This risk report seeks to inform humanitarian decision-makers and facilitate response planning through an analysis of possible evolution of the crisis dynamics in Colombia over the next six months in 2020 and into early 2021, factors that will likely provoke a change in the situation and humanitarian needs which are likely to arise if the risks materialize.

This report aims to support the humanitarian response in Colombia to understand how government measures mitigate the epidemic impact on vulnerable population groups; what are their factors of vulnerability in relation to the measures; which humanitarian needs are likely to arise in the short to medium term. The primary focus of the analysis is on Colombian internally displaced people, Venezuelan refugees and migrants.

The analysis in this report is based on a review of secondary sources, such as early warnings from the Ombudsman’s Office of Colombia (Defensoría del Pueblo), media reports, databases of Colombian government institutions in charge of monitoring the armed conflict, reports from think tanks, and key informant interviews (KIIs) with humanitarian workers in Chocó.

Following the signing of the peace agreement between the Government and the FARC in 2016, there has been a reshuffling of illegal armed groups such as the ELN and EPL, with an escalation of fighting for the control of land and illicit crop production in areas vacated by FARC. Over 30,000 people were displaced in mass displacements in 2018, double the amount recorded in 2017. 

130mm of rain fell in the city of Mocoa in southwest Colombia on 1 April local time, causing the flooding of the Mocoa, Mulato, and Sangoyaco Rivers, and several mudslides throughout Mocoa. At least 254 people have died, 200 were injured, 200 remain missing, and around 1,200 have been affected by the floods.

The Zika virus epidemic in Latin America and the Caribbean is most affecting Brazil, with over one million cases estimated. Colombia reports over 18,000 confirmed and 2,000 suspected cases and anticipates over 650,000. El Salvador reports over 6,000 suspected cases. Venezuela reports over 4,500 confirmed cases, however unofficial estimates are thought to be as high as 400,000.