Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)4.50 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.4.40 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.4.50 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.4.40 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian access constraints.4.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
Somalia: Gu season floods
Outbreaks in East Africa: Desert Locusts and COVID-19
More than 2 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance in Somalia. ?The country also has a high number of IDPs and refugees who have left the country, with more than 3.6 million who have been displaced by conflict, insecurity, forced evictions, droughts, and floods.? Clan disputes, protests, the weakness of the national forces, the gradual withdrawal of the African Union Mission in Somalia, Islamic State and continuing Al Shabaab attacks cause insecurity and instability across Somalia.
The insecurity, along with displacement and limited WASH interventions, has complicated the health crisis. Essential primary healthcare is largely unavailable. Vulnerable groups include female-headed households, children, the elderly, people with disabilities and marginalised communities. 2.6 million people are estimated in need of protection.?There are around 34,000 refugees and asylum-seekers registered in Somalia, mainly from Ethiopia.?
Food security and nutrition are deteriorating, particularly in northern and central Somalia. Rainfall levels through mid-April are expected to be the lowest on record since 1981 and the deficit is forecast to continue into May. The water shortage is already resulting in increased commodity prices, deterioration of livestock and agropastoral conditions, and internal displacement of people. As a result of the deteriorating humanitarian crisis, the number of people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) levels of food insecurity is now projected to reach approximately 2.2 million by July.?An estimated 903,000 children under five years are likely to face acute malnutrition in 2019, including 138,200 with severe acute malnutrition (SAM).?
INFORM measures Somalia's risk of humanitarian crisis and disaster to be very high, at 9.1/10.?
Heavy rain has affected most of Somalia since 20 April, as the 2020 Gu (April-June) seasonal rains continue to intensify. As of 29 April, an estimated 83,000 people have been displaced and 60,500 people have been affected nationwide. Most affected regions are South West, Jubaland, Banaadir, Puntland, and Somaliland. Flash floods were also reported in Bay and Bakool regions, with some IDP settlements affected in Baidoa town. There is a high risk of flooding along the Shabelle and the Juba rivers through early May; riverine flooding has already occurred along the Juba River. Higher than normal precipitation could create ideal conditions for the development of a third generation of desert locust infestation in the country.?
For more information on the desert locust outbreak in East Africa, please see the relevant paragraph below.
ACAPS' team is daily monitoring the impact of COVID-19. Find more information related to the outbreak here.
Very high constraints
Humanitarian operations in Somalia consistently face high constraints amid increased levels of insecurity, due to intercommunal violence, military operations, and the presence of al-Shabaab. Conflict and climate-related events cause displacement, complicating the ability of people in need to access assistance. Humanitarian response is compromised by logistical constraints, presence of improvised explosive devices, and violent incidents. Although the control of al-Shabaab is predominantly concentrated in rural areas, attacks on public infrastructure in cities remain a threat. Some areas of al-Shabaab control are completely inaccessible for humanitarians, particularly in the already hard-to-reach rural areas of the south-central parts of the country, where needs are high. Ongoing disputes in the northern states have further contributed to an insecure operational environment.
Read more in the latest ACAPS Humanitarian Access Overview.
Source : ACLED - https://www.acleddata.com/data/
Food security: Food security is deteriorating, particularly in northern and central Somalia, where dry conditions persist. Despite an above-average rainfall in October-December 2019 resulting in above-average cereal crop and livestock production, 2.1 million people are estimated to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) between April and June 2020. New locusts swarms are developing and building up at the onset of the Gu planting season, and risk destroying farmers’ newly planted crops.?
WASH: Infrastructure requires maintenance, particularly in displacement settlements and areas affected by drought.?
Information Gaps and Needs
- There are significant information gaps about the number of people in need and the severity of their needs. People in need and severity is currently based upon IPC phases (including updated figures as a result of the ongoing food insecurity).
- Limited up to date information on injuries as a result of conflict in the country.
Desert Locust Outbreak
The Horn of Africa is suffering from the worst desert locust infestation in decades. Since July 2019, the worst affected countries are Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Uganda and Tanzania. As of February 2020, an estimated 140,000 hectares of crops have been infested in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia, and the situation is worsening.?
Widespread rainfall in late March allowed new swarms to mature and lay eggs, resulting in a second wave of locusts in June and July, which coincides with the start of harvest season. Projections indicate the second wave of locusts could be 20 times larger than previous bands. In Kenya, experts are warning that 100% of summer crops could be destroyed, and large swarms continue to move from Uganda into South Sudan. In Somalia, the infestation is the worst in 25 years as locust breeding continues in the northeast. In Ethiopia, the infestation has led to the loss of staple cereals, including sorghum and maize, reduced pastureland for cattle, and increased animal deaths due to unavailable fodder.?
The ability of desert locusts to form large swarms and consume vast quantities of crops pose severe risks to food security and livelihoods in the affected countries, where more than 20.2 million people already face IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or higher levels of food insecurity.?