Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)2.30 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.1.70 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.3.00 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.1.60 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian access constraints.No constraintsExtreme constraints
Zambia: drought in the Southern province
Over 1,172,000 people are expected to experience IPC Phase 3 and 4 between. The IPC projection for October 2018 to March 2019 showed that especially Western and Southern province are hit by drought, with more than 260,000 and 246,000 people (22% and respectively 13% of the total population of the province) facing IPC 3 and above.? The significant rainfall deficit since the end of 2018 has resulted in decreased agricultural production. Consequently, households are sharply depleting food stocks and are increasingly dependent on market purchases, driving up the prices of staple foods such as maize.?
As predictions indicate below-average rainfall for the coming months, the most recent IPC projection (October 2019 to March 2020) estimate that around 2,330,000 people (14.2% of the total population) will face IPC phase 3 and 4, an increase of almost 100%. ?
Food insecurity due to droughts, floods and pests is frequently reported in Zambia but this year results are among the highest in the last five years. Previous drought events, especially in 2015/2016 and 2017/2018, have been increasing people’s vulnerabilities. The country continues to suffer from chronic undernutrition and poverty. ?40% of the population faces chronic malnutrition. ?Reoccurring dry spells are resulting in limited access to clean drinking water for people and animals as boreholes dry out and groundwater levels retreat. ?
INFORM measures Zambia’s risk of humanitarian crisis and disaster for 2019 to be medium at 4.1/10. Vulnerability is of particular concern, at 5.9/10. ?
No significant recent humanitarian developments. This country is being monitored by our analysis team.
Information Gaps and Needs
- Lack of detailed information on severity of needs in affected districts.
- Geographical breakdown of current and future food security estimates are lacking.