The April 2019 Rohingya Influx Overview (RIO) describes the evolution of Rohingya refugees’ needs in Cox’s Bazar, based on latest Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM) Site Assessment data collected between 14 January and 19 February 2019.
The report also addresses the potential impact of any severe weather events, as Bangladesh has entered the April-May cyclone season, to be followed by the June-September monsoon season.
This report reflects on lessons that can be learned from needs assessments in the context of the Rohingya crisis. It is based on reviews of assessments in Cox’s Bazar since 2017 and conversations with key assessment stakeholders in the Rohingya response, grounded in global experience and assessment practice. It suggests a series of key recommendations and considerations covering all stages of the assessment process, with the goal to improve future assessments and data quality. It covers assessments targeting Rohingya refugees as well as the Bangladeshi host community.
The report begins by emphasizing the need for coordination and analysis and discusses implications and limitations of different data collection methods. In the next section, it highlights linguistic challenges, showing how they can impact data quality and assessment results. This is followed by a discussion of age, gender, and diversity considerations in the context of needs assessments and operational constraints. The next section discusses enumerator selection and training, followed by suggestions on communicating assessment results back to affected communities. After a series of key literature recommendations, the report closes by showcasing, in a Spotlight, the differences between two major datasets.
This report provides an in-depth analysis of the WASH conditions and needs in the Rohingya camps in Cox’s Bazar. It presents the WASH Severity Index, which classifies the Rohingya population at camp-level into five groups by level of need: very high severity, high severity, moderate severity, low severity, and very low severity.
These severity scores were calculated for water, sanitation, and hygiene as well as an overall WASH index. Need is calculated using a combination of indicators from the REACH-UNICEF WASH Household Assessment – Monsoon Follow-up. The Index thus helps to understand where the severity of WASH needs is the highest. The severity index is calculated on the current level of response. There is no “no severity” category as all Rohingya refugees are dependent on aid.
In this report, findings from the REACH-UNICEF survey are contrasted with data from the Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM) survey. A secondary data analysis, interviews with WASH experts, and field visits complement the results.
This report covers changes and key issues recorded in the Rohingya refugee camps in Cox’s Bazar district of Bangladesh between July, September, and November. It includes a review of secondary data, as well as the results of a multi-sector prioritisation tool developed by the Analysis Hub: the Basic Needs Gap Index. This index is based on Needs and Population Monitoring (NPM) Round 13 data and covers gaps in shelter and NFIs, food, health, sanitation and water supply, and is meant to illustrate the severity of need across camps and blocks in the Rohingya settlements.
The Global risk analysis outlines 18 contexts where a significant deterioration is expected to occur within the next six to nine months, leading to a spike in humanitarian needs. This report comes as a result of ACAPS daily monitoring and independent analysis of the globe to support evidence-based decision-making in the humanitarian sector.
Considering the diversity and complexity of the crises, combined with the number of contexts included in the report, it has not been possible to cover each crisis in detail. Instead, we have highlighted the broad evolution of the crises to flag potential deteriorations and inform operational, strategic, and policy decision-makers.
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This traffic lights diagram is based on the result of multisectoral priortrisation tool developed by the Analysis Hub. The tool uses NPM site assessments Round 13 data from four sectors to priortise needs geographically, at majhee block level. The 45 indicators used are selected from the sectors to build up a composite index, and combined to make up Basic Needs Gap Index at majhee block level. Each indicators are evaluated for their inclusion in the priortrisation tool and selected according to the amount of variation it revealed. The Betti-Verma method is used to calculate the weight of each indicator and multiple deprivation tool is used to calculate the index in STATA. Additional explanation can be found in the Rohingya Influx Overview. Camps and sites are too large and diverse to be effective planning devices. The analysis for the Basic Need Gap Index was done at majhee block level because the majority of differences and variations in needs are between majhee blocks; and camp level analysis can hide the pockets of high need area.
The traffic lights diagram above is based on the result of multisectoral priortrisation tool developed by Analysis Hub. The tool uses NPM site assessments Round 12 data from five sectors to priortise needs geographically, at majhee block level. The 32 indicators are selected from the sectors to build up composite index; combine to present basic need gap index at majhee block level. Each indicators are evaluated for their inclusion in the priortrisation tool and selected according to the amount of variation that each indicator revealed. The Bette Verma method is used to calculate the weight of each indicator and multiple deprivation tool is used to calculate the index in STATA. Additional explanation can be found in Rohingya Influx Overview. Camps and sites are tool large and diverse to be effective planning devices. The analysis for basic need gap was done at majhee block level because the majority of differences and variations in needs are between majhee blocks; and camp level analysis can hide the pockets of high need area. To illustrate this, each gap in above diagram is presented at majhee block level.
