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Country analysis

Iran


Escalating hostilities between Iran, Israel, and the US since late February 2026 have intensified humanitarian pressures across Iran. Air strikes and retaliatory attacks have caused civilian casualties, damaged hospitals, schools, and water infrastructure, and disrupted essential services. Strikes on industrial and oil facilities raise environmental and public health risks for nearby communities.

These shocks hit a population already facing sanctions, economic decline, drought, and rising unemployment, which limit households’ ability to afford food, healthcare, and other basic services. Internal displacement is increasing in affected areas, while health, water, and social protection systems are under growing strain.

Iran continues to host one of the world’s largest Afghan populations: around four million Afghans of different legal statuses, mostly in urban and peri‑urban areas. In 2025, Iran intensified deportations of undocumented Afghans, returning almost two million people to Afghanistan, with deportations continuing into 2026. Undocumented Afghans remaining in Iran face heightened risks of detention and deportation, labour exploitation, and limited access to education, healthcare, and protection services.

(UNHCR 10/03/2026, UNHCR accessed 24/02/2025, UNHCR 24/02/2026, MMC 20/11/2025)

Escalating hostilities between Iran, Israel, and the US since late February 2026 have intensified humanitarian pressures across Iran. Air strikes and retaliatory attacks have caused civilian casualties, damaged hospitals, schools, and water infrastructure, and disrupted essential services. Strikes on industrial and oil facilities raise environmental and public health risks for nearby communities.

These shocks hit a population already facing sanctions, economic decline, drought, and rising unemployment, which limit households’ ability to afford food, healthcare, and other basic services. Internal displacement is increasing in affected areas, while health, water, and social protection systems are under growing strain.

Iran continues to host one of the world’s largest Afghan populations: around four million Afghans of different legal statuses, mostly in urban and peri‑urban areas. In 2025, Iran intensified deportations of undocumented Afghans, returning almost two million people to Afghanistan, with deportations continuing into 2026. Undocumented Afghans remaining in Iran face heightened risks of detention and deportation, labour exploitation, and limited access to education, healthcare, and protection services.

(UNHCR 10/03/2026, UNHCR accessed 24/02/2025, UNHCR 24/02/2026, MMC 20/11/2025)

Latest updates on country situation

11 March 2026

US and Israeli air strikes in Iran have disrupted healthcare access, damaging more than 25 hospitals, with nine rendered out of service. By 9 March 2026, the strikes had killed over 1,255 civilians and injured more than 12,000, including women and children, with the figures expected to continue increasing. In the first two days of fighting, more than 100,000 people fled Tehran city, and displacement is expected to rise significantly. (UNHCR 10/03/2026, AJ 09/03/2026, Open Magazine 09/03/2026)

04 March 2026

Since 28 February 2026, widespread US and Israeli strikes across 24 of Iran's 31 provinces had killed 1,000 people by 4 March and disrupted basic services and livelihoods. Casualties include approximately 180 children killed in a 28 February missile strike on a primary school in Minab in southern Iran. Critical healthcare infrastructure has sustained heavy structural damage; Gandhi Hospital in Tehran has suffered severe damage, with patients at risk. Schools have closed, limiting education access. A near-total internet shutdown has reduced national connectivity to approximately 4%, severely hampering emergency coordination and humanitarian response. Electricity, water, fuel supply, and food distribution networks face significant disruption. Internal displacement remains undocumented, though media cite movements towards the countryside. The most affected population groups include children, older people, people with disabilities, those with chronic illnesses, women caregivers, economically marginalised groups, and Afghan refugees. Limited INGO presence and operational space compound the humanitarian challenge. (AJ 01/03/2026, Reuters 01/03/2026, OCHA 03/03/2026)

20 January 2026

Mass protests that erupted on 28 December 2025 have compounded the humanitarian situation in Iran, marked by acute protection risks, collapsing health access, and deepening livelihood strains. Since 8 January 2026, a nationwide internet blackout has prevented the independent verification of casualties and restricted access to emergency services. Violent state crackdown has killed over 3,300 people, with thousands arrested, although exact figures remain unconfirmed. Hospitals across Tehran and Ilam cities are overwhelmed with patients suffering from gunshot and pellet wounds. Medical staff report treatment capacity shortages and security force raids on hospital wards disrupting emergency care. The scale of needs remains unknown given significant information gaps. The internet blackout has also amplified economic hardship for small businesses relying on social media and internet-dependent applications, leaving many unable to work. Prolonged uncertainty over internet restoration is fuelling fears of nationwide job losses, wage delays, and deepened poverty amid hyperinflation. (Reuters 20/01/2026, Iran International 19/01/2026, The Guardian 13/01/2026)

11 November 2025

Iran is facing a severe drought crisis, with water reservoirs supplying Tehran (with a population of ten million) dropping to 8–11% of capacity, raising fears that the city could run out of safe drinking water within weeks. By 8 November 2025, authorities were planning intermittent water cuts, likely forcing low-income households to rely on unsafe water sources. Continued drought and water scarcity are causing significant health risks. Power outages resulting from water shortages can affect medical facilities, causing medicine and vaccine refrigeration issues and aggravating healthcare disruptions. The water shortages disproportionally affect women, who are traditionally tasked to handle childcare, elder care, cooking, and hygiene. They must manage daily water needs during long outages, queue at water tankers, and handle rising costs, which can lead to mental health issues. The intersection of water shortages, economic inflation, and drought-triggered disruptions is deepening needs, increasing social unrest risks and potentially driving displacement. (BBC 10/11/2025,
France 24 08/11/2025, WNCRI 12/10/2025)

