Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)4.40 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.4.40 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.4.50 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.4.10 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian access constraints.3.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
Sudan: Increased violence in Darfur Region
Sudan: Displacement due to conflict in Blue Nile state
Humanitarian Access Overview
CrisisInSight: Global Risk Report
15.8 million people are estimated to need humanitarian assistance across the country in 2023 because of a complex crisis, up from 14.3 million in 2022. Drivers of the crisis include political instability following the military takeover on 25 October 2021, a socioeconomic crisis characterised by high inflation rates and currency depreciation, and food insecurity affecting nearly a quarter of the population. Intercommunal clashes and violence in some areas of the country, especially in Darfur and Kordofan regions, also contribute to the high numbers of internal and cross-border displacements. A severe flooding season between May–September 2022 (typically between June–September) also affected 16 out of 18 states in Sudan.?
In October 2021, the Sudanese military took over the transitional government. Since then, widespread demonstrations denouncing military rule and violent clashes between demonstrators and security forces have been taking place almost every week, especially in Khartoum and Omdurman cities. These demonstrations often result in casualties and damage to basic infrastructure. The general insecurity, road blockages, and communication blackouts that come with the demonstrations affect humanitarian access across the country. The military takeover has led to the suspension of international financial aid to the country, aggravating its deteriorating economy and contributing to high inflation rates.?
There are more than 1.1 million refugees in Sudan. Most of them are from South Sudan and Eritrea and live in camps, out-of-camp settlements, or urban areas across the country. Khartoum and White Nile states host the largest numbers of refugees. They need assistance across all sectors.?
More than 9,800 people were displaced, 14 people killed, and 35 injured in South Darfur following inter-communal clashes that erupted between 22-23 December in Bileil locality. Some villages were burnt down. The majority of displaced people are staying in IDP camps in the same locality and need food, shelter, and non-food items.?
Sudan has an overall score of 3.00 on the Humanitarian Access Index.
Humanitarian access in Sudan has improved during the reporting period in terms of the access of humanitarian organisations across the country to people in need, as well as a slight improvement in the security situation, particularly in relation to the targeting of civilian facilities. Between January–June, there were several reports by humanitarians citing an increase in requests for incentives and fees on the delivery of humanitarian aid, especially in Blue Nile, Central Darfur, Gedaref, North Darfur, South Darfur, South Kordofan, West Kordofan, and White Nile states. Since June, there have been no reports on such a constraint, contributing to improved humanitarian access. There has also been only one report on the confiscation of humanitarian aid compared to several incidents in the previous reporting period. In September, four pickup trucks for Médecins Sans Frontières carrying NFIs, including mosquito nets, blankets, and mats, for flood-affected people were looted in Aj Jazira state. In terms of insecurity, there have been fewer incidents of hospitals and healthcare centres being targeted. Only three reported incidents of violence or threats of violence were recorded against healthcare workers between June–November.
The rainy season and consequent flooding between June–September contributed to increasing pre-existing physical constraints, causing road and infrastructure damage and affecting the movement of people in need and aid workers. Authorities declared emergencies in areas including the Nile River, Kassala, and parts of Darfur, while some areas, such as Al Managil, Aj Jazira state, became completely inaccessible because of severe flooding. Many roads became impassable, and already poor infrastructure in some areas received further damage. The disaster hindered assessments to identify needs and the timely delivery of aid.
For more information you can consult our latest Global Humanitarian Access Overview – December 2022.
Update from the February 2022 Risk Analysis
HIGH RISK LEVEL
A reduction in subsidies causing severe electricity and fuel shortages leads to crop failures, livelihood loss, and worsening food insecurity
The risk has partially materialised. Expected increases in fuel prices have affected agriculture, contributing to a price spike for some food items and worsening food security levels?. There has, however, been no escalation of tensions between the Government and farmers in northern Sudan and no disruption to the electrical supply line from Merowe dam. Electricity did not see further cuts in subsidies, meaning no further increases in electricity prices, unlike for fuel. At the beginning of August, transportation costs increased by 40–50% following an increase in petrol and diesel prices in the country?. High fuel prices have affected agricultural activities, such as land preparation, which usually starts in April. The removal of fuel and electricity subsidies in late 2021 also increased the prices of some food items like sorghum and wheat in 2022. Sorghum prices in July were more than 600% higher than in the same month in 2021?.
Read the February 2022 Risk Analysis here.
Sudan has been facing a socioeconomic crisis caused by the unstable political situation that followed the widespread demonstrations against the politics of former president Omar Hassan al-Bashir in April 2019. The military takeover of the transitional government in October 2021 has further deteriorated the economic situation in Sudan as it resulted in the suspension of international aid, on which Sudan has been depending. Since October 2021, the Sudanese pound has lost about a third of its value, inflation rates have been increasing, there have been shortages of hard currency, and there are no sufficient foreign reserves.?
On 8 March, the government decided for a floating exchange rate instead of fixed, following economic shocks. When the government had devalued the currency previously, in February 2021, the country saw a further increase in prices of food, fuel, electricity, transportation, and medicine. Between January–March 2022, the price of fuel has increased fourfold. As at end of March, fuel prices were 85% higher than October 2021. Wheat prices have also been increasing and affecting the ability of people below the poverty line to buy bread. In January 2018, the Sudanese government cut subsidies on wheat, which caused the price of one loaf of bread to double and drove people to protest. In March 2022, prices of wheat are estimated to have increased by 180% compared to March 2021. Wheat prices continue to rise because of inflation, currency depreciation, and the disruption to the wheat supply chain caused by conflict in Ukraine and sanctions over Russia. Sudan imports more than 85% of its wheat supplies from the two countries (7% from Ukraine and 80% from Russia).?
Health: more than ten million people in Sudan need health assistance. The health system is fragile. Many hospitals face shortages of medicine and medical supplies to treat patients while they continue to receive people injured during demonstrations or intercommunal clashes. Outbreaks of diseases such as malaria, hepatitis E, and dengue fever also increase needs for healthcare assistance.?
Education: school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic have affected children’s education. Despite the reopening of schools in early 2021, recurrent clashes continue to disrupt children’s access to education, especially in conflict-affected areas such as Darfur and Kordofan regions. Schools are also often used as temporary shelters for the displaced. The complex crisis in Sudan has resulted in an insufficient number of teachers, schools, and financial resources for education. This will likely disrupt education for about 12 million students in the 2022/23 school year.?
Nutrition: At least three million children under five suffer from malnutrition (Global Acute Malnutrition). A lack of access to food, clean water, and health assistance contribute to increasing nutrition needs. There is also a need for the treatment of severe and acute malnutrition and preventive interventions. The cost of staple food in September 2022 has increased by 250-300% compared to the same period last year. Increased prices resulted from the impact of the flooding season and continued insecurity, including because of intercommunal clashes, and political and economic instability. Limited access to food risks further aggravating malnutrition levels across Sudan.?
- Lack of regular gender-sensitive needs assessments in all sectors.
- Unclear information on access to public services in rural and remote areas.
- Information about refugees, their exact whereabouts, and the severity of their needs is limited.
- The last population census by the government was conducted in 2008, meaning that information on population numbers heavily relies on estimations or extrapolated data.
- Lack of updated information on education, including attendance rates and WASH infrastructure in schools.
- Comprehensive data on areas across Sudan affected by explosive ordnance is lacking, making mapping of risk areas challenging.
- Lack of information on the access of people with disabilities to basic services, including healthcare.