• Crisis Severity ?
    4.4
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Impact ?
    4.4
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Humanitarian Conditions ?
    4.5
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Complexity ?
    4.4
    0 Very low
    Very high 5
  • Access Constraints ?
    4.0
    No constraints
    Extreme constraints

Key figures

  • 48,000,000 Total population [?]
  • 5,562,000 People displaced [?]
  • 14,300,000 People in Need [?]

Special Reports

28/07/2022

Overview

03/08/2022

Sudan’s complex crisis has left at least 14.3 million Sudanese in need of humanitarian assistance in 2022, up from 13.4 million in 2021. Drivers include political instability following the military takeover on 25 October 2021, a socioeconomic crisis characterised by high inflation rates and currency depreciation, and food insecurity affecting nearly a quarter of the population. Intercommunal clashes and violence in some areas of the country also contribute to the high numbers of internal and cross-border displacements.?

Towards the end of October 2021, the Sudanese military forces took over and removed the civilian components of the transitional government, which had come into power in July 2019 and aimed to transition Sudan into a democracy by 2023. Since the takeover, widespread demonstrations denouncing military rule and violent clashes with security forces have been taking place almost every week, especially in Khartoum and Omdurman cities. These demonstrations have often resulted in injuries, fatalities, and damage to infrastructure. The general insecurity, road blocking, and communication blackouts that come with the demonstrations affect humanitarian access across the country. The military takeover has led to the suspension of international financial aid to the country. It has also aggravated Sudan’s deteriorating economy, contributing to high inflation rates, the depreciation of the Sudanese pound, and shortages in hard currency and foreign reserves. In 2021, Sudan imported more than 80% of wheat from Russia and Ukraine; the Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent disruption to supply chains will likely affect the prices of grains and fuel.?

Estimations for June–September 2022 show that 11.6 million people in Sudan are food insecure – that is, facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse levels of food insecurity. A below-average wheat harvest season (March–April) in 2022, deteriorating economic conditions, and intercommunal clashes resulting in displacement and affecting the agricultural sector drive food insecurity in the country. The war in Ukraine and Sudan’s limited ability to import wheat and compensate for shortages because of the country’s limited foreign currency aggravate the situation. In June, the lack of access to food resulted in deaths among children and elderly people in Darfur.?

Latest Developments

03/11/2022

03/11: Up to 36,000 people were displaced, 60 killed, and 90 injured as a land dispute sparked inter-communal clashes in Al Lagowa, West Kordofan state from 10-18 October. 21,000 people are staying in camps, schools, and with the host community in West and South Kordofan; others reportedly fled to nearby mountainous areas. Drinking water, food, sanitation, shelter, and medical care are needed.?

19/10: At estimated 1,200 people have been displaced, 14 killed, and 24 injured between 13-16 October following a land dispute involving Hausa and other communities in Wad Al Mahi, Blue Nile state. Displaced people are staying in schools and a nearby camp. They need food assistance as markets are closed. Humanitarian access is restricted because of insecurity.?

Humanitarian Access

07/07/2022

Very high constraints

Sudan faced Very High humanitarian access constraints in the past six months, scoring 4/5 in ACAPS Humanitarian Access Index. The humanitarian access situation has been deteriorating because of general insecurity, demonstrations, and communications disruptions since the military takeover in October 2021. In addition, intercommunal clashes in Darfur regions and South Kordofan state has increased, resulting in the temporary suspension of some humanitarian operations and making access to people in need more challenging. 

For more information you can consult our latest Global Humanitarian Access Overview – July 2022.  

