Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)4.10 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.4.20 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.4.00 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.4.30 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian access constraints.4.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
Sudan: Escalation of violence
Sudan: Economic crisis
After four months of protests, Al-Bashir was ousted in a military coup on 11 April and replaced by a two-year transitional military council (TMC) headed by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. The inability of President Al-Bashir’s government to address Sudan’s severe economic challenges triggered countrywide demonstrations in December.? On 21 August 2019, the governing (TMC) was disbanded, and an 11-member Sovereign Council was formed as collective head of state, consisting of five members selected by the TMC, five civilians selected by the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC) alliance, and one civilian jointly selected by the TMC and FFC. Although the council aims to steer country toward democratic elections over a period of 39 months, mass protests against the precarious political situation have continued frequently throughout Sudan. ? Sudan has faced an economic crisis since the beginning of 2018, resulting in continuously rising prices and shortages of essential items including medicines, fuel, and flour. Nationwide food security and nutrition outcomes have been deteriorating.?
In Darfur, armed groups are waging protracted insurgencies, despite ceasefire agreements. Protection concerns are increasing as the United Nations-African Union Mission in Darfur (UNAMID) withdraws troops leading up to its closure in June 2020, especially in Jebel Marra, where conflict between government forces and the Sudan Liberation Movement – Abdel Wahid al-Nur (SLM-AW) continues. ?Conflict in South Kordofan and Blue Nile states increased significantly after South Sudan gained independence in 2011. The Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) took arms against the inclusion of these states to Sudan without opportunity for democratic elections or consultations. Clashes between the Sudanese government forces and the SPLN-N reduced in 2018, though a high level of insecurity remains.?
Violence, food insecurity, malnutrition and lack of access to basic services have caused large-scale internal displacement of more than 2 million IDPs since 2010. ?Additionally, Sudan hosts around 1 million refugees, including over 810,000 refugees from South Sudan. ?Sudan is a key transit country for migrants from the Horn of Africa heading to Europe. ?
INFORM Sudan's risk of humanitarian crisis and disaster to be very high, at 6.9/10. Being prone to floods and droughts, hazard and exposure is of particular concern, at 7.3/10. ?
Since 28 August 2019, cholera has been on the rise in Sudan, predominately in the states of Blue Nile and Sinnar. The number of confirmed cases as of 19 November is 337, including 11 deaths.?On 7 October, 1.6 million doses of Oral Cholera vaccines were flown into Khartoum in an effort to control the outbreak.? Simulteanously, Sudan is also experiencing its first outbreak of Rift Valley Fever since 2008. As of 11 November, there have been 293 suspected cases of the disease, including 11 associated deaths. The concentration of cases are primarily in Red Sea State and River Nile States.? The combination of outbreaks across Sudan puts pressure on an already debilitated health system, leading to the need for external assistance.
Very high constraints
Humanitarian access deteriorated during the escalation of protests in June 2019, when security forces raided demonstrations, resulting in significant operational constraints. Humanitarian operations remain restricted in conflict areas. Areas in Blue Nile and South Kordofan controlled by the Sudan People ’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) remain hard to access. In Jebel Marra, Darfur, the United Nations-African Union Mission in Darfur (UNAMID) personnel were sporadically denied access to conflict areas due to insecurity. Humanitarian travel policies were eased in 2016, but administrative procedures still present obstacles. Mines, explosive remnants and poor roads hamper assistance. In August 2019 heavy rains and flooding damaged infrastructure further, hindering the delivery of aid. The economic crisis and countrywide lack of fuel and hard currency hamper delivery and access to aid.
Read more in the latest ACAPS Humanitarian Access Overview.
Information Gaps and Needs
- Lack of regular gender-sensitive needs assessments in all sectors.
- Lack of information about the security situation in conflict-affected areas.
- Access to public services often remains unclear in rural and remote areas.
- Information about refugees, their whereabouts and the severity of their needs remain limited.
Food security: Around 5.8 million people are experiencing Crisis phase or worse (IPC 3 or higher) levels of food insecurity across the country?. Broad instability, leading to increased food prices, is expected to continue to heighten levels of food insecurity across the country into January 2020?
Health: Outbreaks, especially waterborne diseases, are straining limited health services. Severe medicine shortages are reported countrywide. ? Health and hygiene promotion is needed to prevent the spread of diseases in many parts of the country. Some 5.2 million people are in need of healthcare. ?
Protection: Approximately 3.9 million people are in need of protection. Protests increase protection concerns. Civilians across Darfur, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile are at high risk due to continuous high insecurity levels.?