Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)2.90 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.3.10 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.3.00 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.2.70 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian access constraints.1.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
CrisisInSIght: Global Risk Analysis
The humanitarian situation in the Philippines is driven by a long-standing conflict in the south and various natural disasters, including the latest crisis caused by typhoon Rai in southern and central Philippines. The main impacts of these crises are displacement and the disruption of services and livelihoods. People living in poverty are particularly vulnerable to these impacts.
The protracted armed conflict on Mindanao island (southern Philippines) since the 1960s has resulted in a crisis that requires political, humanitarian, and long-term response. There were over 111,000 people displaced in Mindanao because of the conflict as at the end of November 2021.
Typhoon Rai (locally named Odette) passed over Caraga (Eastern and Central Visayas) and MIMAROPA regions on 16–17 December 2021, making nine landfalls in seven provinces. The impact resulted in large-scale displacement, damages, and destruction. The needs of the affected population include food, WASH, shelter, health, relief NFIs, restoration of power and communications, early recovery, livelihoods, and education.
The Philippines is among the most disaster-prone countries in the world. Typhoons, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions often result in high rates of displacement. National authorities supported by international partners are largely leading preparedness and response to reoccurring natural disasters and conflict-related displacement. Social cohesion is a significant factor in local resiliency as the displaced often stay with relatives and friends. ?
No significant recent humanitarian developments. This crisis is being monitored by our analysis team.
Update from the March 2022 Risk Analysis
Medium risk level
Political violence and attacks by armed groups in Mindanao around the presidential May elections result in displacement and protection issues
The risk has materialised. The Philippines’ three-month-long election campaign spanned from February–May 2022, with general elections occurring on 9 May. Conflict-related displacements rose from February–May; during that period, around 47,000 conflict-related displacements were recorded, including 3,500 in May alone. In comparison, only around 3,130 conflict-related displacements were recorded in the four months prior to the election campaign (October 2021 to January 2022). Election-related violence drove around 90% of conflict-related displacements in May. Almost all of these displacements occurred in Maguindanao province. IDPs took refuge in temporary shelters, such as schools and mosques, in nearby communities and with relatives. They were provided with emergency support in the form of tarpaulins, food, and potable drinking water, especially for those residing in temporary shelters. Most conflict-related displacements in the mentioned eight-month period were temporary, and most of the IDPs have returned to their places of origin. Some IDP returnees have expressed concerns regarding their safety and security because of unresolved conflict. Around 15 people died from election-related violence in Mindanao during the campaign period and on election day.