• Crisis Severity ?
    3.7
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Impact ?
    3.9
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Humanitarian Conditions ?
    3.5
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Complexity ?
    3.9
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Access Constraints ?
    3.0
    No constraints
    Extreme constraints

Key figures

  • 8,000,000 People in Need [?]
  • 1,864,000 IDPs [?]
  • 1,089,000 Refugees in Sudan [?]

Overview

25/06/2019

After four months of protests,  Al-Bashir was ousted in a military coup on 11 April and replaced by a two-year transitional military council (TMC) headed by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. The inability of President Al-Bashir’s government to address Sudan’s severe economic challenges triggered countrywide demonstrations in December. ? Protests will likely continue until a civilian-led government is formed. Protestors face high protection concerns as security forces regularly use violence to disperse them. ? Sudan has faced an economic crisis since the beginning of 2018, resulting in continuously rising prices and shortages of essential items including medicines, fuel, and flour. Nationwide food security and nutrition outcomes have been deteriorating. ?

In Darfur, armed groups are waging protracted insurgencies, despite ceasefire agreements. Protection concerns are increasing as the United Nations-African Union Mission in Darfur (UNAMID) withdraws troops leading up to its closure in June 2020, especially in Jebel Marra, where conflict between government forces and the Sudan Liberation Movement – Abdel Wahid al-Nur (SLM-AW) continues. ?Conflict in South Kordofan and Blue Nile states increased significantly after South Sudan gained independence in 2011. The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) took arms against the inclusion of these states to Sudan without opportunity for democratic elections or consultations. Clashes between the Sudanese government forces and the SPLN-N reduced in 2018, though a high level of insecurity remains.?

Violence, food insecurity, malnutrition and lack of access to basic services have caused large-scale internal displacement of 1.9 million IDPs. ?Additionally, Sudan hosts around 1 million refugees, including 850,000 refugees from South Sudan?Sudan is a key transit country for migrants from the Horn of Africa heading to Europe. ?

INFORM Sudan's risk of humanitarian crisis and disaster to be very high, at 7.1/10. Being prone to floods and droughts, hazard and exposure is of particular concern, at 7.3/10. ?

Latest Developments

02/07/2019

18/07: 4,000 households (around 24,000 people) in El Kuma, North Darfur, were affected by floods following heavy rains on 10 July. 500 houses and 1,000 latrines were completely damaged. WASH needs are very high as access to safe drinking water is challenging due to non-functioning water points. One health center and WASH facilities in three schools were damaged, too. ?

28/06: 4,500 South Sudanese refugees fled to open areas in Khartoum, camps in White Nile State or other unknown locations, following the 5-6 June attacks from host communities on South Sudanese in Omdurman. Reportedly, nine refugees have been killed, seven injured and two are missing in the larger Khartoum area. Several cases of SGBV have been reported. A minimum of 200 South Sudanese refugees were relocated to Um Sangour camp in White Nile State. Tensions are rising between South Sudanese refugee and host communities in Sudan, as host communities are accusing South Sudanese refugees of being responsible for the increased criminality in Khartoum since June. In White Nile State a water system was destroyed, leaving some camps without safe drinking water. Host Comunity members demand that the refugees leave their settlements. Around 850,000 South Sudanese refugees are living in Sudan.?

27/06: A series events of heavy rainfall in early June caused floods in Tawilla, North Darfur and Leiba, East Jebel Marra, South Darfur. At least 6,525 IDPs and returnees are in need of humanitarian assistance as floods destroyed 485 homes and damaged at least 760 houses in Tawilla as well as damaged 325 houses in Leiba. Priority needs are shelter, NFIs, food and health as well as ensuring a functional sewage system. Impact on road infrastructure is unknown. Access to Jebel Marra is very restricted due to ongoing conflict between armed groups. The political situation in Sudan after the violent crackdown on protesters on 3 June leaves the security situation fragile which may further complicate the response. ?

27/06: An earthquake on 24 June killed and injured dozens of people in Babanousa village, Sennar governorate. More than 100 houses were damaged and/or destroyed, affecting around 500 people.  The village's drinking water station has been destroyed. Food, shelter and WASH needs, including access to safe drinking water, are priority needs.?

Humanitarian Access

31/05/2019

HIGH CONSTRAINTS

Humanitarian access remains restricted, especially in conflict areas. The security situation has become more unpredictable since a new military regime took power in April 2019, posing access risks. Ceasefire agreements in September 2018 opened access to Blue Nile and South Kordofan, but areas controlled by the SPLM-N remain hard to access. In Jebel Marra, Darfur, UNAMID personnel were sporadically denied access to conflict areas due to insecurity. UNAMID’s retreat reduces safe access as fighting between government forces and the SLM-AW continues. Humanitarian travel policies were eased in 2016, but administrative procedures still present obstacles. Mines, explosive remnants, and poor roads hamper assistance. The economic crisis and countrywide lack of fuel and hard currency hamper aid delivery and access to aid.

