Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)4.00 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.4.20 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.4.00 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.4.00 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian access constraints.3.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
Sudan: Escalation of violence
Sudan: Economic crisis
After four months of protests, Al-Bashir was ousted in a military coup on 11 April and replaced by a two-year transitional military council (TMC) headed by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. The inability of President Al-Bashir’s government to address Sudan’s severe economic challenges triggered countrywide demonstrations in December. ? Protests will likely continue until a civilian-led government is formed. Protestors face high protection concerns as security forces regularly use violence to disperse them. ? Sudan has faced an economic crisis since the beginning of 2018, resulting in continuously rising prices and shortages of essential items including medicines, fuel, and flour. Nationwide food security and nutrition outcomes have been deteriorating. ?
In Darfur, armed groups are waging protracted insurgencies, despite ceasefire agreements. Protection concerns are increasing as the United Nations-African Union Mission in Darfur (UNAMID) withdraws troops leading up to its closure in June 2020, especially in Jebel Marra, where conflict between government forces and the Sudan Liberation Movement – Abdel Wahid al-Nur (SLM-AW) continues. ?Conflict in South Kordofan and Blue Nile states increased significantly after South Sudan gained independence in 2011. The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) took arms against the inclusion of these states to Sudan without opportunity for democratic elections or consultations. Clashes between the Sudanese government forces and the SPLN-N reduced in 2018, though a high level of insecurity remains.?
Violence, food insecurity, malnutrition and lack of access to basic services have caused large-scale internal displacement of 1.9 million IDPs. ?Additionally, Sudan hosts around 1 million refugees, including 850,000 refugees from South Sudan. ?Sudan is a key transit country for migrants from the Horn of Africa heading to Europe. ?
INFORM Sudan's risk of humanitarian crisis and disaster to be very high, at 7.1/10. Being prone to floods and droughts, hazard and exposure is of particular concern, at 7.3/10. ?
19/09: On 10 September, Sudan's Federal Ministry of Health (FMoH) confirmed four cholera cases in the flood-affected Blue Nile State. Between 28 August and 17 September, the FMoH reported at least 94 cases of acute watery diarrhoea in Blue Nile State, including at least 6 deaths. Sudan experienced a large cholera outbreak in 2016 and 2017 when over 900 people were reportedly killed and over 24,000 affected. ?
09/09: As of 2 September, some 346,300 people have been affected by heavy rains and flooding across 16 states in Sudan according to the government’s Humanitarian Aid Commission. Worst affected is White Nile state with at least 147,240 people who are impacted by flooding. Flood water destroyed or damaged nearly 70,000 homes and impacted WASH and health facilities raising concerns for the spread of diseases. Pooled water is likely to increase mosquito breeding grounds and exacerbate health risks. Additionally, thousands of livestock have been killed which is likely to affect livelihoods and food security, especially of poor households. Particularly vulnerable are the South Sudanese refugees and Sudanese IDP’s whose living conditions were already dire before the onset of the crisis. Most urgent needs reported are shelter, WASH, health and food assistance. Sudan’s rainy season runs from June until the end of September. ?
Humanitarian access remains restricted, especially in conflict areas. The security situation has become more unpredictable since a new military regime took power in April 2019, posing access risks. Ceasefire agreements in September 2018 opened access to Blue Nile and South Kordofan, but areas controlled by the SPLM-N remain hard to access. In Jebel Marra, Darfur, UNAMID personnel were sporadically denied access to conflict areas due to insecurity. UNAMID’s retreat reduces safe access as fighting between government forces and the SLM-AW continues. Humanitarian travel policies were eased in 2016, but administrative procedures still present obstacles. Mines, explosive remnants, and poor roads hamper assistance. The economic crisis and countrywide lack of fuel and hard currency hamper aid delivery and access to aid.
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Peaceful demonstrations and sit-ins led by the Sudanese Professional’s Association (SPA) are ongoing as people call for a transfer of power to civilians. Since the demonstrations started in December 2018, the National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS), and the Rapid Sudan Forces (RSF) continue to respond to the demonstrations with excessive force. ? The situation escalated on 3 June when security forces violently raided peaceful sit-ins outside the military headquarters in Khartoum. On 3 June, at least 118 people were killed, more than 780 people injured and at least 70 rape cases reported. ?On 30 June, several thousands of Sudanese joined renewed countrywide demonstrations as talks between the TMC and opposition groups remain unsuccessful. At least 11 people were killed and more than 180 Sudanese were injured.? December 2018 and June 2019, at least 219 protestors were killed, and over 2,000 protestors arbitrarily arrested and detained by the NISS. Several reportedly died after being tortured in custody. ?Following the escalation of violence in June access to internet is very limited. ?
Information Gaps and Needs
- Lack of regular gender-sensitive needs assessments in all sectors.
- Lack of information about the security situation in conflict-affected areas.
- Access to public services often remains unclear in rural and remote areas.
- Information about refugees, their whereabouts and the severity of their needs remain limited.
Food security: An estimated 5.76 million people are severely food insecure, with IDPs and host communities the most affected. IDPs in SPLM-N controlled areas South Kordofan and in the Jebel Marra are at high risk of Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food security outcomes at the peak of the lean season (August/September). Food prices are constantly rising, negatively impacting food security. ?
Health: Outbreaks, especially waterborne diseases, are straining limited health services. Severe medicine shortages are reported countrywide. ? Health and hygiene promotion is needed to prevent the spread of diseases in many parts of the country. Some 5.2 million people are in need of healthcare. ?
Protection: Approximately 3.9 million people are in need of protection. Protests increase protection concerns. Civilians across Darfur, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile are at high risk due to continuous high insecurity levels.?