Since the publication of the ACAPS Zimbabwe Tropical Cyclone Idai Briefing Note on 19 March, severe flooding continues to affect eastern Zimbabwe. In total, it is estimated that 270,000 people have been affected in nine districts, mainly in Chimanimani (115,000) and Chipinge (122,000) districts, Manicaland province. This marks a significant increase of more than 250,000 people since ACAPS‘ last report, likely due to increased access to previously cut-off areas and improved data. As of 25 March, more than 180 people have been killed, 170 injured and 330 remain missing. There is now confirmation that at least 4,500 people have been displaced. Main priorities remain health assistance, food, and shelter provision.
Tropical Cyclone Idai hit eastern Zimbabwe with heavy rains and strong winds on 15-16 March. Manicaland and Masvingo provinces are mostly impacted, facing massive destructing caused by floods and landslides. An estimated number of 12,500 to 15,000 people have been affected overall, with at least 9,600 people (1,600 households) in the hardest hit districts, Chimanimani and Chipinge (Manicaland province). As of 18 March at least 82 people have died, 200 people are injured, thousands are displaced, and many properties, crops and livestock have been damaged and destroyed. More than 200 people are still missing. Assessments are on going and numbers are likely to increase. Priority needs are shelter, WASH, food, livelihood, and health assistance.
The Global risk analysis outlines 18 contexts where a significant deterioration is expected to occur within the next six to nine months, leading to a spike in humanitarian needs. This report comes as a result of ACAPS daily monitoring and independent analysis of the globe to support evidence-based decision-making in the humanitarian sector.
Considering the diversity and complexity of the crises, combined with the number of contexts included in the report, it has not been possible to cover each crisis in detail. Instead, we have highlighted the broad evolution of the crises to flag potential deteriorations and inform operational, strategic, and policy decision-makers.
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An outbreak of cholera declared on 6 September has killed at least 30 people and infected at least 5,460. The most severely affected areas are the two epicentres of the outbreaks in the suburbs of Glenview and Budiriro in western Harare. The outbreak has spread from Harare to Chitungwiza, and west to Gokwe and Bulawayo. Cholera is reportedly spreading to different areas of the country. Poor WASH and health infrastructure are facilitating the rapid spread of the disease. High WASH needs, including clean drinking water, hygiene promotion and temporary sanitation facilities, have been reported.
Outbreaks of Fall Armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, have been reported in DRC, Zambia, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Botswana, South Africa, Namibia, Swaziland, Ghana and Kenya. Regionally, around 330,000 hectares of staple crops, especially maize, have been affected. The remaining southern African mainland countries remain at high risk. The severity of the impact on regional crop production is yet to be established. The damages caused by the infestation depend on the stage at which the pest attacked the plant. Crops that were infested during the early stages of crop development, in late December, had to be replanted, while those infested later in their growth seem to have recovered without intervention.
Update: The further spread of Fall Armyworm was observed in Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe in March. Damage from existing outbreaks was also sustained in Rwanda, Uganda, and Zambia. While further outbreaks are expected only in northern Tanzania in the coming months, all countries are advised to continue monitoring diligently and to apply appropriate preventative measures. Although the Fall Armyworm season is expected to end in June, long-term impacts are expected for affected countries, and neighbouring countries should also remain diligent.
The Crisis Overview 2016: Humanitarian Trends and Risks for 2017, outlines the countries where needs are greatest, and growing, as we approach the end of 2016.
Based on our weekly Global Emergency Overview (GEO), and four years of data on humanitarian needs across 150 countries, we have identified ten countries where humanitarian needs are likely to be highest in 2017, as well as four that merit attention, as they face a potential spike in needs. We also consider the humanitarian situation in the northern triangle region of Latin America, where the wide-ranging humanitarian impact of pervasive gang violence is chronically underreported.