The scenarios consider four different yet plausible futures for Sudan until October 2024, including their possible impacts and humanitarian consequences. Each scenario considers the differences in three main variables: conflict, governance, and socioeconomic conditions. Scenarios identify the potential change in people’s ability to meet their needs.

ACAPS’ Global Risk Analysis outlines a number of key locations where new crises may emerge or where a particular situation may notably deteriorate within the next six months, causing a spike in humanitarian needs.

On 7 October 2023, the Qassam Brigades (the armed wing of Hamas, which governs the Gaza Strip) launched a military operation called Al Aqsa Storm with other armed Palestinian groups against Israel. As a response, the Israeli Government declared war on Palestine on 8 October and retaliated using heavy air strikes, military bombardment, and attacks on military and civilian targets.

On 11 October 2023, a 6.3 magnitude earthquake struck 28km north of Herat city in Herat province, western Afghanistan, days after a 6.3 magnitude earthquake hit 40km west of Herat city on 7 October. Between 7 and 10 October, there were also at least nine aftershocks. The reported number of casualties is likely to increase in the coming days as search-andrescue operations continue.

On 3 October, a major Glacial Lake Outburst Flood occurred from South Lhonak, in Sikkim state in northeastern India, flowing down the Teesta River towards the Teesta III hydroelectric dam in Chungthang (Sikkim). The dam was inundated and collapsed, resulting in the increase in water levels in Teesta River, which resulted in death and destruction downstream.

On 15 April 2023, violence broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces. The violence that started in Khartoum quickly spread to other states, including North Kordofan, resulting in deaths, mass displacement, and the breakdown of essential services.

This report analyses the current analysis ecosystem in the humanitarian context of Myanmar. It highlights the humanitarian sector’s analysis needs and gaps resulting from the reduced operational space and consequent constraints on data collection and data and information sharing. 

This report provides an update on the humanitarian impact of the 19 September military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh, with the majority of people having fled to Armenia, and highlights the expected scope and scale of the crisis. The report also provides a contextual overview and the aggravating factors that could further affect the population.

On 15 April 2023, the alliance between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces collapsed into violence. The conflict that began in Khartoum has spread across the country, causing death, injuries, displacement, and destruction. The violence has displaced over five million people. The hostilities have not directly affected White Nile, but its safety and proximity to Khartoum have made it a main pathway for people leaving Sudan, providing a critical access point to South Sudan at Kosti.

El Niño is anticipated to result in prolonged periods of drought and decreased rainfall in El Salvador, particularly affecting food security. Eastern and central parts of the country are especially vulnerable to reduced precipitation during El Niño events, likely affecting 25 municipalities in La Paz, La Unión, San Miguel, and Usulután states.

This information and analysis ecosystem report looks at the information landscape in Ethiopia, assesses the quality, reliability, and sharing of available humanitarian data; and identifies opportunities to strengthen the information and analysis ecosystem. The report provides a starting point to understanding the information and analysis ecosystem more generally, though topics such as gender and anticipatory analysis warrant additional research.

This report explores the capacity-strengthening needs of the local NGOs (LNGOs) headquartered and registered in Türkiye and the local responders operating in the nongovernment- controlled areas of Northwest Syria (NWS) – Idleb and northern Aleppo – following the February 2023 earthquake response and the July 2023 non-renewal of the UNSC cross-border resolution. The capacity-strengthening needs are categorised based on the three strategic pillars of the Humanitarian Leadership Academy (HLA).

Bangladesh is experiencing its largest and most severe dengue outbreak since the country began compiling data on cases in 2000. As at 16 September 2023, nearly 167,700 confirmed dengue cases were reported, exceeding by over 66,300 the previous highest record of around 101,300 for the entire 2019.

This report looks at the impact of the conflict on the healthcare system and sheds light on the situation for certain population groups with specific needs because of their gender, age, disability, or condition. It is meant to highlight priority needs by population group or condition and complement the humanitarian health information landscape to support the response.

This report provides the current situation in Al Jabal Al Akhdar related to the impact of Storm Daniel district, as well as baseline, background, and contextual information to help inform the humanitarian response.

Necoclí is one of the main transit points for those heading to the Darien jungle through Acandí and Capurgana, generating problems such as overcrowding, a lack of resources, and violence in the municipality. The presence of the Gaitanist Self-Defence Forces of Colombia (AGC) aggravates this situation.

Since 2015, Ecuador has been serving as a transit and destination country for Venezuelan refugees and migrants. As at July 2023, there were at least 502,200 Venezuelan refugees and migrants in Ecuador. Around 70% of this population is concentrated in the western provinces of Guayas, Manabí, and Pichincha. Children and adolescents comprise an estimated 43% of the refugee and migrant communities in the country.

This report provides baseline, background, and context information on Derna district, referring to the situation before Storm Daniel made landfall in Libya on 10 September 2023 and the subsequent collapse of two dams in Derna, to help inform the humanitarian response.

On 10 September 2023, Storm Daniel made landfall in Libya, causing heavy rainfall, flash floods, and strong winds.This report provides an initial overview of the humanitarian situation in Derna district, with an emphasis on Derna city, one of the most affected areas. 

Since the initial quake, a magnitude 4.9 aftershock (19 minutes after the initial quake) and a magnitude 3.9 aftershock (on Sunday, 10 September) have hit the country. The most affected provinces are al-Haouz, Azilal, Chichaoua, Marrakesh, Ouarzazate, and Taroudant. The earthquake particularly affected remote mountainous villages, as boulders led to road closures, making access challenging and slowing down rescue efforts.