Tropical Cyclone Sagar with winds between 110 -115 km/h formed in the Gulf of Aden between Yemen and Somalia on 19 May. It made landfall on the northwest coast of Somaliland as a Tropical Storm with 56 km/h winds, resulting in a year’s worth of heavy rains and flooding. The storm caused extensive destruction, including loss of livestock and crops, destruction of homes and critical infrastructure, and mass displacement. Damage to livelihoods, especially the death of livestock, the key source of income and sustenance for a majority of the pastoral popualtions residing in this region, is likely to aggravate existing food insecurity. Current outbreaks of AWD/Cholera also pose a health risk to affected populations. There is urgent need for WASH, shelter and NFIs, food and health assistance.
Heavy rains and flooding have continued to compound an already fragile humanitarian situation in the southern and central parts of Somalia, worsening conditions for communities who recently endured a long period of drought. The floods have resulted in the destruction of homes, critical infrastructure, latrines, and the loss of livestock and crops. There is need for shelter and NFIs, as well as WASH assistance.
The 2018 Deyr rainy season (October-December) was poor, with parts of Somaliland receiving only 25-50% of average rainfall. Some regions have experienced drought for several seasons. Sanaag and Sool are among the regions worst affected by poor rains, with large moisture deficits and drought conditions. The food security situation is worsening in multiple regions. Over half the total population are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or higher levels of food insecurity in the following regions: Awdal, 368,000 people (55% of its population); Woqooyi Galbeed, 686,000 (55%); Togdheer, 412,000 (57%); Sanaag, 362,000 (67%); and Sool, 233,000 (71%). Areas of concern include Northern Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed, which are experiencing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) conditions. GAM rates of 10-14.9% are present in Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed and Togdheer. GAM rates over 15% are present in Sanaag and Sool. Populations classified as Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse require interventions aimed at reducing food consumption gaps, eradicating acute malnutrition, saving lives, and protecting and saving livelihoods in order to prevent the deterioration of the humanitarian situation.
On 19 May, Tropical Cyclone Sagar made landfall in North-western Somaliland bearing winds in excess of 120 km/h and an entire year’s worth of rain (200-300mm) affecting approximately 700,000 people and widespread destruction of property, infrastructure and the loss of livestock. The cyclone led to flooding that impacted populations previously devastated by droughts and that had not yet recovered, further worsening existing food insecurity. Urgent needs include food, shelter, WASH, and health.
Since the publication of ACAPS Somalia Floods Briefing Note on 3 May 18, significant rainfall has continued in southern and central Somalia. The Juba and Shabelle rivers have burst their banks in several locations, leading to rising flood waters in riverine areas. New incidents of flash flooding have also been reported, notably in Muldug region. In total over 700,000 people have been affected by flooding, including over 228,000 people who have been displaced since mid April.
Increased rainfall since the beginning of April has resulted in a sharp rise in the Shabelle and Juba rivers, leading to severe flooding in southern and central Somalia. Almost 700,000 people have been affected by flooding in riverine and flood-prone areas, including over 214,200 people who have been displaced. Beledweyne district (Hiraan region) has been particularly affected, with 150,000 people displaced in Beledweyne town. Middle and Lower Shabelle, Bay, Jubaland, Galgaduud, and Banaadir regions have also been affected. In Bay, Banaadir, and Galgaduud regions flash flooding has affected IDP settlements, worsening the already vulnerable conditions of IDPs. Urgent needs include WASH, health, shelter, and food. There are concerns that the severe flooding will trigger a cholera outbreak.
Severe drought conditions are rapidly deteriorating food security, nutrition, and health levels across Somalia. A pre-famine warning was declared in January, and there is currently a larger population at risk than in the 2011 famine. Below average gu (April-June) rainfall is predicted in most of the country, with famine conditions likely in localised areas if humanitarian assistance cannot reach all populations in need. Due to continued insecurity, this scenario is a distinct possibility.
Somalia is currently experiencing a drought that started in 2015. The whole country is affected, with northeastern areas of Puntland and Somaliland the worst affected. Humanitarian conditions in the southcentral areas of Bay, Bakool, and Gedo have deteriorated rapidly since November, with poor rainfall affecting crops and livestock. Poor and rural households are atypically market dependent heading into the Jilaal lean season and many require humanitarian assistance to meet basic needs.
More than 173,500 refugees and migrants have reached Italy so far in 2016, around 29,000 more than in the same period last year. While the vast majority still use Libya as the departure point to Europe, more are using Egypt and Algeria. The nationality of arrivals is evolving, with fewer Eritreans and more Egyptians.
