Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)4.80 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.4.60 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.5.00 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.4.70 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian access constraints.5.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
Syria: Displacement in the Northeast
Syria: Displacement in the northwest
At least 224,000 civilians, including 29,000 children, have died as a result of conflict since the civil war began in 2011. ?An estimated 11.7 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance. ?6.2 million are internally displaced and 6.8 million refugees have left the country, mostly to neighbouring Lebanon, Turkey and Jordan. ?
The humanitarian needs in Syria are severe across all sectors, with health, shelter, and food needs most critical in areas where fighting continues, including governorates in the northwest and northeast of the country. Protection interventions are required countrywide. Access for humanitarians remains extremely problematic, even in areas retaken by the Syrian Arab Army. ?
Since late 2015, the Syrian Arab Army has been slowly regaining territory across the country. With only governorates in the northeast and northwest remaining outside government control, the war is widely seen as entering its final and possibly most violent stages. Turkish, Russian, Iranian, American, and Syrian troops are stationed inside Syria, as well as a range of non-state armed groups ranging from more moderate opposition groups to Salafist Jihadi groups.
Intensified hostilities between government forces and non-state armed groups in the north-western governorate of Idlib have caused the displacement of 700,000 people since beginning of December 2019. This adds to the 400,000 already displaced between May and August. IDPs are moving further north towards cities and IDP camps or crossing into the Aleppo governorate. Civilian casualties have been reported after shelling of camps, schools, and markets. The cold and rains exacerbate humanitarian needs with tents flooded and IDPs exposed to low temperatures while sleeping in precarious shelters or in the open air. Increased fuel prices and a fuel shortage hinder transportation for civilians, but also for aid delivery. Other access difficulties are due to the volatile security situation and muddy roads. Protection, food, shelter and NFI, and health are all areas of concern. Humanitarian organisations are operating further north in the governorate and an emergency allocation for the Syria Cross-border Humanitarian Fund (SCHF) was confirmed.?Hostilities continue despite a ceasefire between Turkey and Russia implemented on 12 January. At least 20 civilians have died between 12 and 15 January.?
16/01/2020: On 10 January the UN Security Council (UNSC) approved resolution 2504 prolonging the delivery of UN humanitarian aid through the border crossings of Bab al Salam and Bab al Hawa between Turkey and north-west Syria just before its final deadline. Following the resolution aid will no longer be delivered through two additional crossings, the Jaber-Naseeb crossing with Jordan and the Al Yaroubia crossing with Iraq. This increases the workload for humanitarian operators within north-east Syria, with the closure of an aid lifeline which had been active since 2014. While in previous UNSC resolutions delivery of cross border aid was authorised for one whole year, this time operations have been allowed for a reduced period of six months. As of November 2019, 4 million Syrians were benefiting from cross-border aid deliveries, 1.3 million in the North East only, through the Al Yaroubia crossing. ?
For more information on the humanitarian impact of the conflict in north-west Syria, please see the relevant paragraph below.
Humanitarian access remains severely constrained in Syria amid ongoing conflict, even in areas retaken by the government. Escalated fighting in opposition-held territory in the northwest since April 2019, and a military operation by Turkish Armed Forces into the SDF-controlled northeast since October 2019 has resulted in the suspension of humanitarian operations. Local humanitarian staff have been displaced and international staff have been evacuated around the frontlines. Health workers and other humanitarian actors continue to be impacted by shelling, airstrikes, and small arms fire. High presence of unexploded ordnance and explosive remnants of war, ongoing insecurity in government-held and SDF-controlled areas, and administrative challenges, including irregular cross border authorizations, hinder humanitarian operations. Access to the 12,700 people in need in the Rukban makeshift settlement at the Jordanian border continues to be restricted.
Read more in the latest ACAPS Humanitarian Access Overview.
