Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)4.40 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.4.80 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.4.40 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.4.20 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian access constraints.4.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
Humanitarian Access Overview
Somalia: Food security
There are 7.8 million people in need of humanitarian assistance in Somalia. More than 3.8 million of them have been displaced (internally or across the borders) by conflict, insecurity, forced evictions, drought, and floods.?The Somali population has pre-existing vulnerabilities related to high poverty rates and is experiencing the compounded effects of long-term conflict and recurrent natural disasters.?
Clan disputes, political tensions, national and foreign military campaigns against Al Shabaab, and continuing Al Shabaab attacks targeting civilians cause insecurity and instability across the country. Al Shabaab controls parts of southern Somalia, particularly rural areas. National and foreign security forces have also carried out human rights abuses against civilians, such as killings and arbitrary arrests.?
Somalia is highly vulnerable to natural hazards, such as drought and floods. The federal Government of Somalia declared a drought in April 2021, after a below-average Deyr rainy season (October–December 2020). As at June 2022, the drought has progressively worsened after four consecutive below-average rainy seasons. More than 80% of the country is facing severe to extreme drought conditions. The severity of the current drought is similar to droughts from 2010–2011 and 2016–2017.?The current drought has affected 7.8 million people throughout the country and resulted in the displacement of more than 1,000,000 people. Bay region is projected to face famine for the period October–December 2022.?
Poverty in Somalia is caused by the fractured state of the Government and limited access to livelihood opportunities and basic services. It is particularly widespread among IDPs in settlements and people residing in rural areas.?
INFORM measures Somalia's risk of humanitarian crisis and disaster to be very high, at 8.7/10.?
14/09: 925,000 people in Bay region are projected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and worse food insecurity levels between October and December 2022, with famine projected for rural populations in Baidoa and Burhakaba districts, and for IDPs in Baidoa town. 215,000 children aged under five are estimated to face GAM (Global Acute Malnutrition) between August 2022 and July 2023.?
very high constraints
Somalia faced Very High humanitarian access constraints in the past six months, scoring 4/5 in ACAPS Humanitarian Access Index. The humanitarian access situation remained stable.
For more information you can consult our latest Global Humanitarian Access Overview – July 2022.
Analysis of the famine situation in Somalia
How drought and conflict impact the food security situation
More than 7 million people in Somalia are projected to face acute food insecurity between June and September 2022, with areas like the Bay region facing the risk of famine. Various factors, including recurrent droughts and conflict cause food insecurity in the country.
Our team explores in a new audiovisual format historical trends of food security and institutional humanitarian aid funding in Somalia, covering the period from January 2010 to July 2022. Watch the analysis here.
Update from the October 2021 Risk Analysis
LOW RISK LEVEL
Conflict in Mogadishu between pro-government and proopposition military forces and increased Al-Shabaab attacks result in displacement and humanitarian access constraints
In December 2021, there was a renewed political dispute between the president and prime minister, with both blaming each other for stalled elections. President Mohamed Farmaajo attempted to suspend Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble, leading to the mobilisation of security forces in Mogadishu in support of the prime minister. Opposition leaders supported the prime minister and called for the resignation of President Farmaajo. Mediation by local leaders and the international community helped deescalate tensions and prevent armed conflict in Mogadishu.? Somalia’s leaders set 15 March 2022 as the new deadline for the conclusion of parliamentary elections. By 13 March, a few seats remained to reach the 275 seats in the Lower House. There are accusations against the president and his allies of interference in the electoral process.
Some candidates linked to the National Intelligence and Security Agency were elected.?
Al-Shabaab has attempted to disrupt the electoral process through targeted attacks. Some attacks in Mogadishu targeted high-profile figures, such as Somalia’s government spokesperson and election delegates. Al-Shabaab also attacked Barawe town (Southwest state) on the same day elections were scheduled to take place.?
Food security: Food security is deteriorating throughout Somalia, and drought conditions are expected to persist in 2022. 6.7 million people are estimated to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) conditions between October-December 2022. Food insecurity worsened by droughts has resulted in 55% of children under five suffering from chronic malnutrition. The key drivers of food insecurity include drought, conflict, and high food prices.?
Health: At least 6.5 million people in Somalia require lifesaving essential healthcare and nutrition services. Excess mortality and increased morbidity continue to be driven by malnutrition, disease outbreaks (COVID-19, cholera, measles, malaria), and conflict. There is limited access to healthcare, with only 19% of districts in Somalia having adequate healthcare facilities. Secondary healthcare facilities, which at times are needed to respond to complicated medical cases, are all located in urban centres.?
Shelter/NFIs: Shelter and NFI needs are high, especially for IDPs, refugee returnees, refugees, and asylum seekers. Many IDP households decide to live in informal settings because of overcrowding in official camps. Makeshift shelters, however, do not provide adequate privacy nor protection against bad weather conditions. These shelters are often set up on private land, putting IDPs at risk of eviction. Priority NFI needs include blankets, sleeping mats, mosquito nets, solar lamps, and kitchen utensils.?
Education: 2.4 million school-aged children have been affected by drought. 1.7 million children have dropped out of school, while 720,000 are at risk of dropping out. 250 schools countrywide have been closed because challenges such as water shortages. Drought-affected children face protection risks such as early marriage, abuse, child neglect, and child labour.?