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20 March 2026
Middle East conflict: ripple effects and scenarios
DOCUMENT / PDF / 3 MB
This report uses descriptive, explanatory, and anticipatory analysis to help decision makers understand the scale of the ripple effects from the war, dividing the impacts into four themes:
- energy and water security
- economy, shipping disruption, and food security
- conflict and social cohesion
- humanitarian needs, gaps, and access.
10 February 2026
Anticipating Possible US Strikes on Iran
On 6 February, US and Iranian negotiators met in Muscat against the backdrop of potential military confrontation. In recent weeks, the US has been positioning more offensive and defensive military assets into the region than during the June 2025 12-Day War, creating conditions for what Trump dubbed a ‘decisive’ attack against Iran, while Tehran and its regional allies have pledged a ‘painful response’ to any attack, with Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, warning of a possible confrontation: “this time it will be a regional war.”
05 February 2026
West Asia: La Niña and water crisis - anticipated risks in 2026
DOCUMENT / PDF / 1 MB
This report provides an overview of the anticipated humanitarian risks triggered by drought in 2026 across West Asia, aiming to support emergency preparedness and response.
24 August 2016
Jordan: Syrian refugees - political and financial dynamics
DOCUMENT / PDF / 481 KB
Refugees fleeing political turmoil and armed violence in Syria began to arrive in Jordan in 2011. As of 19 August 2016, there are 656,042 registered Syrian refugees, 78.5% of whom are living in urban areas. Most refugees have been in Jordan for years: the largest influx from Syria to Jordan was in 2012 and 2013, with 176,020 and 301,620 refugee arrivals, respectively.
23 January 2014
Syria Needs Analysis Project: Jordan
DOCUMENT / PDF / 2 MB
This paper outlines the social and economic situation in Jordan by explaining the causes of the significant underlying vulnerabilities and by exploring how these issues have been compounded by the crisis in Syria and the subsequent population influx.