This report is an update to initial reporting on the situation on Lesvos (Displacement in Lesvos 22/09/2020) and provides greater detail regarding the risk of COVID-19 in camps. Between 8 and 10 September, fires broke out in three different spots in Lesvos, resulting in the displacement of more than 12,000 inhabitants.The fire also destroyed a COVID-19 medical facility and interrupted all medical services for the refugees.

On 9 September fires broke out in three different locations inside the Moria Refugee camp, resulting in displacement of all its inhabitants across the island of Lesvos. The Moria camp is one of Europe's largest refugee camps. Although its official capacity is only 2,600 it was estimated to be hosting approximately 13,000 refugees before the fire broke out. 

ACAPS and the Mixed Migration Platform have produced a new set of Middle East–EU migration scenarios, outlining possible developments in migration via Turkey and Greece over the next six months. The report outlines triggers that could drive these scenarios, as well as the impact and humanitarian consequences of each scenario.

As of 16 November, close to 820,000 people have arrived in Europe by sea in 2015. 85% of the arrivals are from the world’s top ten refugee-producing countries. As the sea route to Italy via North Africa is longer and more risky, and as the number of Syrians has increased, more people are travelling through Greece and then through the Balkans to reach northern and western Europe.

Over 800,000 asylum seekers and refugees have made their way towards Europe by land and sea in 2015. As the sea route to Italy via North Africa is longer and more risky, and as the number of Syrians have increased, more people are traveling through Greece and then through the Balkans to reach northern and western Europe. 

In October 2015, ACAPS undertook a scoping study to better understand gaps in information and analysis in the context of the asylum-seeker crisis in Europe. One of the key priorities that emerged from the consultation was the need for scenario building, outlining possible developments and anticipated impact on the transit countries over the next six to nine months. Three workshops in Athens, Belgrade and Geneva, were held to develop and validate these scenarios.