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Country analysis

Palestine


The Israel–Palestine conflict continues to generate severe needs driven by the Israeli occupation, recurring periods of escalating hostilities, international humanitarian and human rights law violations, and internal Palestinian political division. In 2025, an estimated 3.3 million (all 2.1 million Gazans and 1.2 million from the West Bank) out of a population of 5.3 million will need humanitarian assistance.

In Gaza, the latest round of hostilities that erupted in October 2023 has displaced almost the entire population, with many multiply displaced. People continue to face severe challenges in accessing shelter, water, food, health services, and education, especially after the Israeli blockade since 2 March 2025. The entire population faces Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse food insecurity, including at least 22% in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Deaths from starvation have been reported daily since at least mid-July.

In the West Bank, Palestinians face serious protection challenges from the Israeli occupation and settler violence. On 21 January, Israel started a military operation affecting Jenin, Tubas, and Tulkarem governorates, displacing nearly 36,000 people by July. Israeli settler violence and harassment continue in the West Bank, including attacks on Palestinian houses, livestock, and crops, as well as the establishment of new Israeli outposts. (OCHA 11/12/2024, UN 29/07/2025, UNRWA 25/07/2025, OCHA 03/07/2025, IPC 12/05/2025)

The Israel–Palestine conflict continues to generate severe needs driven by the Israeli occupation, recurring periods of escalating hostilities, international humanitarian and human rights law violations, and internal Palestinian political division. In 2025, an estimated 3.3 million (all 2.1 million Gazans and 1.2 million from the West Bank) out of a population of 5.3 million will need humanitarian assistance.

In Gaza, the latest round of hostilities that erupted in October 2023 has displaced almost the entire population, with many multiply displaced. People continue to face severe challenges in accessing shelter, water, food, health services, and education, especially after the Israeli blockade since 2 March 2025. The entire population faces Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse food insecurity, including at least 22% in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Deaths from starvation have been reported daily since at least mid-July.

In the West Bank, Palestinians face serious protection challenges from the Israeli occupation and settler violence. On 21 January, Israel started a military operation affecting Jenin, Tubas, and Tulkarem governorates, displacing nearly 36,000 people by July. Israeli settler violence and harassment continue in the West Bank, including attacks on Palestinian houses, livestock, and crops, as well as the establishment of new Israeli outposts. (OCHA 11/12/2024, UN 29/07/2025, UNRWA 25/07/2025, OCHA 03/07/2025, IPC 12/05/2025)

Latest updates on country situation

15 October 2026

Between 9–11 October, hundreds of Palestinians already displaced in Ash-Shuja’iya neighbourhood, east of Gaza City, were forced to flee again after Israeli forces moved ‘yellow line’ markers westward, bringing their homes and shelters within the area under Israeli military control. Shelling and building demolitions had affected the neighbourhood in preceding days. Newly displaced families need shelter, food, water, and other essentials, while Israeli restrictions on humanitarian aid and insecurity continue to constrain access to assistance across Gaza, especially in areas adjacent to the ‘yellow line’. Over the past year, Israel has repeatedly moved the ‘yellow line’, increasing its control of Gaza’s territory from 53% in October 2025 to 65% in October 2026. (PIC 11/10/2026, MSF 05/10/2026, Quds Net 12/10/2026)

15 October 2026

At the start of the olive harvest season, Israeli authorities’ access restrictions and Israeli settler attacks threaten the livelihoods of 80,000–100,000 West Bank families relying on olives and olive oil for income. In Faqqu’a village, farmers received permission to harvest only around 20 of 2,500 dunums in Wadi Masus, and only on one day, preventing them from completing a harvest that usually takes five to six days. In Bethlehem governorate, around 35% of olive-growing land was inaccessible to farmers by 4 October. These restrictions risk reducing olive production and household income. (FSC 09/10/2026, PNN 04/10/2026, Raya 12/10/2026)

07 October 2026

Since the ceasefire took effect on 10 October 2025, Israeli attacks in Gaza have fallen by about 55% compared with the 12 months before the ceasefire but remain about 14 times more frequent than before October 2023. Most attacks involved remote fire, with shelling and air/drone strikes making up 87%. By 5 October 2026, at least 1,460 people had been killed and over 5,100 injured, indicating continued exposure to violence despite the ceasefire. By July 2026, Israeli forces controlled an estimated 67–70% of the Gaza Strip, according to senior Israeli military officials, leaving most of Gaza's population concentrated in the remaining area. Humanitarian access continued to be severely constrained, reducing people's access to humanitarian assistance and contributing to inflation remaining high, at 204% above pre-October 2023 levels in September. Gaza remains projected among the areas of highest concern for hunger for June–November 2026. (ACLED accessed 07/10/2026, OCHA 05/10/2026, Gaza MoH Telegram accessed 07/10/2026, The Jerusalem Post 15/07/2026)

30 September 2026

On 23 September, displaced families in Jabalia camp held a spontaneous demonstration calling for lighting and tarpaulins. They live near the yellow line, in areas that are difficult for humanitarian responders to access, without adequate shelter or basic supplies because of Israeli attacks since 7 October 2023. The number of people living there is unknown, but an estimated 212,000 people face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food insecurity between July–December 2026, many of whom live in areas close to the yellow line. Families also report rodents entering their tents, increasing the urgent need for lighting, food, water, and winter shelter assistance. (Quds 23/09/2026, PRP 29/09/2026, WFP 23/07/2026)

