671 cholera cases have been reported in Awerial county, Lakes, since June 2016, of which at least 117 are new cases since 6 March. Most new cases have been reported in Mingkaman IDP camp. The case fatality rate (CFR) is 1.49% - or ten deaths. A lack of WASH facilities has been reported, further spreading the outbreak. The upcoming rainy season, from May/June onwards, will also likely further deteriorate the WASH situation and result in an increased number of cholera cases. Neighbouring Yirol East county has also experienced an increase of cholera cases, as reported below. Movement of population between the two counties may trigger a wider spread of the outbreak.
Famine was declared in Unity state in February 2017 after months of a deteriorating food security situation across South Sudan. An estimated 100,000 people are facing Famine (IPC Phase 5) food security outcomes in Unity state, and 4.9 million people are currently food insecure (IPC Phases 3 to 5) across South Sudan – an increase of 1.5 million since the beginning of 2016. The north of the country – where conflict was initially concentrated – has been the most affected by the severe food insecurity situation, but the situation in the south has rapidly deteriorated since fighting erupted in Juba in mid-2016, and spread to the Equatorias.
Following the escalation of conflict in Juba on 7-11 July the situation across South Sudan has remained tense and clashes have been reported across the country. Immediately after the events in Juba a notable increase in violence was reported in Magwi and Torit counties in Eastern Equatoria. Clashes are likely ongoing. People are fleeing the area in anticipation of more heavy fighting. It is expected that the ceasefire in place since 11 July will not hold and violence will continue to spread. Between 7-27 July more than 37,500 people fled to Uganda, at a rate of 2,000 – 4,000 people per day. If clashes are ongoing it is also likely that thousands of people are currently internally displaced in Eastern Equatoria.
As of 16 July, an estimated 12,800 people remain displaced after fighting erupted in Juba over 7–11 July. They are at UN House (6,838), UNMISS Tongping (3,300), Don Bosco Gumbo (1,800), Rajaf village (500), St Joseph Parish Church (100), SSRC Compound (109), and San Francis Pitia school (150): see map page 6 (CCCM 16/07/2016).. Humanitarian agencies currently have access, but this is not stable as the ceasefire is fragile and the situation remains tense. Main needs include water, food, health, and protection.
A disagreement at a checkpoint between soldiers of the Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) and Sudan People’s Liberation Army in Opposition (SPLA-IO) prompted the fighting across Juba. An estimated 36,000–42,000 people were initially displaced.
On 22 October, IPC released a report stating that 30,000 people are estimated to be experiencing Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) food security outcomes in Unity state’s Leer, Guit, Koch and Mayendit counties. The people who fled to the bush during the intensification of violence between April–June are most affected. 3.9 million people are estimated to be experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3), Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) food security outcomes across South Sudan. Jonglei, Upper Nile, and Unity states are the most affected.
Two major crises are ongoing in South Sudan: armed conflict and severe food insecurity.
Fighting between government and opposition forces as well as intercommunal violence increased in mid-February in areas of Greater Upper Nile. Violence has mostly been concentrated around Malakal (Upper Nile), Pibor (Jonglei) and Leer (Unity). Greater Upper Nile hosts nearly 1.4 million IDPs, comprising 90% of the total IDP population of South Sudan. Fighting has also spread to Wau in Western Bahr el Ghazal where 8,000 displaced people are yet to receive assistance. In Western Equatoria, fighting has been ongoing since late 2015, where up to 80,000 people have been newly displaced.
Food insecurity has reached unprecedented levels: 2.8 million people are severely food insecure. Areas most affected include conflict-affected areas of Greater Upper Nile, particularly in central and southern Unity state where 40,000 people are close to Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Food insecurity has also worsened in regions that have previously been considered stable, including in Greater Equatoria and Northern Bahr El Ghazal.
About 150,000 people are facing Famine in Nigeria and South Sudan. Another 9 million face Emergency food security outcomes (IPC 4) in Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, and Yemen, and could face Famine (IPC 5), if no assistance is provided between May and August, when the lean season takes hold.
In all four countries, conflict is resulting in a high level of displacement and limited humanitarian access. Insecurity is preventing food production and driving prices up. All four countries are experiencing economic problems: falling revenue, currency depreciation, and inflation. Somalia is particularly hard hit by drought. The situation is likely to deteriorate with the lean season. Longstanding vulnerabilities, such as poverty and chronic malnutrition, are also contributing to the crisis. Households have exhausted their coping mechanisms.
The Crisis Overview 2016: Humanitarian Trends and Risks for 2017, outlines the countries where needs are greatest, and growing, as we approach the end of 2016.
Based on our weekly Global Emergency Overview (GEO), and four years of data on humanitarian needs across 150 countries, we have identified ten countries where humanitarian needs are likely to be highest in 2017, as well as four that merit attention, as they face a potential spike in needs. We also consider the humanitarian situation in the northern triangle region of Latin America, where the wide-ranging humanitarian impact of pervasive gang violence is chronically underreported.
The Crisis Overview 2015: Humanitarian Trends and Risks for 2016, outlines the countries considered to be in greatest humanitarian need as we approach the end of 2015.
Based on our weekly Global Emergency Overview (GEO), and three years of data on humanitarian needs across 150 countries, we have identified eleven countries where humanitarian needs are likely to be highest in 2016, as well as seven that merit attention, as they face a potential spike in needs. A final section considers the potential impact of the current El Niño event across a number of regions.