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20 March 2026
Middle East conflict: ripple effects and scenarios
DOCUMENT / PDF / 3 MB
This report uses descriptive, explanatory, and anticipatory analysis to help decision makers understand the scale of the ripple effects from the war, dividing the impacts into four themes:
- energy and water security
- economy, shipping disruption, and food security
- conflict and social cohesion
- humanitarian needs, gaps, and access.
20 March 2026
Iran: Humanitarian consequences of the escalating conflict
DOCUMENT / PDF / 526 KB
By 12 March 2026, an estimated 3.2 million Iranians had been temporarily internally displaced following coordinated airstrikes targeting Iran’s military, nuclear, and strategic infrastructure launched by the United States and Israel on 28 February, marking the beginning of a major regional escalation.
10 February 2026
Anticipating Possible US Strikes on Iran
On 6 February, US and Iranian negotiators met in Muscat against the backdrop of potential military confrontation. In recent weeks, the US has been positioning more offensive and defensive military assets into the region than during the June 2025 12-Day War, creating conditions for what Trump dubbed a ‘decisive’ attack against Iran, while Tehran and its regional allies have pledged a ‘painful response’ to any attack, with Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, warning of a possible confrontation: “this time it will be a regional war.”
14 November 2017
Iran: Earthquake in Kermanshah
DOCUMENT / PDF / 525 KB
On the evening of 12 November, a 7.3 magnitude earthquake occurred in Kermanshah province with widespread damage reported across the province. Sar pol-e Zahab and Qasr-e Shirin are reported hardest hit. Early estimates indicate that over 400 lives have been lost and over 6,600 people were injured. Reports indicate that an estimated 70,000 people are in need of emergency shelter.