20 May 2025

Since 20 March 2025, more than 242,800 Afghans have returned to Afghanistan from Iran following the Iranian Government’s deadline for extending headcount slips. These mass returns are occurring amid an already deteriorating humanitarian situation in Afghanistan, where returnees face critical challenges upon arrival. In April alone, more than 251,000 Afghans returned from Pakistan and Iran, including more than 96,000 deported. Most lack adequate shelter, income, access to food, clean water, and healthcare. By May 2024, almost 87% of returnee households required housing assistance, 80% needed financial support, and 71% lacked sufficient food. New arrivals are likely to encounter similar hardships. Many families live in informal camps or overcrowded shelters with limited services. The healthcare system faces challenges, and access to education, especially for returnee children and women, is limited. Employment opportunities are scarce, especially for those without documentation, aggravated by the economic crisis. (UNHCR 13/05/2025, UNHCR 29/04/2025, UNHCR 28/05/2024)

03 April 2023

The situation for Afghan refugees in Iran is becoming increasingly difficult. Since January 2023, over 250,000 refugees returned to Afghanistan from Iran, at least half of them facing some form of coercion. Displaced Afghan people face protection risks, including family separation, violence, and persecution. The situation is particularly unpredictable for undocumented people, who have limited access to services. The process of renewing documentation for refugees has also become more complicated, putting documented refugees at risk of becoming undocumented. Access to education has been impeded by the lack of documentation, affordability, and child labour. The situation is compounded by the political and economic situation in Iran, where social unrest and inflation (64% in March 2023) are making it difficult for refugees to meet their basic needs. Limited livelihood opportunities and restricted access to employment have lowered purchasing power and increased protection risks from negative coping strategies. Afghan refugees in Iran face discrimination and growing resentment caused by economic pressure and perceived competition for jobs. Despite Iran's history of being inclusive to refugees, recent reports show the mistreatment towards Afghan refugees by both government officials and civilians, including physical abuse and wrongful detention. (IOM 19/04/2023, UNHCR 09/03/2023, EU 11/01/2023, The Khaama Press 27/03/2023, Iran International 02/04/2023)

current crises
in Iran


These crises have been identified through the INFORM Severity Index, a tool for measuring and comparing the severity of humanitarian crises globally.

Read more about the Index

IRN001 - Multiple crises

Last updated 19/03/2026


Drivers

Conflict/ Violence
International Displacement
Political/economic crisis

Crisis level

Country

Severity level

7.8 High

Access constraints

2.0

IRN005 - Conflict

Last updated 19/03/2026


Drivers

Conflict/ Violence
Political/economic crisis

Crisis level

Country

Severity level

7.4 High

Access constraints

2.0

IRN004 - Displacement from Afghanistan

Last updated 19/03/2026


Drivers

International Displacement

Crisis level

Country

Severity level

7.9 High

Access constraints

9.0

Active risks

Active
High
Date
11-09-2025
Country
Iran

Rising water scarcity in Iran leads to a deterioration in health, food security, and livelihood needs

Risk type
Marked deterioration in an existing crisis
Active
High
Date
25-02-2026
Country
Iran

Direct US–Iran military confrontation causes mass civilian casualties in Iran and regional conflict spillover, leading to displacement and service collapse

Risk type
New emerging risk

Analysis products
on Iran

Middle East conflict: ripple effects and scenarios

20 March 2026

Middle East conflict: ripple effects and scenarios

DOCUMENT / PDF / 3 MB

This report uses descriptive, explanatory, and anticipatory analysis to help decision makers understand the scale of the ripple effects from the war, dividing the impacts into four themes:

- energy and water security

- economy, shipping disruption, and food security

- conflict and social cohesion

- humanitarian needs, gaps, and access.

Conflict and violence
Iran: Humanitarian consequences of the escalating conflict

20 March 2026

Iran: Humanitarian consequences of the escalating conflict

DOCUMENT / PDF / 526 KB

By 12 March 2026, an estimated 3.2 million Iranians had been temporarily internally displaced following coordinated airstrikes targeting Iran’s military, nuclear, and strategic infrastructure launched by the United States and Israel on 28 February, marking the beginning of a major regional escalation.

Conflict and violenceDisplacement

10 February 2026

Anticipating Possible US Strikes on Iran

On 6 February, US and Iranian negotiators met in Muscat against the backdrop of potential military confrontation. In recent weeks, the US has been positioning more offensive and defensive military assets into the region than during the June 2025 12-Day War, creating conditions for what Trump dubbed a ‘decisive’ attack against Iran, while Tehran and its regional allies have pledged a ‘painful response’ to any attack, with Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, warning of a possible confrontation: “this time it will be a regional war.”

 

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Iran: Earthquake in Kermanshah

14 November 2017

Iran: Earthquake in Kermanshah

DOCUMENT / PDF / 525 KB

On the evening of 12 November, a 7.3 magnitude earthquake occurred in Kermanshah province with widespread damage reported across the province. Sar pol-e Zahab and Qasr-e Shirin are reported hardest hit. Early estimates indicate that over 400 lives have been lost and over 6,600 people were injured. Reports indicate that an estimated 70,000 people are in need of emergency shelter.

Natural hazards
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