Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)2.60 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.3.50 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.2.00 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.2.70 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian access constraints.1.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
A long-standing conflict in the south and various recurrent natural disasters drive the humanitarian situation in the Philippines. The main impacts of these crises are displacement and the disruption of services and livelihoods. People living in poverty are particularly vulnerable to these impacts. ?
Protracted armed conflict in the Mindanao group of islands (in southern Philippines) since the 1960s has resulted in a crisis that requires political, humanitarian, and long-term response. As at early February 2023, there were over 121,000 people displaced in the region because of armed conflict, clan feuds, and crime. ?
The Philippines is also among the most disaster-prone countries in the world. Typhoons, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions often result in high displacement rates. National authorities, with the support of international partners, largely lead preparedness and response efforts to reoccurring natural disasters and conflict-related displacement. Social cohesion is a significant factor in local resiliency, as the displaced often stay with relatives and friends. ?
Typhoon Rai (locally named Odette) made nine landfalls in seven provinces in December 2021. It affected more than 12 million people in the southern and central parts of the country, mostly affecting the Western Visayas (Region VI), Central Visayas (Region VII), Eastern Visayas (Region VIII), and Caraga (Region XIII) regions. In July 2022, a 7.0 magnitude earthquake that was followed by aftershocks hit the northwestern region of the country, affecting more than 570,000 people in the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) and Ilocos Region (Region I). In October 2022, Typhoon Nalgae (locally known as Paeng) hit Philippines, affecting more than six million people. The most affected regions were the Western Visayas (Region VI), Calabarzon (Region IVA), Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM), Central Luzon (Region III), Eastern Visayas (Region VIII), Cagayan Valley (Region II), and Bicol (Region V) regions. The impact of these natural disasters resulted in large-scale displacement, damage, and destruction. The needs of the affected population include food, WASH, shelter, health, relief NFIs, the restoration of power and communications, early recovery, livelihoods, and education. ?
No significant recent humanitarian developments. This crisis is being monitored by our analysis team.
Update from the February 2022 Risk Analysis
Medium risk level
Political violence and attacks by armed groups in Mindanao around the presidential May elections result in displacement and protection issues
The risk has materialised. The Philippines’ three-month-long election campaign spanned from February–May 2022, with general elections occurring on 9 May. Conflict-related displacements rose from February–May; during that period, around 47,000 conflict-related displacements were recorded, including 3,500 in May alone. In comparison, only around 3,130 conflict-related displacements were recorded in the four months prior to the election campaign (October 2021 to January 2022). Election-related violence drove around 90% of conflict-related displacements in May. Almost all of these displacements occurred in Maguindanao province. IDPs took refuge in temporary shelters, such as schools and mosques, in nearby communities and with relatives. They were provided with emergency support in the form of tarpaulins, food, and potable drinking water, especially for those residing in temporary shelters. Most conflict-related displacements in the mentioned eight-month period were temporary, and most of the IDPs have returned to their places of origin. Some IDP returnees have expressed concerns regarding their safety and security because of unresolved conflict. Around 15 people died from election-related violence in Mindanao during the campaign period and on election day.
Read the February 2022 Risk Analysis here.