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Country analysis

Somalia


8.25 million people in Somalia need humanitarian assistance. Conflict, insecurity, forced evictions, drought, and flooding have displaced more than 3.8 million people (internally or across borders).

Clan disputes, political tensions, national and foreign military campaigns against Al-Shabaab, and continuing Al-Shabaab attacks targeting civilians cause insecurity and instability across the country. Al-Shabaab controls parts of southern Somalia, particularly rural areas. National and foreign security forces have also carried out human rights abuses against civilians, such as killings and arbitrary arrests.

Somalia is highly vulnerable to natural hazards, such as drought and flooding. Somalia is currently experiencing an extended drought (the most acute in 70 years), which began in late 2020 and has continued into 2023. In early 2023, the drought progressively worsened after a fifth consecutive below-average rainy season.

The drought has affected 7.8 million people and internally displaced 1.75 million people throughout the country. More than 80% of the country is facing drought conditions, and weather forecasts highlight the possibility of a sixth below-average rainy season from March–May 2023, which would worsen acute food insecurity.

(OCHA 08/02/2023, IOM 28/02/2023, ICG 21/06/2022, IPC 28/02/2023, OCHA 18/08/2022)

8.25 million people in Somalia need humanitarian assistance. Conflict, insecurity, forced evictions, drought, and flooding have displaced more than 3.8 million people (internally or across borders).

Clan disputes, political tensions, national and foreign military campaigns against Al-Shabaab, and continuing Al-Shabaab attacks targeting civilians cause insecurity and instability across the country. Al-Shabaab controls parts of southern Somalia, particularly rural areas. National and foreign security forces have also carried out human rights abuses against civilians, such as killings and arbitrary arrests.

Somalia is highly vulnerable to natural hazards, such as drought and flooding. Somalia is currently experiencing an extended drought (the most acute in 70 years), which began in late 2020 and has continued into 2023. In early 2023, the drought progressively worsened after a fifth consecutive below-average rainy season.

The drought has affected 7.8 million people and internally displaced 1.75 million people throughout the country. More than 80% of the country is facing drought conditions, and weather forecasts highlight the possibility of a sixth below-average rainy season from March–May 2023, which would worsen acute food insecurity.

(OCHA 08/02/2023, IOM 28/02/2023, ICG 21/06/2022, IPC 28/02/2023, OCHA 18/08/2022)

Latest updates on country situation

09 November 2023

As at 8 November 2023, flooding from the seasonal Deyr rains (October–December) had affected over 1.17million people in 21 districts. The Federal Government of Somalia has declared a state of emergency as El Niño-fuelled rains intensify across Banadir, Galmudug, Hirshabelle, Jubaland, Puntland, and Southwest states. The flooding has temporarily displaced over 310,000 people, with more than 1.6 million at risk of the impact of rising water levels. Disruptions to roads and bridges are constraining access, trapping over 2,400 people in Luuq district and more than 84,000 people in Baardheere from the main town. In Galmudug and Puntland, the flooding has affected more than 400 IDP sites, damaging shelters, latrines, and other infrastructure, and increased the need for emergency relief supplies, especially shelter and NFIs, food, WASH services, and emergency evacuations. (OCHA 09/11/2023, OCHA 06/11/2023)

17 October 2023

The 2023 Deyr rainy season (October–December), expected to cause above-average precipitation because of El Niño, has flooded parts of Somalia. By 4 October, flooding in Baidoa district (Southwest state) had affected 107,000 people. Floodwaters had damaged the shelters of 86,000 IDPs in 136 collective sites Baidoa city. 305 latrines had also sustained damage, increasing the risk of waterborne diseases. Eight educational facilities had closed, affecting learning for 6,000 students. Mahady Weyne and Luuq have also experienced flooding. There is also a likelihood of continued riverine flooding along the Juba and Shabelle Rivers. Moderate to heavy rains are predicted over the Ethiopian highlands and river catchment areas, with soils along the river already saturated. Water levels along the Shabelle River have steadily surpassed the levels observed in 2022. About 1.2 million people living in riverine areas and over 1.5 million hectares of land could be affected. (OCHA 07/10/2023, FAO 12/10/2023, OCHA 12/10/2023)

28 September 2023

In July 2023, a confidential UN investigation found aid misuse and misappropriation by a network of landowners, clan leaders referred to as 'gatekeepers', police, and other local authorities in Somalia. This led to a temporary suspension of WFP funding by the European Commission in mid-September. Aid diversion was mostly recorded in Baidoa, Banadir, and Gaalkacyo, where IDPs mainly from minority clans were forced to pay gatekeepers a certain percentage of the aid they received in cash or aid products, which were then resold in markets. According to the UN investigation, aid diversion in Somalia was recurrent, widespread, and systemic. This occurred even when about 4.3 million people were expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse food insecurity levels and approximately 1.5 million under-five children were expected to be acutely malnourished until December 2023. (Devex 18/09/2023, Reuters 19/09/2023, IPC 18/09/2023)

18 July 2023

On 11 July, Al Shabaab imposed a blockade on Baidoa, restricting movement on roads to and from the town. Baidoa is the capital of South West state and Bay region's main economic hub.
The blockade affected economic activities and transportation services in Baidoa, limiting food supply and causing price increases of available stocks. Fuel shortages were also reported, limiting humanitarians' ability to reach people in need within the town. Humanitarian movement outside of Baidoa is also restricted because of the blockade, cutting off access of people in need who live outside the town from aid and assistance. As at early 2023, Baidoa hosts about 600,000 people displaced by drought and conflict.
The blockade is seen as a retaliation by Al Shabaab to the latest Somali Government's directives and counter-insurgency operations against the group. As at 18 July, the blockade is still in place.


