Security incidents involving Al Shabaab are expected to persist in Lower and Middle Juba, Lower and Middle Shabelle, Gedo, Bay, Bakool, Banaadir and Hiraan, causing displacement and loss of lives.?Regular IED explosions are reported in these areas, including landmine attacks, car and suicide bombs. At least 54 civilian deaths from explosive violence have been recorded since September (51 from IEDs).?Casualties are reported in clashes between officials/soldiers and Al Shabaab around the capital Mogadishu, Hiraan region, Gedo region and other regions.?Armed groups and Al Shabaab also target Parliament members and civilians.? Recent research into Al Shabaabs tactics suggests that the group is switching to bombs as its primary method of targeting the Somali government and its allies, and that Al Shabaab is conducting fewer attacks on government bases and more attacks against government offices and businesses that refuse to pay Al Shabaab taxes.?
On 9 November Al Shabaab detonated three suicide vehicle-borne IEDs and exchanged fire with security forces in Mogadishu, targeting two hotels and the headquarters of the Central Investigations Department of the Somali Police Force. Following the detonations armed individuals attempted to enter one of the hotels but were repelled by security forces. 53 fatalities and over 100 wounded have been reported; the number of deaths is expected to rise.?AMISOM soldiers killed four civilians in Mogadishu on November 6. Al Shabaab detonated an IED targeting the convoy and AMISOM forces fired on civilians at close range following the explosion. AMISOM has launched an investigation into the incident.?Al Shabaab detonated an IED targeting a convoy of Ethiopian troops from AMISOM in Hiraan region, central Somalia on October 29. Al Shabaab claimed to kill 30 soldiers in the attack, but these casualties are likely exaggerated.?On 30 October hundreds of heavily armed Ethiopian troops entered Galgaduud region, on the northeast border with Hiraan region. It is unknown if they are part of AMISOM or reinforcements for Ethiopian operations in central Somalia.?Al Shabaab claimed responsibility for two suicide bomb attacks on restaurants in Baidoa, Bay region, on 13 October that left at least 20 people dead and 40 injured.?
As of 1 November 2018, 2,345 Al Shabaab-related incidents (violence, battles, etc.), including 713 fatalities, have been reported.?In 2017, 3,034 incidents involving Al Shabaab were reported, with 1,329 fatalities. In 2016, 2,662 Al Shabaab-related incidents and 419 fatalities were reported. For many incidents, casualty counts are unconfirmed; actual numbers are likely much higher.?
IntercIan fighting and incidents between Al Shabaab and clan militias are common, resulting in significant casualties and displacement.?In October nearly 100 people were killed, over 100 injured and thousands displaced due to clan clashes in Dumar district, Sool region, a territory claimed by Somaliland and Somalia's Puntland.?Ethiopian troops have been deployed to Sool region to intervene.?