Risk

Increased intercommunal clashes in Blue Nile state lead to displacement and more needs for shelter, healthcare, and legal documentation Latest update: 18/10/2022

Probability

Highly unlikely Somewhat likely Highly likely

Impact

Very low Moderate Major

Update from the February 2022 Risk Analysis

20/10/2022

HIGH RISK LEVEL

A reduction in subsidies causing severe electricity and fuel shortages leads to crop failures, livelihood loss, and worsening food insecurity

The risk has partially materialised. Expected increases in fuel prices have affected agriculture, contributing to a price spike for some food items and worsening food security levels?. There has, however, been no escalation of tensions between the Government and farmers in northern Sudan and no disruption to the electrical supply line from Merowe dam. Electricity did not see further cuts in subsidies, meaning no further increases in electricity prices, unlike for fuel. At the beginning of August, transportation costs increased by 40–50% following an increase in petrol and diesel prices in the country?. High fuel prices have affected agricultural activities, such as land preparation, which usually starts in April. The removal of fuel and electricity subsidies in late 2021 also increased the prices of some food items like sorghum and wheat in 2022. Sorghum prices in July were more than 600% higher than in the same month in 2021?.

Socioeconomic Crisis

13/04/2022

Sudan has been facing a socioeconomic crisis caused by the unstable political situation that followed the widespread demonstrations against the politics of former president Omar Hassan al-Bashir in April 2019. The military takeover of the transitional government in October 2021 has further deteriorated the economic situation in Sudan as it resulted in the suspension of international aid, on which Sudan has been depending. Since October 2021, the Sudanese pound has lost about a third of its value, inflation rates have been increasing, there have been shortages of hard currency, and there are no sufficient foreign reserves.?

On 8 March, the government decided for a floating exchange rate instead of fixed, following economic shocks. When the government had devalued the currency previously, in February 2021, the country saw a further increase in prices of food, fuel, electricity, transportation, and medicine. Between January–March 2022, the price of fuel has increased fourfold. As at end of March, fuel prices were 85% higher than October 2021. Wheat prices have also been increasing and affecting the ability of people below the poverty line to buy bread. In January 2018, the Sudanese government cut subsidies on wheat, which caused the price of one loaf of bread to double and drove people to protest. In March 2022, prices of wheat are estimated to have increased by 180% compared to March 2021. Wheat prices continue to rise because of inflation, currency depreciation, and the disruption to the wheat supply chain caused by conflict in Ukraine and sanctions over Russia. Sudan imports more than 85% of its wheat supplies from the two countries (7% from Ukraine and 80% from Russia).?

Key Priorities

06/10/2022

Health: more than ten million people in Sudan need health assistance. The health system is fragile. Many hospitals face shortages of medicine and medical supplies to treat patients while they continue to receive people injured during demonstrations or intercommunal clashes. Outbreaks of diseases such as malaria, hepatitis E, and dengue fever also increase needs for healthcare assistance.?

Education: school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic have affected children’s education. Despite the reopening of schools in early 2021, recurrent clashes continue to disrupt children’s access to education, especially in conflict-affected areas such as Darfur and Kordofan regions. Schools are also often used as temporary shelters for the displaced. The complex crisis in Sudan has resulted in an insufficient number of teachers, schools, and financial resources for education. This will likely disrupt education for about 12 million students in the 2022/23 school year.?

Nutrition: At least three million children under five suffer from malnutrition (Global Acute Malnutrition). A lack of access to food, clean water, and health assistance contribute to increasing nutrition needs.  There is also a need for the treatment of severe and acute malnutrition and preventive interventions. The cost of staple food in September 2022 has increased by 250-300% compared to the same period last year. Increased prices resulted from the impact of the flooding season and continued insecurity, including because of intercommunal clashes, and political and economic instability. Limited access to food risks further aggravating malnutrition levels across Sudan.?

Information Gaps

03/08/2022
  • Lack of regular gender-sensitive needs assessments in all sectors.
  • Unclear information on access to public services in rural and remote areas.
  • Information about refugees, their exact whereabouts, and the severity of their needs is limited.
  • The last population census by the government was conducted in 2008, meaning that information on population numbers heavily relies on estimations or extrapolated data.
  • Lack of updated information on education, including attendance rates and WASH infrastructure in schools.
  • Comprehensive data on areas across Sudan affected by explosive ordnance is lacking, making mapping of risk areas challenging.
  • Lack of information on the access of people with disabilities to basic services, including healthcare.