(ECHO 13/07/2023, VoA 17/07/2023, Garowe online 18/07/2023)

26 May 2023

The Horn of Africa is facing a humanitarian crisis caused by climatic change and insecurity. The 2020–2022 drought displaced 2.7 million people and killed 13 million livestock. Deteriorating livelihoods, poor economic conditions, and insecurity are driving hunger, with more than 20 million people needing food assistance in Ethiopia, 1.2 million facing emergency levels of need in Kenya, and 6.6 million in Somalia anticipating Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse food insecurity levels in June 2023. Approximately 1.2 million children, including 528,000 in Ethiopia, 242,500 in Kenya, and 478,000 in Somalia, will suffer from severe acute malnutrition. In Somalia, acute food insecurity is projected to deteriorate through June 2023, bringing 40,350 people to Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) food insecurity levels and facing starvation as a result of drought, high prices, and conflict. The 2023 humanitarian response is only 20% funded, with significant programming cuts expected. (OCHA 26/05/2023, DRC 21/05/2023, WFP 29/05/2023)

14 April 2023

Since the beginning of the Gu rainy season in March 2023, flash and riverine floods have affected over 175,000 people, with 140,000 displaced as at 13 April. Most IDPs are in Baardheere district in the Gedo region of Jubaland state and Baidoa district in the Bay region of Southwest state.


The flooding has caused livestock losses and damaged roads, schools, health centres, farmlands, and homes, affecting access to food and livelihoods, health, and education. Floodwaters have swept away around 27,500 livestock in the Gedo region of Jubaland state and killed 1,700 livestock in Somaliland and Puntland states, compounding previous drought-related livestock losses.


Stagnant water and inadequate access to WASH facilities also increase the risk of waterborne diseases such as acute watery diarrhoea and cholera. Since January, around 4,000 suspected cholera cases (over 50% being children) with 15 associated deaths have been reported.


(OCHA 13/04/2023, OCHA 03/04/2023, WHO 19/04/2023)

03 April 2023

Since the beginning of the Gu rainy season in March 2023, flooding has affected 100,000 people and killed at least 23 countrywide. Baardheere district (Jubaland state) has been the most affected, with 78,000 people affected and 21 killed.


The floods have damaged 1,000 hectares of farmland, 200 latrines, six health facilities, and four schools. The damage to schools and loss of learning materials have disrupted education for 3,000 children. Floodwaters have also killed or swept away more than 1,700 livestock in Somaliland and Puntland states, compounding previous drought-related livestock losses.


Inadequate access to WASH facilities and the possible contamination of water sources during the rainy season could worsen current outbreaks of acute watery diarrhoea and cholera.


Some IDPs in Banadir region and Hirshabelle, Puntland, and Southwest states face secondary displacement after the floods damaged their makeshift shelters. Stagnant floodwaters and damaged roads have made some areas, such as IDP sites in Baidoa town and parts of Dhuusamareeb town, inaccessible. Affected populations need food, shelter, WASH, and NFIs.
(OCHA 03/04/2023, UNICEF 04/2023, Crisis24 25/03/2023)

current crises
in Somalia


These crises have been identified through the INFORM Severity Index, a tool for measuring and comparing the severity of humanitarian crises globally.

Read more about the Index

REG014 - Eastern Africa Regional Drought Crisis

Last updated 30/11/2023


Drivers

Drought

Crisis level

Regional

Severity level

4.2 Very High

Access constraints

5.0

SOM001 - Complex crisis

Last updated 30/11/2023


Drivers

Conflict
Displacement
Floods
Drought

Crisis level

Country

Severity level

4.7 Very High

Access constraints

4.0

SOM002 - Mixed Migration

Last updated 30/11/2023


Drivers

Displacement

Crisis level

Country

Severity level

2 Low

Access constraints

4.0

Analysis products
on Somalia

Somalia: flooding in Baidoa

26 October 2023

Somalia: flooding in Baidoa

DOCUMENT / PDF / 2 MB

Heavy rains that began on 4 October 2023 have resulted in flash floods across Baidoa district, in Bay region, Southwest state, Somalia. The floods had affected more than 122,000 people (20,347 families) as at 23 October. The most affected regions are Baidoa city and the surrounding low-lying areas. 

Natural hazards
Somalia: risk of worsening existing humanitarian needs in conflict-affected areas

17 August 2023

Somalia: risk of worsening existing humanitarian needs in conflict-affected areas

DOCUMENT / PDF / 518 KB

This report provides a forward-looking analysis of the progressive withdrawal of the African Union Transition Mission, the transition of security operations to the Somali Security Forces (SSF), and how this will worsen existing humanitarian needs in conflictaffected areas.

Conflict and violence
Horn of Africa: Impact of drought on children

24 April 2023

Horn of Africa: Impact of drought on children

DOCUMENT / PDF / 5 MB

Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia are currently experiencing one of the worst droughts in 60 years. The current drought is driving significant levels not only of food insecurity but also of WASH, health, and nutrition needs for the affected population.

Natural hazards
Somalia: Key crises to watch in 2023

13 April 2023

Somalia: Key crises to watch in 2023

DOCUMENT / PDF / 1 MB

This report provides an overview of four key humanitarian crises across Somalia that are expected to deteriorate or see a significant humanitarian impact during 2023. It aims at informing humanitarian decision-making and programming by anticipating humanitarian needs in different regions of the country.

Somalia: impact of drought Banadir and Bay regions

27 January 2023

Somalia: impact of drought Banadir and Bay regions

DOCUMENT / PDF / 619 KB

This report provides an overview of the humanitarian needs resulting from the current drought in particularly affected regions of Somalia (Banadir and Bay). The report highlights key needs, the key population groups affected, coping mechanisms, compounding factors, access constraints, and response capacities for each area of focus.

Natural hazards
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