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20 March 2026
Middle East conflict: ripple effects and scenarios
DOCUMENT / PDF / 3 MB
This report uses descriptive, explanatory, and anticipatory analysis to help decision makers understand the scale of the ripple effects from the war, dividing the impacts into four themes:
- energy and water security
- economy, shipping disruption, and food security
- conflict and social cohesion
- humanitarian needs, gaps, and access.
10 February 2026
Anticipating Possible US Strikes on Iran
On 6 February, US and Iranian negotiators met in Muscat against the backdrop of potential military confrontation. In recent weeks, the US has been positioning more offensive and defensive military assets into the region than during the June 2025 12-Day War, creating conditions for what Trump dubbed a ‘decisive’ attack against Iran, while Tehran and its regional allies have pledged a ‘painful response’ to any attack, with Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, warning of a possible confrontation: “this time it will be a regional war.”
08 March 2024
Egypt: potential impacts of the conflict in Gaza and tensions in the Red Sea
DOCUMENT / PDF / 537 KB
This report aims to provide an overview of the anticipated impacts of the conflict in Gaza and the Red Sea tensions on Egypt’s economy, including analysis of the factors and events with the potential to trigger a deterioration in affected people’s humanitarian situation. It also explains the possible resulting humanitarian conditions for affected Egyptian households, existing refugees, and newly displaced Gazans.