Number of violent events and fatalities in Syria in 2019
Source : ACLED - https://www.acleddata.com/data/
Conflict in northwest
Conflict between the Government of Syria (GoS) and armed opposition groups has intensified since the beginning of 2019, and escalated since 28 April in northwest Syria, causing a high number of civilian casualties. ?Waves of barrel bomb attacks and artillery strikes have hit houses, schools, medical facilities, markets and IDP camps in southern Idleb, northern Hama, eastern Lattakia and western Aleppo governorates.
The humanitarian situation in the northwest is deteriorating, with ongoing clashes, airstrikes, and shelling restricting the humanitarian access. Since 1 May 2019, some 400,000 people have been forced to flee their homes, most of whom have sought shelter near the Turkish border in densely populated areas where humanitarian response is overstretched. Humanitarian conditions are dire and are expected to worsen as winter approaches. Over 630,000 people are staying in IDP camps in the northwest. Displaced families living in tents and makeshift shelters are facing severe protection and health concerns as temperatures are dropping and rains are causing flooding. Acute needs include shelter, food, and healthcare. ?
In August 2019, the Syrian regime retook control over Khan Shaykun, a strategic town on the M5 highway that stretches from the capital Damascus to Aleppo city. The advancement represented the first significant territorial gain for the regime since the start of the campaign. ?Indiscriminate attacks by regime and allied forces increased since late October after a period of relative calm since the announcement of a ceasefire on 31 August. ?
The northwestern region was declared a demilitarised zone under a deal between Turkey and Russia in September 2018 which aimed to avert a government assault on the area. The Syrian government has stepped up their attacks in an attempt to regain strategic points. The regime and its allies have claimed they have been targeting extremist groups in the area.
Protection: 13.2 million people, including 4.1 million children, are estimated in need of protection assistance. ?
6.2 million people need acute WASH-assistance. ?
Health: 13.2 million people require health assistance. The conflict has significantly damaged health facilities. Fuel shortages further hamper access to health services. ?
Violence in Daraa governorate
Violence has soared in Daraa governorate in southern Syria amid rising tensions between the local population and Syrian regime forces. Over 2019, assassinations, enforced disappearances, looting, fires, localised clashes, and other security incidents carried out both by regime and opposition forces have wreaked chaos in the region. ?
Conflict in the northeast
On 9 October 2019, Turkey started a long-threatened offensive, named “Operation Peace Spring”, into the Kurdish-controlled northeast of Syria. The operation was launched just days after an announcement from US president Trump that the US would be withdrawing its troops from the Turkish/Syrian border. Turkey’s offensive aims at removing Kurdish forces from the border area and creating a buffer zone of 115km long and between 5 and 30km wide along the border, to which millions of Syrian refugees can be relocated from Turkey. ?
Despite recent ceasefire agreements, sporadic clashes between Turkish-backed armed forces and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)as well as the allied Syrian Arab Army (SAA) have continued in different locations across Hasakeh and Raqqa governorates in northeast Syria as of December 2019. Joint Russian-Turkish patrols started on 1 November 2019, indicating that the terms of the Sochi agreement between Turkey and Russia of 22 October, that stipulated the removal of SDF troops from the planned buffer zone, continue to be implemented. ?
Airstrikes and ground attacks have killed and injured hundreds of civilians. Despite a decrease in fighting since the implementation of the ceasefires, at least 75,000 people remain displaced as of 19 November 2019. The majority of the displaced are residing in host communities across Hasakeh, Raqqa and Aleppo governorates, where towns are overwhelmed by the influx. Some 17,500 IDPs are staying in collective shelters, mostly schools. Infrastructure has been severely damaged. Increased food prices, restricted food supply, and a disrupted planting season as a result of the clashes are likely to further strain the already dire food security situation in the region. The people living in northeast Syria have experienced multiple displacements. Cities where people are likely to flee are heavily contaminated with mines and lack basic services, and IDP camps in the area are already overstretched due to years of conflict. Humanitarian operations are severely hampered by fighting, disrupted supply chains of humanitarian goods, and shifts in territorial control. ?