Download the full Humanitarian Access Overview

Establishment of military regime leads to increased conflict and spread of violence countrywide

Latest update: 21/06/2019

Probability

Highly unlikely Somewhat likely Highly likely

Impact

Very low Moderate Major

After President Al-Bashir was ousted in April 2019 a transitional military government (Transitional Military Council or TMC) was installed. Many TMC members, including the new Vice President, are aligned to the Bashir regime and are guilty of committing human rights violations during the conflict in Darfur in the early 2000s. This is exacerbating anger and frustration among civilians who have been protesting since December. ?Dialogue between the TMC and opposition alliance Force for Freedom and Change (FFC) to ensure a transition to civilian government is not progressing and protests have been dispersed with increasing violence. On 3 June, peaceful sit-ins were violently dispersed countrywide by the Rapid Sudanese Forces (RSF), leaving around 118 people dead and at least 780 injured. ? However, the TMC appears fragile, due to internal differences in opinion. This increases the likelihood of different factions of the security apparatus splitting and vying for power, further destabilising the country.

Following recent escalation in Khartoum, increased violence and inter-communal fighting between civilians, armed groups and security forces has been observed countrywide? A military government is unlikely to pursue peace talks with armed groups in either Darfur or the Two Areas due to historical disagreements. With reduced government influence, armed groups in these regions are likely to take advantage of the volatile security situation and reassert their position through increased used of violence.

IMPACT

Protection concerns, especially for opposition-group members and activists affiliated with protests, are very high. ? With an established autocratic military rule, arbitrary arrests and human rights violations are very likely to increase. Waves of displacement including highly skilled personnel to neighbouring countries, particularly South Sudan, are anticipated.

A minimum of 8 million people already rely on humanitarian assistance. Access to health services are at highest risk, as health facilities face severe shortages of medicines and medical supplies, and hospitals treating wounded protestors have been targeted by security forces. ?

The economic situation is very likely to worsen amid the unpredictable political and security situation. The TMC has limited capacity and anticipated low commitment to deal with rising prices for basic commodities. With the start of the lean season (May to September) food prices are 280-320% higher than the five-year average. There is a high probability that a minimum of 124,000 IDPs in conflict-affected South Kordofan and Jebel Marra will experience Emergency (IPC-4) levels of food insecurity during the peak lean season (August/September); conflict escalation will likely cause this number to rise significantly.?

Humanitarian access overall will deteriorate due to the unpredictable security situation, a government with neither the capacity nor commitment to respond to humanitarian needs, and potentially new limitations to operate in Sudan. People living in conflict-affected areas, as well as increased numbers of IDPs, are expected to face high constraints to access basic services and humanitarian aid.

This risk was identified in the June Quarterly Risk Report

Read this risk

Protests

02/07/2019

Peaceful demonstrations and sit-ins led by the Sudanese Professional’s Association (SPA) are ongoing as people call for a transfer of power to civilians. Since the demonstrations started in December 2018, the National Intelligence and Security Service (NISS), and the Rapid Sudan Forces (RSF) continue to respond to the demonstrations with excessive force. ? The situation escalated on 3 June when security forces violently raided peaceful sit-ins outside the military headquarters in Khartoum. On 3 June, at least 118 people were killed, more than 780 people injured and at least 70 rape cases reported. ?On 30 June, several thousands of Sudanese joined renewed countrywide demonstrations as talks between the TMC and opposition groups remain unsuccessful. At least 11 people were killed and more than 180 Sudanese were injured.? December 2018 and June 2019, at least 219 protestors were killed, and over 2,000 protestors arbitrarily arrested and detained by the NISS. Several reportedly died after being tortured in custody. ?Following the escalation of violence in June access to internet is very limited. ?

 

Information Gaps and Needs

02/07/2019
  • Lack of regular gender-sensitive needs assessments in all sectors.
  • Lack of information about the security situation in conflict-affected areas.
  • Access to public services often remains unclear in rural and remote areas. 
  • Information about refugees, their whereabouts and the severity of their needs remain limited.

Key Priorities

02/07/2019

Food security: An estimated 5.76 million people are severely food insecure, with IDPs and host communities the most affected. IDPs in SPLM-N controlled areas South Kordofan and in the Jebel Marra are at high risk of Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food security outcomes at the peak of the lean season (August/September). Food prices are constantly rising, negatively impacting food security. ?

Health: Outbreaks, especially waterborne diseases, are straining limited health services. Severe medicine shortages are reported countrywide. ? Health and hygiene promotion is needed to prevent the spread of diseases in many parts of the country. Some 5.2 million people are in need of healthcare. ?

Protection: Approximately 3.9 million people are in need of protection. Protests increase protection concerns. Civilians across Darfur, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile are at high risk due to continuous high insecurity levels.?