in Khartoum. On 3 June, at least 118 people were killed, more than 780 people injured and at least 70 rape cases reported. ?Between December 2018 and 13 June 2019, at least 208 protestors were killed, and over 2,000 protestors arbitrarily arrested and detained by the National Intelligence Security Service (NISS). Several reportedly died after being tortured in custody. ?

Information Gaps and Needs

30/05/2019
  • Lack of regular gender-sensitive needs assessments in all sectors.
  • Lack of information about the security situation in conflict-affected areas.
  • Access to public services often remains unclear in rural and remote areas. 
  • Information about refugees, their whereabouts and the severity of their needs remain limited.

Key Priorities

31/05/2019

Food security: An estimated 5.76 million people are severely food insecure, with IDPs and host communities the most affected. IDPs in SPLM-N controlled areas South Kordofan and in the Jebel Marra are at high risk of Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food security outcomes at the peak of the lean season (August/September). Food prices are constantly rising, negatively impacting food security. ?

Health: Outbreaks, especially waterborne diseases, are straining limited health services. Severe medicine shortages are reported countrywide. ? Health and hygiene promotion is needed to prevent the spread of diseases in many parts of the country. Some 5.2 million people are in need of healthcare. ?

Protection: Approximately 3.9 million people are in need of protection. Protests increase protection concerns. Civilians across Darfur, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile are at high risk due to continuous high insecurity levels.?