The traffic lights chart depicts an initial multi-sector overview of needs from Round 11 of the NPM Site Assessment – these results are preliminary and require further analysis. Of the 37 indicators have been used in the construction of the Basic Needs Gap, have already been analysed and included in the previously-documented Prioritisation Index and its component sector sub-indices. This product displays results at both camp and mahji block-level, as pockets of high need and other variations cannot be understood through camp-level analysis alone. The size of each point reflects the number of people in need. Sites and blocks are scaled separately. The percentage of persons with needs in that sector are listed next to each site.
The traffic lights diagram above is based on the results of a multi-sector prioritisation tool developed by the Analysis Hub. The took uses NPM data from five sectors to prioritise needs geographically, at the block level. The 30 indicators which form the prioritisation tool have been weighted and combined into the Basic Needs Gap – it and its component sector gaps, are included in the excel workbook accompanying this one-pager. Indicators were evaluated for their inclusion in the prioritisation tool and selected according to the amount of variation that each indicator revealed. Additional explanation may be found in the Rohingya Influx Overview; and the methodology behind the tool can be found in the technical brief Building a Prioritization Index with NPM Round 9.
This chart contains headline indicators broken down by Sector. This has been done to present a initial overview of the results whilst a more thorough report on Round 9 is developed. The NPM Site Assessment is a regular data collection and analysis exercise.
For Round 9, more than 1,800 respondents (mostly mahjis) were interviewed. The total Rohingya population enumerated is 898,312. This summary includes 38 camps and excludes 15,844 people across 77 blocks out of 1,807, or 2% of the population, whose responses have been anonymised as they are predominantly small settlements in host communities and may be easily identified.
This report covers changes and key issues recorded in the Rohingya refugee camps in Cox’s Bazar district of Bangladesh between July and September/October. It includes a review of secondary data, as well as the results of a multi-sector prioritisation tool developed by the Analysis Hub: the Basic Needs Gap Index. This index is based on NPM Round 12 data and covers gaps in shelter and NFIs, food, health, sanitation and water supply, and is meant to illustrate the severity of need across camps and blocks in the Rohingya settlements.
This report covers changes recorded in the Rohingya refugee camps in Cox’s Bazar district of Bangladesh during the monsoon season. It includes a review of secondary data, as well as the results of a multi-sector prioritization tool developed by the Analysis Hub, called the Basic Needs Gap Index. This index is based on NPM Round 11 data and covers gaps in shelter and NFIs, food, health, sanitation and water supply, and is meant to illustrate the severity of need across camps and blocks in the Rohingya settlements.
Heavy rainfall recorded in northeastern Bangladesh since 12 June exacerbated by a sudden increase of river water levels due to upstream flooding in India resulted in severe flooding in Moulvibazar and Sylhet districts. Flooding affected the majority of upazilas in both districts, leading to severe infrastructure damage and acute needs. Over 2,000,000 people live in the most affected upazilas. At least 250,000 of them have been affected, and over 12,000 reside in temporary shelters in Moulvibazar. An estimated 570,000 people have also been affected in Sylhet.
The aim of this report is to map out governance structures and community participation initiatives adopted in different types of settlements. It touches upon the role of the Government of Bangladesh, the majhi system, the Camp Committees, the Para Development Committees in collective sites with host communities, and other community participation initiatives.
The following lessons have been drawn from the impact of cyclones in Bangladesh and specifically Cox’s Bazar district. Other literature reviewed includes lessons from cyclones in Myanmar. These are considered relevant for the current Rohingya crisis.
Organisations working on the Rohingya response are preparing for the cyclone season. This brief provides background on cyclones in Bangladesh and an overview of their impact, to put the emergency preparedness planning into a wider perspective. The 2018 cyclone seasons will be different from those in the past. The influx of over 650,000 refugees residing in temporary shelters and who are not included in national preparedness and early warning mechanisms creates a significantly different level of vulnerability.
