This report provides an overview of key humanitarian crises expected to deteriorate or see a significant humanitarian impact in the next five months in South Sudan.

As at 14 May 2023, the conflict that began on 15 April in Sudan had displaced more than 57,000 people to South Sudan. 90% of this number were conflict-displaced South Sudanese returnees. The majority of the displaced are settling in border towns in Upper Nile state. 

Since August, flash and riverine floods have been severely affecting South Sudan, as is typical during the rainy season (April–November). Most of the country had below-average rainfall in June–July. The extent of flooding more than doubled between early August and early October, from 22,000km2 of South Sudan’s landmass to 48,000km2.

Possible developments of movement and settlement patterns and humanitarian needs in the next six months after the redesignation of the Protection of Civilians sites.

Taking into account a range of variables that affect South Sudanese access to basic needs and services, these scenarios consider developments that could have humanitarian consequences and impact on access to basic needs within South Sudan over the coming six to twelve months.

ACAPS mapped the information landscape in South Sudan with the objective of identifying information gaps and needs, as well as good practices in data collection and analysis. The overall aim is to support the assessment and analysis community in South Sudan by seeing clearly what is already available in terms of data and information and what areas of the analysis ecosystem could be strengthened.

Heavy flooding cause by intense seasonal rains has been impacting large areas of South Sudan. An estimated 900,000 people have been affected and an estimated 420,000 people have been displaced, as floods have destroyed shelters and infrastructure and disrupted people’s access to services. Major access constraints hamper humanitarian assistance. The floods are compounding pre-existing humanitarian needs, including food insecurity and malnutrition, related to the complex crisis in South Sudan.

About 150,000 people are facing famine in Nigeria and South Sudan. Another 9 million face Emergency food security outcomes (IPC 4) in Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, and Yemen, and could face Famine (IPC 5), if no assistance is provided between May and August, when the lean season takes hold.

671 cholera cases have been reported in Awerial county, Lakes, since June 2016, of which at least 117 are new cases since 6 March. Most new cases have been reported in Mingkaman IDP camp. A lack of WASH facilities has been reported, further spreading the outbreak. 

Famine was declared in Unity state in February 2017 after months of a deteriorating food security situation across South Sudan. An estimated 100,000 people are facing Famine (IPC Phase 5) food security outcomes in Unity state, and 4.9 million people are currently food insecure (IPC Phases 3 to 5) across South Sudan – an increase of 1.5 million since the beginning of 2016. 

This assessment is a consolidated effort of the Ministry of General Education and Instruction, Cluster members and the Assessment Capacities Project (ACAPS) towards determining the impact of the most recent conflict, displacement and economic crisis on children’s education in South Sudan.

Since mid-July over 15,000 South Sudanese refugees have arrived in the territories of Faradge and Aru in Haut-Uele and Ituri provinces following a resurgence of violence in South Sudan. There is now a total of 27,250 registered South Sudanese refugees in the territories of Faradge and Aru in Haut-Uele and Ituri provinces. The new arrivals have received little humanitarian assistance. 

As of 16 July, an estimated 12,800 people remain displaced after fighting erupted in Juba over 7–11 July. They are at UN House, UNMISS Tongping, Don Bosco Gumbo, Rajaf village, St Joseph Parish Church, SSRC Compound, and San Francis Pitia school. Humanitarian agencies currently have access, but this is not stable as the ceasefire is fragile and the situation remains tense. Main needs include water, food, health, and protection.