Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)4.00 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.4.40 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.3.50 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.4.70 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian constraints.5.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
Somalia: Drought in Somaliland
Over 4.2 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance in Somalia, including 2.6 million displaced by conflict, insecurity, forced evictions, droughts, and floods.?Clan disputes, protests, the weakness of the national forces, the gradual withdrawal of the African Union Mission in Somalia, Islamic State and continuing Al Shabaab attacks cause insecurity and instability across Somalia.
The insecurity, along with displacement and limited WASH interventions, has complicated the health crisis. Essential primary healthcare is largely unavailable. Around 3 million people are in need of health assistance and 2.9 million in need of WASH assistance. Vulnerable groups include female-headed households, children, the elderly, people with disabilities and marginalised communities. 2.6 million people are estimated in need of protection.?As of March 2019, there were 33,576 refugees and asylum-seekers registered in Somalia, mainly from Ethiopia.?
Food security and nutrition are deteriorating, particularly in northern and central Somalia. Rainfall levels through mid-April are expected to be the lowest on record since 1981 and the deficit is forecast to continue into May. The water shortage is already resulting in increased commodity prices, deterioration of livestock and agropastoral conditions, and internal displacement of people. Approximately 1.7 million people are projected in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) levels of food insecurity between April and June.?An estimated 903,000 children under five years are likely to face acute malnutrition in 2019, including 138,200 with severe acute malnutrition (SAM).?
INFORM measures Somalia's risk of humanitarian crisis and disaster to be very high, at 9.1/10.?
No recent significant humanitarian developments. This country is being monitored by our analysis team.
Access has deteriorated in Somalia since August 2018. Increased conflict, insecurity, and restrictions imposed by armed groups hamper access. Demands for arbitrary taxation, interference in supply and procurement as well as staff recruitment procedures continue. Bureaucratic impediments by local and state authorities impact the ability of humanitarian actors to reach people in need. Generally, access in the north is better than in south and central Somalia, where unauthorised roadblocks and checkpoints and extortion restrict the delivery of assistance and nearly 2 million people are living in hard-to-reach, conflict-affected areas. Some areas controlled by Al Shabaab are inaccessible for humanitarian actors. Humanitarian operations are further disrupted by seizure of goods and attacks against aid workers. This situation has worsened with the withdrawal of AMISOM. Security forces have demolished informal settlements, including humanitarian infrastructure, displacing people without warning or providing alternative shelter.?
Download the full Humanitarian Access Overview
Recurrent droughts have left people with unmet humanitarian needs, compounded by the armed conflict. Across much of Somalia, the 2018 Deyr rainy season (October-December) was below average, and the Jilaal dry season (January-March) has been harsher than average. Dry weather conditions and relatively high temperatures prevail and little rainfall is forecast in the coming weeks.?Pasture and water availability are already deteriorating, particularly in the northern and central regions.?139,000 people countrywide are currently facing Emergency (IPC-4) levels of food insecurity.?
The situation is expected to deteriorate until June, especially in northern and central pastoral livelihood zones. Should the Gu rainy season (April-June) perform poorly it will be more difficult for the food security situation to recover and further deterioration will be likely through late 2019.?In terms of nutrition, 903,100 children under five are likely to be acutely malnourished (GAM) including 138,200 severely (SAM) in 2019 (Jan-Dec).?
An estimated 1.5 million people are currently facing Crisis (IPC 3) or Emergency (IPC 4) through to June 2019, this includes around 139,000 people who are facing Emergency (IPC 4). Poor Gu season rainfall could result in crop failure and livestock deaths, thereby reducing food availability and access among pastoral and agropastoral livelihoods.
Should food insecurity worsen, rates of malnutrition rates may rise further, especially for groups with particular vulnerabilities such as children under 5, pregnant and lactating mothers, elderly people, and people living with disability.?
Further displacement is likely among pastoralist communities in search of water and pasture, as well as rural to urban migration. In January, around 17,000 people were newly displaced, 53% due to drought-related causes.?Reduced water availability for humans and animals in northern and central pastoral livelihood zones is a major concern and has triggered earlier-than-normal water trucking at high prices (FEWS NET 01/2019). Outbreaks of communicable diseases such as acute watery diarrhoea will likely increase as a result of a potential drop in water availability.?
This risk was identified in the March Quarterly Risk Report.
Food security: food security is deteriorating, particularly in northern and central Somalia, where dry conditions persist, severely affecting crop and livestock production and disrupting livelihoods. Approximately 1.7 million people are now estimated to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) between April and June.?
WASH: infrastructure requires maintenance, particularly in displacement settlements and areas affected by drought.?
Humanitarian access: restrictions continue to affect aid delivery in south-central Somalia.?
Information Gaps and Needs
- There are significant information gaps about the number of people in need and the severity of their needs. People in need and severity is currently based upon IPC phases (including updated figures as a result of the ongoing drought). See HNO Annex 1 for more information.?