About 150,000 people are facing famine in Nigeria and South Sudan. Another 9 million face Emergency food security outcomes (IPC 4) in Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, and Yemen, and could face Famine (IPC 5), if no assistance is provided between May and August, when the lean season takes hold.

Years of insurgency and counterinsurgency operations have resulted in the displacement of approximately 1.9 million people and created a food and nutrition crisis in Nigeria’s northeast. The worst-affected local government areas of northeast Nigeria are facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food security conditions and Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) levels above emergency threshold.

3,959 cases of meningitis, 181 laboratory confirmed, resulting in 438 deaths have been reported as of 5 April. While 19 states have reported outbreaks, 97% of reported cases are in six states: Katsina, Kebbi, Niger, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara. Meningitis serotype C, or NmC, is responsible for 83% of laboratory confirmed cases and is severely undervaccinated in the affected areas. 

The longstanding violence between herders and farmers in Nigeria’s Benue, Kaduna, and Plateau states has increased in recent years. In 2016, at least 800 people were killed in southern Kaduna and 1,269 in Benue state, where at least 14 of the 23 LGAs were invaded.

Violence by Boko Haram and counterinsurgency activities by the Nigeria Army has left devastation in Nigeria’s northeast. With 2.5 million people in need, Adamawa is the second most affected state in the conflict. An estimated 1,900,000 people are internally displaced across the country in almost 2,000 locations, including 152,000 people in Adamawa. 

Suicide attacks and attempts in northeast Nigeria between September 2016 and January 2017.

The Boko Haram insurgency and the military’s counterinsurgency has resulted in a severe crisis in Nigeria’s northeast. More than 20,000 people have been killed and 4,000 women and girls abducted since the conflict began eight years ago. 1.6 million people remain internally displaced.

The Nigerian government has recently engaged in military operations in areas previously held by Boko Haram (BH). As a result, some parts within ten Local Government Areas (LGAs), namely Bama, Damboa, Dikwa, Gwoza, Konduga, Kukawa,  Magumeri, Monguno, Ngala and Shani, have become more accessible as of mid-December 2016.

Food security, food production, nutrition, and livelihoods have been enormously compromised by the conflict. Displaced populations and host communities in the northeast face particularly severe food insecurity resulting from poor production and loss of livelihoods. A marked increase in the food insecure population has been noted in addition to a loss of livelihoods.   

Possible developments in northeast Nigeria over the next nine months.

Newly accessible areas of Borno and Yobe states and areas with active military operations face severely limited access to food. Levels of malnutrition are critical and populations face a substantially increased risk of mortality. The crude mortality rate (CMR) has surpassed the threshold of 2/10,000/day – used when classifying Famine (IPC Phase 5) – in several areas since June 2016.

Boko Haram (BH) is a Sunni Islamist armed group based in Borno state in northeast Nigeria. ‘Boko Haram’ translates from Hausa to ‘western education is forbidden’. The group was founded in 2002 by an Islamist cleric named Mohammed Yusuf in response to Nigeria’s democratic transition, nationalism and Western influence. The group’s official name is not Boko Haram but Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad, which means “People Committed to the Propagation of the Prophet’s Teachings and Jihad”.

Over 14 million people are affected by conflict in northeast Nigeria and more than 10 million people are in need. A growing number of people are in urgent need of food assistance, with some of the worst affected areas possibly in Famine (IPC Phase 5). Alarming rates of acute malnutrition are emerging in Borno and Yobe and deaths as a result of SAM have been reported.

Borno, Yobe and Adamawa state are most affected by the Boko Haram insurgency. The northeastern states are hosting the majority of IDPs. 1.3 million IDPs are in Adamawa, Borno, Gombe, and Yobe states. The entire resident population of these states (16 million) are considered affected by the Boko Haram insurgency. Humanitarian needs are severe and access is limited, particularly in Borno state.

Newly accessible areas of Borno and Yobe states are revealing extremely high rates of severe acute malnutrition, especially among 275,000 IDPs reported to live in 15 camps in Borno state. Information from recent rapid assessments, although limited, raises the possibility of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in the worst affected and least accessible areas of Borno. The Minister of Health has declared a nutrition emergency in Borno state. 

A suspected outbreak of Lassa viral hemorrhagic fever was announced in Nigeria on 8 January. The Lassa virus is carried by the multimammate rat and can be transmitted to humans through physical contact with soiled objects; eating contaminated food; or person to person transmission.