HUMANITARIAN IMPACT OF EL NIÑO IN 2024
El Niño is expected to continue at least until April 2024.
El Niño-induced temperature and precipitation anomalies will continue during the first semester of 2024 in Central and South America (dry/wet conditions), East Africa (wet conditions), southern Africa (dry conditions), and Asia and the Pacific (dry/wet conditions).
Increasing humanitarian needs
Between January and June 2024, several countries already facing humanitarian crises may experience heatwaves, wildfires, floods, droughts, and epidemics due to El Niño.
El Niño is likely to increase humanitarian needs of the exposed populations, with food security and health expected to be the most affected sectors.
Climate change has the potential to amplify Niño-induced rainfall and temperature anomalies, triggering unpredictable and potentially more extreme outcomes.
JANUARY- JUNE 2024
RISK OF HUMANITARIAN IMPACTS FROM EL NIÑO
Disclaimer: Timor Leste and Vanuatu are not visible on this map. For more detailed information, please access the report.
What does ENSO stand for?
ENSO stands for El Niño and Southern Oscillation, a periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature and changes in the air pressure across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
ENSO is one of the main drivers of interannual climate variability. The two extreme ENSO phases are El Niño and La Niña. El Niño occurs when the surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than average, and La Niña occurs when these waters become cooler than average. These changes in sea-surface temperatures can cause shifts in atmospheric pressure and winds, leading to changes in rainfall patterns, temperature, and other weather-related phenomena worldwide.
Climate change can amplify the rainfall variability related to ENSO and increase the likelihood of extreme weather events. Global warming is also increasing ENSO ‘variability’, and strong El Niño and La Niña events have occurred more frequently than the pre-1960 average. More frequent swings from a strong El Niño to a strong La Niña are anticipated in the future.
GLOBAL HUMANITARIAN IMPACTS OF EL NIÑO
Click on this interactive diagram to explore the rainfall and temperature anomalies, the associated hazards, and the main humanitarian impact dimensions of El Niño.
How does ACAPS assess the risk of El Niño impact?
The assigned risk level of El Niño impact is based on expert judgement following an assessment per country of the indicators/factors listed on the right:
Historical impact of previous El Niño events in the country
Typical influence of El Niño between January and June in the country
Seasonal precipitation and temperature forecast for the first semester of 2024
Impact of El Niño in 2023 in the country and materialisation of seasonal forecasts/alerts
Pre-existing humanitarian crises and vulnerabilities to El Niño-related hazards
Agricultural seasonality
National/local response capacity to natural hazards/impact from natural hazards
Expected impact on agriculture, livestock, and fishery
Potential spill-over effects of El Niño on local food prices and the economy
Potential disease outbreaks and increased health needs
Analysis products
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Global climate analysis
06 August 2024
Colombia: drought and flooding in the Orinoquia region
DOCUMENT / PDF / 635 KB
The onset of El Niño in Colombia in November 2023 led to dry conditions in the Orinoquia region. These conditions resulted in food insecurity, water shortages and rationing, and wildfires, affecting an estimated 195,000 people, predominantly in Arauca department.
Attached resources
31 July 2024
Afghanistan: key climate change related risks between 2024–2030
DOCUMENT / PDF / 2 MB
This risk report outlines the main emerging risks driven or compounded by climate change with the potential to affect Afghanistan’s humanitarian situation and the wellbeing of its population between 2024–2030.
Attached resources
18 July 2024
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines: impact of Hurricane Beryl
DOCUMENT / PDF / 630 KB
On 1 July, Hurricane Beryl made landfall in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG) as a Category 4 hurricane, later evolving into a Category 5 hurricane boasting maximum sustained winds of 270km/h.
18 July 2024
Jamaica: impact of Hurricane Beryl
DOCUMENT / PDF / 374 KB
Hurricane Beryl hit Jamaica on 3 July 2024. The Category 4 hurricane is historically among the most powerful to have affected the country. By 9 July, 1,876 people had evacuated from coastal areas, such as Old Harbour Bay in St. Catherine, to 160 shelters in safer areas.
18 July 2024
Grenada: impact of Hurricane Beryl
DOCUMENT / PDF / 867 KB
Hurricane Beryl made landfall on 1 July as a category G4, moving west-northwest at approximately 20 mph with maximum sustained winds of 140 mph (UN 02/07/2024). In Grenada, Carriacou, Petite Martinique, and northern Grenada have been the hardest hit.