Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)0 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.1.60 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.0 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.2.00 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian access constraints.2.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
Ethnic Malay militants have waged an insurgency against the Thai government since the 1940s, fighting for independent rule of Thailand’s southern provinces of Pattani, Yala, Narathiwat, and parts of Songkhla, which have a majority Muslim population. For decades, the conflict was marked by low levels of violence, before reaching a peak between 2004–2015. Since 2004, over 7,000 civilians have been killed and over 13,000 injured.?
An escalation of conflict occurred in 2019, with an increasing government offensive against the insurgency in the lead-up to the March 2019 elections, which saw heightened military engagement in the southern regions and the detention of suspected insurgents. The most powerful insurgent group, Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN), perpetrated multiple attacks against civilians, including the largest attack in the region since 2001. The trajectory of the conflict in terms of peace dialogue and civilian protection is unclear, though in 2020 the BRN committed to greater protection of children in conflict.?
In February 2021, the last round of peace talks was held online between the Thai government and the BRN. Since the talks began in 2015, little progress has been made. Currently, the dialogue revolves around establishing a framework for a formal peace dialogue, determining how to carry out discussions given the COVID-19 context, reducing violence, and providing a participatory approach that includes all parties to the conflict. Because of internal divisions and fragmentation between and within various insurgent groups, prospects for peace are hard to predict.?
No significant recent humanitarian developments. This crisis is being monitored by our analysis team.
Intersectoral: Recurrent militant attacks result in civilian casualties and temporary displacement, and limit movement in the southern provinces. Markets, schools, and hospitals have been targeted by militants, restricting access to these public spaces. There is heavy mine contamination in the southern provinces following decades of conflict. Human rights violations are common, including arbitrary detention and use of force by authorities against suspected insurgents.
Information Gaps and Needs
There is no INFORM Severity score for the conflict in southern Thailand because of information gaps. There is limited data regarding the affected population, humanitarian needs, or the severity of humanitarian conditions.