This note summarizes a longer document on the potential impact of pre-monsoon and monsoon rains in the Rohingya camps of Cox’s Bazar. It has drawn on the past impact of rains in the Rohingya settlements and in Cox’s Bazar and Bangladesh more generally. The Rohingya camps at this scale have never existed in this season before so there is no direct past experience of how they have withstood a monsoon in Bangladesh. The number of people in the settlements and the nature of the temporary living conditions and facilities all indicate that the impact of a normal rainy season will make the provision of on-going response to the influx challenging. A severe monsoon will have a serious impact on needs.
Disclaimer: This note is based on a subjective assessment of the potential impact of the monsoon on camps and is considered a worst-case scenario.
This brief outlines the potential impact of rains, floods and landslides in the camps of Cox’s Bazar. To do so, it draws on past impact of rains in these camps, as well as in Cox’s Bazar and in Bangladesh more generally. It also draws on similar camp settings and natural disasters in other countries. Wherever possible, it is grounded in informal discussions with experts in their sector, meeting notes and field observations. The camps at this scale have never existed in this season before, so there is no direct past experience of how they have withstood a monsoon.
Disclaimer: This note is based on a subjective assessment of the potential impact of the monsoon on camps, and is considered a worst-case scenario.
The aim of this brief is to investigate the situation and needs of host communities in Cox’s Bazar. This brief first evaluates host communities’ needs related to all sectors, and it also looks at potential sources of tension among host communities and the Rohingya population.
In the 20th century, there have been multiple waves of movement of Rohingya population from Rakhine State in Myanmar to Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh and back. The 2017 exodus is by far the largest. Following each previous displacement to Bangladesh, some of the Rohingya population have returned to Myanmar, driven by both initiatives from the Government of Bangladesh to repatriate the Rohingya population, and the Rohingya population’s own initiative in returning home. Difficult humanitarian conditions, lack of legal status and inability to work in Bangladesh have contributed as pull factors to return home.
A review of documentation on the situation for those residing inside and outside camps in Bangladesh reveals patterns of persistent needs and constraints since 1978. These constraints include congestion, restrictions on freedom of movement and continued statelessness and denial of rights – which, in turn, reduce the possibility of generating income, and drive high rates of malnutrition, low access or quality of WASH facilities, low availability of educational facilities, significant protection concerns, the risk of epidemics, and high prevalence of negative coping mechanisms.
This report is a review of available literature on the Rohingya influxes into Bangladesh since 1978. The review seeks to provide a historical context to the current influx, in terms of population movement, status and sector responses. This report aims to help inform current and future humanitarian response.
As of 6 December, 110 clinically diagnosed cases of diphtheria, including six deaths have been reported, with most cases in the Balukhali makeshift settlement (BMS), located in the larger Kutupalong–Balukhali expansion site. Other cases have been detected in Jamtoli and Thangkhali settlements. Low vaccination coverage amongst the camp population increases their vulnerability to the disease, which is particularly deadly for children. Congestion in sites, unevenly distributed health facilities and poor WASH infrastructure facilitate the spread of the disease, particularly during winter. An emergency vaccination campaign targeting 250,000 children is to begin on December 10. Difficult terrain and lack of access to some areas in expansion sites are likely to hamper health services provision. Awareness raising will be important to ensure as many children as possible access immunisations.
Humanitarian Overview 2018 examines major humanitarian crises worldwide to identify likely developments and corresponding needs. The report focuses on countries where the crisis trend indicates a deterioration in 2018 and a corresponding increase in need. It also includes countries where crisis is not predicted to worsen, but is likely to remain severe: Ethiopia, Iraq, Nigeria, Palestine, Sudan, and Syria. Across these countries, food security, displacement, health, and protection are expected
to be the most pressing humanitarian needs in 2018.
As of 21 November, an estimated 622,000 Rohingya refugees fled Myanmar to Bangladesh. The influx began on 25 August, after the Myanmar Army launched security operations in northern Rakhine state. In September, an average of approximately 14,500 people arrived daily. This dropped to an approximate average of 3,100 arrivals per day in October. The estimated number of people in need was 1.2 million in the latest Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) of October 2017. This number was comprised of the pre-existing caseload of Rohingya in Bangladesh (government estimates of 300,000), the new influx since 25 August (at 509,000 on 3 October), people in host communities (300,000), and a contingency for a further 91,000 people.