Protection is a primary concern. The estimated number of deaths on the Central Mediterranean route has grown to over 4,200 people this year, compared to less than 2,900 at the same point in 2015. Many people die on the journey over land to north Africa, but this number is not known. Migrants and refugees also face detention, sexual exploitation, and forced labour. The number of unaccompanied minors arriving in Italy is growing.
On 7 October, armed violence broke out between forces from Galmudug and Puntland, in Gaalkacyo, the capital of the north-central Mudug region, leaving 11 people killed and dozens injured. As of 13 October, an estimated 50,000 – 70,000 people have been displaced, at least 60% of whom are IDPs facing secondary displacement. The violence erupted in the outskirts of Gaalkacyo at a site where the Puntland government is building a livestock market. A ceasefire was initially agreed on 9 October, but failed to hold. A new ceasefire was agreed on 19 October.
Increased rainfall since the beginning of May has led to a sharp rise in the Shabelle River and flooding. Heavy rainfall, river breakages, and flash floods have displaced 1,800 people and affected 16,500 in Beledweyne district, in Hiraan region in south-central Somalia.
The objective of ACAPS risk analysis is to enable humanitarian decision makers to understand potential future changes that would likely have humanitarian consequences. By exposing the more probable developments and understanding their impact, they can be included in planning and preparedness which should improve response.
At ACAPS, risk analysis enables us to ensure our monitoring of countries and crises is forward-looking and our consequent analysis more informed; gain advance warning about countries and crises on which we ought to report in more depth; and respond to specific requests for risk reports. All of which aim to inform the ACAPS audience, and thus the humanitarian community, of likely future events.
This report compares current humanitarian crises based on their level of humanitarian access. Affected populations in more than 40 countries are not getting proper humanitarian assistance due to access constraints. Out of 44 countries included in the report, nearly half of them are currently facing critical humanitarian access constraints, with four countries (Eritrea, Syria, Venezuela, and Yemen) being considered as inaccessible. Moderate humanitarian access constraints are an issue in eight countries, and 15 face low humanitarian access constraints.
Food security remains a major humanitarian concern in 2018 in multiple contexts. ACAPS highlights in this report five of the worst affected countries, where large populations are food insecure, and where households and areas are either already in Catastrophe or Famine levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 5), or are at risk of deteriorating into this situation.
Humanitarian Overview 2018 examines major humanitarian crises worldwide to identify likely developments and corresponding needs. The report focuses on countries where the crisis trend indicates a deterioration in 2018 and a corresponding increase in need. It also includes countries where crisis is not predicted to worsen, but is likely to remain severe: Ethiopia, Iraq, Nigeria, Palestine, Sudan, and Syria. Across these countries, food security, displacement, health, and protection are expected
to be the most pressing humanitarian needs in 2018.
About 150,000 people are facing Famine in Nigeria and South Sudan. Another 9 million face Emergency food security outcomes (IPC 4) in Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, and Yemen, and could face Famine (IPC 5), if no assistance is provided between May and August, when the lean season takes hold.
In all four countries, conflict is resulting in a high level of displacement and limited humanitarian access. Insecurity is preventing food production and driving prices up. All four countries are experiencing economic problems: falling revenue, currency depreciation, and inflation. Somalia is particularly hard hit by drought. The situation is likely to deteriorate with the lean season. Longstanding vulnerabilities, such as poverty and chronic malnutrition, are also contributing to the crisis. Households have exhausted their coping mechanisms.
The Crisis Overview 2016: Humanitarian Trends and Risks for 2017, outlines the countries where needs are greatest, and growing, as we approach the end of 2016.
Based on our weekly Global Emergency Overview (GEO), and four years of data on humanitarian needs across 150 countries, we have identified ten countries where humanitarian needs are likely to be highest in 2017, as well as four that merit attention, as they face a potential spike in needs. We also consider the humanitarian situation in the northern triangle region of Latin America, where the wide-ranging humanitarian impact of pervasive gang violence is chronically underreported.
The Crisis Overview 2015: Humanitarian Trends and Risks for 2016, outlines the countries considered to be in greatest humanitarian need as we approach the end of 2015.
Based on our weekly Global Emergency Overview (GEO), and three years of data on humanitarian needs across 150 countries, we have identified eleven countries where humanitarian needs are likely to be highest in 2016, as well as seven that merit attention, as they face a potential spike in needs. A final section considers the potential impact of the current El Niño event across a number of regions.