Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)2.90 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.3.10 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.3.00 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.2.70 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian access constraints.1.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
Humanitarian Access Overview
CrisisInSight: Global Risk Report
The humanitarian situation in the Philippines is driven by a long-standing conflict in the south and various natural disasters, including the latest crisis caused by typhoon Rai in southern and central Philippines. The main impacts of these crises are displacement and the disruption of services and livelihoods. People living in poverty are particularly vulnerable to these impacts.
The protracted armed conflict on Mindanao island (southern Philippines) since the 1960s has resulted in a crisis that requires political, humanitarian, and long-term response. There were over 111,000 people displaced in Mindanao because of the conflict as at the end of November 2021.
Typhoon Rai (locally named Odette) passed over Caraga (Eastern and Central Visayas) and MIMAROPA regions on 16–17 December 2021, making nine landfalls in seven provinces. The impact resulted in large-scale displacement, damages, and destruction. The needs of the affected population include food, WASH, shelter, health, relief NFIs, restoration of power and communications, early recovery, livelihoods, and education.
The Philippines is among the most disaster-prone countries in the world. Typhoons, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions often result in high rates of displacement. National authorities supported by international partners are largely leading preparedness and response to reoccurring natural disasters and conflict-related displacement. Social cohesion is a significant factor in local resiliency as the displaced often stay with relatives and friends. ?
No significant recent humanitarian developments. This crisis is being monitored by our analysis team.
Electoral violence across the Philippines is a threat during the three-month-long election season that started on 8 February 2022. Filipino voters will choose their next president, vice president, and 18,000 other political positions on 9 May.? Electoral violence by privately hired armed groups includes voter intimidation, attacks on polls, and the assassination of political rivals.?
The leading candidate for the presidential elections is Ferdinand Marcos Jr., son of Ferdinand Marcos Sr., who held the presidency from 1965 until a people’s revolution ousted him in 1986.? In southern Mindanao, Marcos Sr.’s policies contributed to land grabs, human rights abuses, and conflict.? Marcos Jr.’s controversial candidacy will likely contribute to increased political tensions and violence in Mindanao.
Armed group attacks and clashes with the military still affect Mindanao. Armed groups include the New People’s Army, Maute, Abu Sayyaf, and Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters.? These groups may take advantage of political tensions and authorities’ focus on the elections and conduct more attacks. Security forces are being deployed to areas of security concern across the country, mostly in Mindanao.?
Rivalling political clans that control the local economy by force and a shadow economy that provides the means for armed groups aggravate political violence and conflict in Mindanao.? The situation puts Mindanao at high risk of increased violence and attacks by armed groups, including electoral violence by ‘private’ armed groups hired to attack polls and political candidates by rivalling politicians.?
Polls in areas with the presence of armed groups, particularly the New People’s Army, are most at risk.?
The risk of electoral violence and increased conflict during and after the three-month-long election season (February–May 2022) will likely result in higher-than-average displacement (including protracted displacement) and raise protection concerns. There are two reasons the number of IDPs will most likely increase or spike when voters head to the polls on 9 May. The polls could be targeted with violence, or armed groups may take advantage of the security focus on polls to conduct attacks elsewhere.
The Government has sufficient resources to respond to IDP needs, but IDPs in Mindanao tend to become displaced for protracted periods. Protracted displacement reduces access to basic services, livelihoods, food, WASH, and protection. Evacuation centres and IDP sites in Mindanao also tend to be in remote areas difficult to access or far from services. IDPs may face protection issues because of a lack of security and the presence of criminality (such as drug-selling). Displaced people in Mindanao often resort or choose to stay with relatives, but sharing homes reduces privacy and space. The loss of livelihoods that accompanies displacement can also increase family tensions and gender-based violence.? Host families in Mindanao will likely come under additional economic strain for supporting displaced relatives, particularly when displacement becomes protracted. Mindanao regions have the highest poverty rates in the country, and the negative economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impacts of Typhoon Rai have worsened the situation.?