Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)2.20 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.2.80 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.1.40 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.2.70 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian access constraints.1.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
The Mindanao island group (Mindanao), with a population of 24 million, has long had the highest poverty rates in the Philippines despite its natural resources and a promising agricultural sector. Mindanao is prone to natural disasters resulting in displacement – as is the rest of the country. Displacement in Mindanao is also caused by clashes between the military and armed groups that reject or are no longer involved in peace talks with the Government. Besides conflict, displacement, and poverty, a shadow criminal economy, clan politics, and intercommunal tensions also disrupt the livelihoods and economic potential of Mindanao, requiring a nexus approach to response. Over 100,000 people are in protracted displacement in Mindanao because of conflict and violence.
Mindanao has a four-century-long history of Moro resistance against forces from outside the island, with conflict between the Philippine Government and armed groups lasting since the late 1960s. The communist New People’s Army is active across the country, including in Mindanao. The Islamic State has had influence in Mindanao since 2014. The siege of Marawi city in 2017, in Lanao Del Sur province, was a five-month battle between pro-Islamic State fighters and the Philippine military. The conflict displaced 400,000 people to nearby towns and left houses and infrastructure destroyed or damaged. Although reconstruction is taking place, around 16,000 IDPs are still unable to return after four years because of the destruction.
The establishment of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) in March 2019 has been a major step towards conflict resolution between the Philippine Government and several autonomy-seeking groups, particularly the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). BARMM is the poorest region in the country. Armed conflict and violence are still common in BARMM’s poorest provinces of Lanao Del Sur, Maguindanao, and Sulu, where clashes between the military and armed groups such as the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters and the Islamic State-linked Abu Sayyaf Group occur frequently. ?
No significant recent humanitarian developments. This crisis is being monitored by our analysis team.
Displacement in Mindanao
Source : UNHCR Protection Cluster - http://www.protectionclusterphilippines.org/
Shelter: IDPs in Mindanao live in permanent housing, in transitory sites, or are hosted by friends or relatives. For those living with family or friends, lack of privacy and limited space are commonly reported issues.?
WASH: Transitory sites lack access to clean water, hygiene, and sanitation. ?
Food and livelihoods: IDPs report that they have limited access to livelihood opportunities at the transitory sites, and hence, are unable pay for their daily needs. Some of them have reported that they leave their families behind to work in other localities. ?
Access to services: Overall, access to basic services and assistance remains an issue.?
UPDATE FROM THE FEBRUARY 2022 RISK ANALYSIS
MEDIUM RISK LEVEL
Political violence and attacks by armed groups in Mindanao around the presidential May elections result in displacement and protection issues
The risk has materialised. The Philippines’ three-month-long election campaign spanned from February–May 2022, with general elections occurring on 9 May?. Conflict-related displacements rose from February–May; during that period, around 47,000 conflict-related displacements were recorded, including 3,500 in May alone. In comparison, only around 3,130 conflict-related displacements were recorded in the four months prior to the election campaign (October 2021 to January 2022)?. Election-related violence drove around 90% of conflict-related displacements in May. Almost all of these displacements occurred in Maguindanao province?. IDPs took refuge in temporary shelters, such as schools and mosques, in nearby communities and with relatives. They were provided with emergency support in the form of tarpaulins, food, and potable drinking water, especially for those residing in temporary shelters. Most conflict-related displacements in the mentioned eight-month period were temporary, and most of the IDPs have returned to their places of origin. Some IDP returnees have expressed concerns regarding their safety and security because of unresolved conflict?. Around 15 people died from election-related violence in Mindanao during the campaign period and on election day? .