As at December 2023, El Niño-related drought had already affected 15 of Guatemala’s 22 provinces. Drought and high temperatures are projected to continue through May 2024. Effects may be particularly severe in Guatemala’s Dry Corridor.

Since 1 November 2023, above-average rainfall has been severely affecting Guatemala, mainly because of a cold front passing through the country and El Niño intensifying the rainy season. This rainy season has extended beyond the typical May–October period and has damaged several roads and bridges.

This report presents the key drivers of migration and highlights the risks faced while in transit in four countries of Central America: El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Although there are commonalities in the four countries, the report highlights and provides some outlook into each country’s specific situation in terms of humanitarian constraints and needs.

An El Niño phenomenon, although weak, has developed since February affecting several Central American countries, in particular Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador and Nicaragua, known as the Dry Corridor. The most vulnerable households are likely to face Crisis (IPC-3) outcomes and are likely to resort to negative coping strategies, including reduced food consumption and sale of productive assets. Needs are likely to include food assistance, livelihood support and WASH.

Since 13 October, several thousand migrants have left Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala to form two large caravans and multiple smaller groups travelling by foot towards the United States border. Protection concerns, as well as, urgent food, water and shelter needs, have been reported.

Fuego Volcano, the most active volcano in Guatemala erupted on 3 June generating a column of ash, lava, and pyroclastic flows up to 10km from the crater. The eruption affected over 1.7 million people in Sacatepéquez, Escuintla, and Chimaltenango departments. On 5 June a new violent descent of pyroclastic lava flow led to new evacuations and casualties. 

On 7 September, an 8.1 magnitude earthquake struck Mexico’s southern Pacific Coast, about 8km southwest of Pijijiapan in Chiapas state. A related 7.6 earthquake occurred in Guatemala the same evening. In Mexico, 90 people were killed and at least 200 injured. In Guatemala, an estimated 4,500 people were affected.

The Zika virus epidemic in Latin America and the Caribbean is most affecting Brazil, with over one million cases estimated. Colombia reports over 18,000 confirmed and 2,000 suspected cases and anticipates over 650,000. El Salvador reports over 6,000 suspected cases. Venezuela reports over 4,500 confirmed cases, however unofficial estimates are thought to be as high as 400,000. 

500,000 people in the Central American “Dry Corridor”, covering El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua, are estimated to be facing severe food insecurity, while around 1.3 million are facing moderate food insecurity. An El Niñorelated dry spell has resulted in significant crop losses during the primera season in all four affected countries for the second consecutive year, severely limiting food reserves in affected areas.