The scenarios consider four different yet plausible futures for Sudan until October 2024, including their possible impacts and humanitarian consequences. Each scenario considers the differences in three main variables: conflict, governance, and socioeconomic conditions. Scenarios identify the potential change in people’s ability to meet their needs.

On 15 April 2023, violence broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces. The violence that started in Khartoum quickly spread to other states, including North Kordofan, resulting in deaths, mass displacement, and the breakdown of essential services.

On 15 April 2023, the alliance between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces collapsed into violence. The conflict that began in Khartoum has spread across the country, causing death, injuries, displacement, and destruction. The violence has displaced over five million people. The hostilities have not directly affected White Nile, but its safety and proximity to Khartoum have made it a main pathway for people leaving Sudan, providing a critical access point to South Sudan at Kosti.

While some reports document disruptions to water services or the scarcity of resources for the rapidly increasing population in certain states, few have explored how the armed conflict has modified patterns of WASH service use and interacted with the country’s WASH infrastructure and the workers in charge. This report seeks to address this information gap.

Since 15 April 2023, violence in Sudan between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has created a significant surge of people seeking safety in Northern state to attempt to cross into Egypt.

The 2023 conflict in Sudan has led to the damage and destruction of the banking infrastructure in Khartoum, the epicentre of fighting and where banking operators are mainly based. This has significantly affected cash access across the country, even in areas that currently do not have active conflict.

On 15 April 2023, the alliance between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid  Support Forces (RSF) collapsed into violence over a power struggle. The conflict initially  erupted in Khartoum, the capital city of Sudan, but has spread across the country. The SAF and RSF had been recruiting and training  fighters in Darfur since 2022.

On 15 April 2023, the alliance between the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) collapsed into violence. The conflict that began in Khartoum has spread across the country, causing death, injuries, displacement, and destruction. Since 15 April, 70% of all documented political violence incidents in Sudan have occurred in Khartoum state. 

On 15 April 2023, clashes erupted between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in multiple areas of Sudan. While multiple ceasefires have created temporary lulls in fighting, violence continues. As at 6 June, the conflict had resulted in at least 866 deaths and 6,000 injuries according to the Federal Ministry of Health (FMoH).

Since 15 April 2023, intense fighting has been occurring in the capital Khartoum and other parts of the Sudan. The heavy fighting has resulted in forced displacement into neighbouring countries, including Ethiopia, and will have broader implications for conflict in the region. 

As at 14 May 2023, the conflict that began on 15 April in Sudan had displaced more than 57,000 people to South Sudan. 90% of this number were conflict-displaced South Sudanese returnees. The majority of the displaced are settling in border towns in Upper Nile state. 

As at 1 May 2023, at least 30,000 people were reported to be displaced to Ouaddai, Sila, and Wadi Fira provinces in Chad because of military clashes in Tandulti area in Ag Geneina locality and Foro Baranga town in West Darfur state, Sudan.

The report provides a snapshot of the humanitarian access situation in Sudan following the start of fighting on 15 April 2023, focusing on conflict-affected areas. It also provides some insights into the overall humanitarian access situation in the country since the military takeover in October 2021.

This report provides an update on the impact of conflict on Sudan’s healthcare system using a secondary data review of public sources. Operational constraints and political sensitivities hinder data and information gathering among humanitarian responders, resulting in information gaps and the lack of a holistic understanding of the crisis impact. 

On 15 April 2023, a violent power struggle broke out in Sudan’s capital of Khartoum. As at 18 April, at least 200 people were dead, and 1,800 were injured. The violence has led to the closure of hospitals and movement restrictions ordered by the army across Khartoum.

Since the rainy season started in June, heavy rains have been causing flash floods across Sudan, affecting 16 of the 18 states in the country. As at 5 September, the floods had killed more than 100 people, affected more than 278,500 people across the country, and totally or partially damaged over 58,600 houses. The risk of further flooding remains high.

Since December 2020, there has been a significant increase in resource-based intercommunal violence between Arab and non-Arab tribes in the Darfur region, located in western Sudan. Between January–July 2022, more than 470,000 people were internally displaced in Darfur, with violence cited as the main reason. 

The latest intercommunal violence in Blue Nile state began on 13 July 2022. As at 25 July, the violence had killed at least 90 individuals and injured more than 300. It had also led to the displacement of 31,000 people. 

Possible developments in people’s ability to live safely and meet their basic needs over the next 12 months.

On 15 January, armed clashes broke out in and around Ag Geneina, West Darfur’s state capital. Attacks on three Krinding IDP camps and other areas on the outskirts of Ag Geneina resulted in the displacement of 108,800 people to Ag Geneina town and surrounding villages.