Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)4.00 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.4.20 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.4.00 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.3.80 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian access constraints.4.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
South Sudan: Analysis Ecosystem
Five years of civil war have led to widespread human rights violations large-scale internal displacement and refugee outflow to Sudan and Uganda, as well as largely deteriorated food security. Clashes continue despite a peace agreement in 2018, causing further displacements. Intercommunal violence is widespread, with cattle raids a common source of tension, particularly between agro-pastoralist communities. Over 3.6 million people are estimated to be displaced, including 1.4 million IDPs and 2.2 million South Sudanese refugees. In addition, South Sudan host nearly 300,000 refugees from Sudan, DRC, Ethiopia and CAR.?
More than 4.45 million Sudanese are expected to be facing acute food insecurity until December 2019, with 3,670,000 in Crisis phase (IPC 3) and 875,000 in Emergency phase (IPC 4). Critical malnutrition levels are reported in 58 counties.? The conflict and displacement have led to disruptions of food production, livelihoods, and humanitarian assistance, as well as deterioration of the economy. ?The main rainy season from June-September has a significant impact on road access. Attacks and ambushes on humanitarian convoys severely hamper the delivery of assistance and access to populations in need. ?
INFORM measures South Sudan's risk of humanitarian crisis and disaster for 2019 to be very high, at 8.9/10, down from 9/10 in 2018. South Sudan's vulnerability is measured at 9.2/10.?
An estimated 6 million people are likely to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food security outcomes through September 2020. This is an increase from December 2019 projections, which anticipated 5.5 million in IPC Phases 3 and 4. More areas across the country are likely to move into Emergency as the lean season progresses, exhausting household stocks and pushing up food prices. Over May-July 2020, 33 counties will likely be in Emergency, an increase from 22 in the previous reporting period (February-April). Communities with high numbers of returnees and IDPs are particularly vulnerable, given that food sources and market supplies are already scarce. Additionally, 20,000 people in Akobo and Duk counties, Jonglei state, are at risk of Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). These areas were affected by flooding in 2019, resulting in extreme crop and livestock loss and destruction of assets.?
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Very high constraints
Although hostilities have decreased overall since last year’s signing of the Peace Agreement, access constraints persist, including widespread insecurity and bureaucratic impediments. Violence prevents access for relief workers and civilians alike. Harassment and looting of relief material and cash are common. Civilian authorities and security forces continue to interfere with and impose bureaucratic restrictions on NGOs. NGOs have reported incidents of intimidation and harassment perpetrated by the Sudan People’s Liberation Army-in Opposition (SPLA-IO), who have demanded NGOs seek permission before undertaking work in opposition held areas. Humanitarian imports have been disrupted since last December, following a presidential decree on custom exemptions. Recent seasonal flooding has damaged roads and caused displacement, further hindering access.
Read more in the latest ACAPS Humanitarian Access Overview.