23 September 2026

Damage to shelters across Gaza is expected to increase with the approach of winter, as rainfall, soil erosion, and additional water weight further weaken structures already damaged by the conflict. By June, over 201,000 structures (82% of all structures across Gaza) showed damage and were considered unsafe shelters. Damage severity varies sharply by governorate, ranging from 7% in Deir Al Balah to 36% in North Gaza, where buildings are severely damaged or partially collapsed. In August, 94% of Gaza's population (approximately 1.98 million people) were in Crisis Shelter Severity (Phase 3) domestic living conditions or worse, including 84% in Critical (Phase 4) or Catastrophic (Phase 5) conditions. A building collapse in Gaza City on 17 September killed 21 displaced Palestinians, highlighting the risk of further collapse. Restrictions on tents, caravans, and reconstruction materials, alongside shortages of heavy civil-defence equipment, continue to limit evacuation and emergency response. (OCHA 07/08/2026, NRC 20/08/2026, AJ 20/09/2026)

09 September 2026

Microbiological contamination in Gaza’s water samples nearly tripled from 6% in January to 18% in August 2026, as all five wastewater treatment plants remained out of service and around 55,000m³ of untreated wastewater was discharged or leaked daily. Acute watery diarrhoea cases nearly doubled from 30,000 in March to 58,000 in August. The upcoming rainy season (typically from November–March) and flooding could further spread contamination. Priority needs include safe water, wastewater systems, fuel and spare parts, disease surveillance, and improved sanitation and drainage. (UN 01/09/2026, AJ 08/09/2026, WAFA 02/09/2026)

02 September 2026

Increasing settler attacks in Areas A and B are contributing to a broader pattern of coercive displacement, as is happening in Qusra town, Nablus governorate. Since 9 August 2026, three Palestinian households, comprising about 15 people, have faced severe access and movement restrictions following the establishment of an Israeli settlement outpost nearby. Settler attacks on homes and physical assaults limit residents’ access to food, water, and essential supplies. Settlers have also prevented an ambulance from reaching people affected by the attacks, heightening protection concerns and further restricting access to healthcare. (UN 13/08/2026, OCHA 28/08/2026, AJ 29/08/2026)

current crises
in Palestine


These crises have been identified through the INFORM Severity Index, a tool for measuring and comparing the severity of humanitarian crises globally.

Read more about the Index

PSE003 - Conflict in the West Bank

Last updated 28/09/2026


Drivers

Conflict/ Violence

Crisis level

Country

Severity level

7.3 High

Access constraints

8.0

PSE004 - Conflict in Gaza

Last updated 28/09/2026


Drivers

Conflict/ Violence

Crisis level

Country

Severity level

8.1 Very High

Access constraints

10.0

PSE002 - Multiple crises

Last updated 28/09/2026


Drivers

Conflict/ Violence

Crisis level

Country

Severity level

8.4 Very High

Access constraints

10.0

Active risks

Active
High
Date
02-08-2026
Country
Palestine

Permanent military exclusion zone east of the Yellow Line before the Israeli elections increases displacement and humanitarian access constraints

Risk type
Marked deterioration in an existing crisis
Active
High
Date
02-10-2026
Country
Palestine

Accelerated implementation of the E1 settlement plan results in demolitions, displacement of Bedouin communities, and access constraints

Risk type
Marked deterioration in an existing crisis

Analysis products
on Palestine

21 September 2026

Palestine: deteriorating humanitarian conditions in Area C, West Bank

Palestinians in Area C face a growing risk of forced displacement as Israeli legal and administrative measures, settlement expansion, movement restrictions, and targeted violence increasingly constrain their ability to live, move, and sustain their livelihoods. This analysis focuses on developments since the current Israeli government took office in December 2022, using earlier data where necessary to establish baselines and trends.

 

Read more

Displacement
Middle East conflict: ripple effects and scenarios

20 March 2026

Middle East conflict: ripple effects and scenarios

DOCUMENT / PDF / 3 MB

This report uses descriptive, explanatory, and anticipatory analysis to help decision makers understand the scale of the ripple effects from the war, dividing the impacts into four themes:

- energy and water security

- economy, shipping disruption, and food security

- conflict and social cohesion

- humanitarian needs, gaps, and access.

Conflict and violence
Palestine: potential implications of the indefinite partial closure of border crossings in Gaza

05 March 2026

Palestine: potential implications of the indefinite partial closure of border crossings in Gaza

DOCUMENT / PDF / 319 KB

This anticipatory analysis aims to alert humanitarian responders to the potential humanitarian implications of the indefinite partial closure of Gaza’s border crossings and how a collapse of the ceasefire would further aggravate needs. 

Anticipatory analysis

10 February 2026

Anticipating Possible US Strikes on Iran

On 6 February, US and Iranian negotiators met in Muscat against the backdrop of potential military confrontation. In recent weeks, the US has been positioning more offensive and defensive military assets into the region than during the June 2025 12-Day War, creating conditions for what Trump dubbed a ‘decisive’ attack against Iran, while Tehran and its regional allies have pledged a ‘painful response’ to any attack, with Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, warning of a possible confrontation: “this time it will be a regional war.”

 

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Humanitarian access overview: spotlight on fragmented contexts

10 February 2026

Humanitarian access overview: spotlight on fragmented contexts

DOCUMENT / PDF / 1 MB

Between June–November 2025, crisis-affected populations in 36 countries experienced high to extreme humanitarian access constraints, according to the ACAPS humanitarian access analysis framework. Operational barriers, including the requirement for aid organisations to secure multiple sequential approvals, fragmented service coverage across jurisdictions, and increased reliance on remote modalities, further hindered their ability to meet basic needs. 

Humanitarian access
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