On 27 August 2021, the Cauca River in the north of Colombia flooded, causing serious damage to five municipalities in La Mojana subregion. The flooding was a result of atypical rains during August and a rupture in a dam that functioned as a retaining wall for the river, affecting all municipalities of the subregion.

This report aims to provide elements for understanding violence in the Cauca department after the demobilisation of the FARC-EP and the humanitarian consequences of the new dynamics of the conflict.

This report is based on a secondary data review, supplemented by interviews with members of civil society, INGOs, and UN agencies. Although the issue of caminantes is understood to be a regional phenomenon that affects multiple countries, because of the availability of information the focus of this report is on Colombia and Venezuela. 

Reports of violence against civilians in Colombia have increased in 2020. As projected by ACAPS, armed groups and criminal organisations have taken advantage of COVID-19 containment measures to expand their territorial and social control, often by exploiting and inflicting violence on local communities. 

This risk report seeks to inform humanitarian decision-makers and facilitate response planning through an analysis of possible evolution of the crisis dynamics in Colombia over the next six months in 2020 and into early 2021, factors that will likely provoke a change in the situation and humanitarian needs which are likely to arise if the risks materialize.

This report aims to support the humanitarian response in Colombia to understand how government measures mitigate the epidemic impact on vulnerable population groups; what are their factors of vulnerability in relation to the measures; which humanitarian needs are likely to arise in the short to medium term. The primary focus of the analysis is on Colombian internally displaced people, Venezuelan refugees and migrants.

The analysis in this report is based on a review of secondary sources, such as early warnings from the Ombudsman’s Office of Colombia (Defensoría del Pueblo), media reports, databases of Colombian government institutions in charge of monitoring the armed conflict, reports from think tanks, and key informant interviews (KIIs) with humanitarian workers in Chocó.

Following the signing of the peace agreement between the Government and the FARC in 2016, there has been a reshuffling of illegal armed groups such as the ELN and EPL, with an escalation of fighting for the control of land and illicit crop production in areas vacated by FARC. Over 30,000 people were displaced in mass displacements in 2018, double the amount recorded in 2017. 

130mm of rain fell in the city of Mocoa in southwest Colombia on 1 April local time, causing the flooding of the Mocoa, Mulato, and Sangoyaco Rivers, and several mudslides throughout Mocoa. At least 254 people have died, 200 were injured, 200 remain missing, and around 1,200 have been affected by the floods.

The Zika virus epidemic in Latin America and the Caribbean is most affecting Brazil, with over one million cases estimated. Colombia reports over 18,000 confirmed and 2,000 suspected cases and anticipates over 650,000. El Salvador reports over 6,000 suspected cases. Venezuela reports over 4,500 confirmed cases, however unofficial estimates are thought to be as high as 400,000.