On 28 February 2026, Israel and the US launched a joint military offensive against Iran, rapidly drawing in regional parties and triggering far-reaching economic and humanitarian consequences. The conflict is generating direct impacts in Iran and Lebanon, and wider disruptions to energy, food, and shipping systems across the globe. Even with a swift resolution, these impacts will likely persist into 2027. This analysis examines those ripple effects and sets out three scenarios for how the situation might develop over the next month.
The conflict has fundamentally disrupted global trade and energy systems. Approximately 25% of globally traded oil and around one-fifth of global LNG normally transit through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been largely blocked since hostilities began. Disruptions to energy, fertiliser, and remittance systems continue to negatively impact people across Africa, South Asia, and beyond.
3,375+
people killed in Iran
(27 April 2026)
1m+
people displaced in Lebanon
Within ten days of the initial attacks on Tehran, the conflict was already disrupting global trade and energy systems. Approximately 25% of globally traded oil and around one-fifth of global LNG normally transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Disruptions there send shocks through food, fertiliser, and remittance systems that reach communities across Africa, South Asia, and beyond.
RIPPLE EFFECTS
The conflict is generating ripple effects across four interconnected themes.
Energy and water security
Energy and water security
The Strait of Hormuz has been largely blocked since US and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered retaliation, with around 2,000 ships and 20,000 sailors stranded amid security threats and severe operational disruption.
Water and sanitation systems have been extensively damaged across multiple provinces in Iran, with up to 17% of people in some areas lacking clean water.
Economy, shipping and food security
Economy, shipping and food security
The de facto blockage of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt Gulf shipping and global energy markets.
Shipping costs to Yemen have more than doubled in some cases, from around USD 2,500 to up to USD 6,000 per 20-foot container, with additional war risk surcharges. In Lebanon, food prices rose 6% in March and fuel costs increased by up to 83%.
Around 90% of online businesses and 75% of home-based businesses in Iran have been affected by internet outages, with disproportionate impacts on women and informal workers.
In Gaza, around 90% of water and sanitation infrastructure has been damaged or destroyed, and one-third of requests to import essential water and sanitation materials have been rejected or left unanswered.
Conflict and social cohesion
Conflict and social cohesion
The US launched "Project Freedom" to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz; Iran rejected the initiative and escalated tensions by striking targets in the UAE and Oman and confronting US naval escorts at the beginning of May.
In Lebanon, over 100 incidents of infrastructure destruction have been recorded in a 10-kilometre zone north of the border since the 17 April ceasefire.
The Houthis have warned they could resume hostilities and threaten the Bab al-Mandab Strait if the US-Iran ceasefire collapses.
Humanitarian needs and access
Humanitarian needs and access
In Iran, 3,375 people have been killed and over 26,000 injured, with more than 3.2 million people displaced since 28 February.
Hundreds of thousands of residential units have been damaged, and nearly 1,000 educational facilities destroyed or damaged.
In Lebanon, over 1 million people are displaced, with only around 119,500 in formal shelters; 1.24 million people now face acute food insecurity, up from 874,000 previously projected.
The UN Flash Appeal for Lebanon of USD 308 million was only 22% funded as of mid-April.
Consequences of the disruptions are already being felt in Yemen, Somalia, Afghanistan, and Myanmar, where food and medicine costs have surged and humanitarian operations have been scaled back.
~ 50%
increase in global crude oil prices as of 18 March
25%
of globally traded oil transits the Strait of Hormuz
> 30%
of global seaborne urea fertiliser exports come from Gulf states
60%
of all humanitarian aid shipped through UNHRD goes via the Dubai hub, now effectively frozen
Even with a swift resolution to the conflict, the economic and humanitarian impacts will likely persist into 2027
Analysis products
on
Middle - East Conflict
28 April 2026
Bangladesh: Ripple effects of the Middle East Crisis on Cox's bazar
DOCUMENT / PDF / 3 MB
LPG has been life-changing in the Rohingya refugee camps (Bangladesh), but the US - Israel military offensive against Iran is putting supply at risk.
22 April 2026
Ukraine: impacts of the 2026 Middle East conflict
DOCUMENT / PDF / 341 KB
On 28 February, the United States and Israel launched a joint military offensive against Iran, prompting a regional escalation in the Middle East that has significantly disrupted global commodities markets and supply chains.
Attached resources
01 April 2026
Yemen: possible escalation pathways and anticipated humanitarian impacts
DOCUMENT / PDF / 512 KB
On 28 March, the DFA launched a ballistic missile towards central Israel, marking their first reported attack since the onset of the conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran. The Houthis stated that they would continue to conduct unspecified operations until the US and Israel cease military actions against Iran and its allies in the region
20 March 2026
Iran: Humanitarian consequences of the escalating conflict
DOCUMENT / PDF / 526 KB
By 12 March 2026, an estimated 3.2 million Iranians had been temporarily internally displaced following coordinated airstrikes targeting Iran’s military, nuclear, and strategic infrastructure launched by the United States and Israel on 28 February, marking the beginning of a major regional escalation.
20 March 2026
Middle East conflict: ripple effects and scenarios
DOCUMENT / PDF / 3 MB
This report uses descriptive, explanatory, and anticipatory analysis to help decision makers understand the scale of the ripple effects from the war, dividing the impacts into four themes:
- energy and water security
- economy, shipping disruption, and food security
- conflict and social cohesion
- humanitarian needs, gaps, and access.