As of 5 November, some 609,000 people have fled northern Rakhine state in Myanmar to Cox’s Bazar, Bangladesh following an eruption of violence on 25 August. A large number have likely also been internally displaced within Rakhine state, but data is not available on this. The Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), an insurgent group, launched multiple attacks on government posts in Rakhine state, to which the Myanmar military responded with heavy force. However, it has been reported that military clearance operations targeting Rohingya may have begun prior to the ARSA attack. There are high levels of need among Rohingya both in Cox’s Bazar and also likely among IDPs in northern Rakhine. Rohingya in central Rakhine have also been affected to a lesser extent.
As of 22 September, an estimated 429,000 Rohingya people have arrived in Bangladesh since 25 August (IOM 22/09/2017). Rohingya started fleeing northern Rakhine, Myanmar as the Myanmar Army is carrying out crackdown operations in the area. Operations, which have killed at least 400 people, started after the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) carried out attacks against police- and border posts (Thomson Reuters Foundation 03/09/2017). The Myanmar Army has been accused of extrajudicial killings, torture, rape, burning of shelters, and arbitrary arrests of the minority Rohingya population. Rohingya people are entering Bangladesh at six points across the Naikonchari border: Gundum, Tombru, Jolpaitoli, Reju Aamtali, Baishpari, and Kolabagan (The Daily Star 29/08/2017). An unknown number could still be stranded at the border.
Some 270,000 people have fled Rakhine state in Myanmar to Bangladesh following an eruption of violence on 25 August. The Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA), an Islamic insurgent group, launched multiple attacks on government posts in Rakhine state, and Myanmar security forces then launched counter attacks causing mass displacement. An estimated 400,000 Rohingya are still trapped in conflict zones of Rakhine state, where needs are unknown and access virtually impossible. In Bangladesh, the sudden influx, on top of an existing crisis, means needs are high. In addition to the 270,000 who have fled so far, a further 40,000 are stranded in an accessible area near the border after being stopped by border guards.
Landslides that began on 13 June in Chittagong division have resulted in 160 deaths and 187 injured. 6,000 structures have been destroyed, and other key infrastructure damaged. The area affected is in a region referred to as the Chittagong Hill Tracts (CHT). Reports indicate that approximately 80,000 people across five districts – Bandarban, Chittagong, Cox’s Bazar, Khagrachari and, Rangamati – are affected.
Cyclone Mora made landfall near Kutubdia upazila, Cox’s Bazar district, southeast Bangladesh on 30 May. As of 31 May, the Bangladesh Meteorological Department has lowered the danger signal related to the cyclone from 10 to 3, as the storm weakened. Initial assessments estimate that over 280,000 people have been affected. The impact Initial assessments estimate that over 280,000 people have been affected. The impact Chittagong. Vulnerable settlements where refugees and undocumented migrants and refugees, many of whom are Rohingya, reside in Cox’s Bazar have been hit particularly hard. Over 475,000 were evacuated to cyclone shelters before the storm made landfall and people have started to return home.
Three border posts along the Myanmar–Bangladesh border were attacked on 9 October by Harakah al-Yaqin, a resurgent group in Rakhine state which has supposed links to the Rohingya. In response, the Myanmar Army has deployed more troops into the northern Rakhine area, mainly in Maungdaw, and has conducted a security operation. At least 130 people have since been killed in raids and skirmishes. A state of emergency has been declared.
Heavier than usual monsoon rains have caused floods in Bangladesh since 20 July. Some 3,200,000 people have been affected and up to 42 have died as of 3 August. Up to 300,000 people have been displaced in 16 different districts, mostly in the Northern and Central provinces (including Bogra, Faridpur, Gaibandha, Jamalpur, Kurigram, Kustia, Lalmonirhat, Madaripur, Manikganj, Nilphamary, Rajbari, Rangpur, Sariatpur, Sirajgonj, Sunamgonj, and Tangail). Most urgent needs are food provisions, WASH, and Emergency Shelter.
Since 13 August continuous rainfall in north and northeastern Bangladesh, together with the onrush of water from upstream, have caused flash floods in low-lying and densely populated areas. More than 800,000 people have been affected, including 500,000 displaced. As of 25 August, humanitarian actors on the ground report nine deaths. The most affected districts include Nilphamari, Lalmonirhat, Kurigram, Rangpur, Gaibandha, Jamalpur, Sirajganj, Sunamjong and Sylhet.