On 17 May, Iran announced plans to restrict Strait of Hormuz access to vessels cooperating with Tehran and to introduce transit fees. Commercial shipping remained largely frozen, with only 10 ships transiting on 16 May.

A drone strike on 17 May caused a fire at the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in the UAE. Authorities confirmed no injuries and no radiological impact, though the source of the strike remains unknown.

Iran is reportedly seeking to leverage subsea internet infrastructure beneath the Strait of Hormuz, with proposals to impose fees on submarine cables. Any disruption could trigger global financial, energy, and communications shocks.

To circumvent the maritime blockade, Iran has been expanding overland and rail trade routes through China, Pakistan, and Iraq. Rail trade with China has reportedly tripled since the blockade began.

War-risk insurance costs have risen five to tenfold as of 10 May, sharply reducing the economic feasibility of shipping operations across the region.

In Iran, the price of a basic food basket has increased by 62% between November 2025 and May 2026, with Iranian rice up 173% and chicken up 191%, against an inflation rate of 73.5% in Farvardin 2026. Around 3.2 million displaced people and 1.65 million refugees are likely to face reduced food access, while annual rent inflation in Tehran is estimated at 31.1%.

In Egypt, fertiliser prices have risen by 85% and fuel prices by up to 30% since the start of the war, forcing farmers to reduce cultivated land and lay off agricultural workers.

In Syria, WFP has cut emergency food assistance from 1.3 million to 650,000 people and halted a bread subsidy programme that previously reached 4 million people daily.

In Lebanon, food assistance for Syrian refugees is expected to fall from around 60% to 15% coverage after May 2026. Israeli military operations have affected 18,559 hectares of agricultural land and resulted in the death of 1,848,856 head of cattle, goats, sheep, and poultry.

In Iran, reported armed clashes between IRGC and regular army units in multiple cities, alongside detentions of army officers, point to deepening institutional tensions following the death of Ali Khamenei. 

Saudi Arabia is advancing a de-escalatory framework, described as a Gulf Helsinki model, built around non-aggression commitments and economic coordination involving Iran and European actors, though its durability remains uncertain. 

In Iran, 3,469 people have been killed and 32,314 injured as of 13 May, with around 3.2 million displaced and 400,000 in need of shelter assistance. A 79-day internet blackout and the suspension of most airline operations in Iranian airspace are significantly constraining humanitarian coordination and access.

In Lebanon, around 1,049,000 people are displaced, with 2,969 killed and 2,988 injured. A total of 161 healthcare incidents have been recorded, resulting in 110 deaths and 252 injuries among healthcare workers, while 3 hospitals and 42 primary healthcare centres remain closed. More than 31,000 buildings have been levelled and 448 schools remain non-operational due to their use as collective shelters.

In Syria, WFP has reduced food assistance coverage to 650,000 people and halted its bread subsidy programme, significantly narrowing the humanitarian safety net for an already food-insecure population.