Crisis Severity The severity score from 1 to 5 is based on 31 indicators aggregated into 3 pillars (impact, conditions, and complexity)0 Very lowVery high 5
Impact This measures the impact of the crisis itself, in terms of the scope of its geographical, and human effects.0 Very lowVery high 5
Humanitarian Conditions This measures the conditions and status of the people affected, including info about the distribution of severity.0 Very lowVery high 5
Complexity This measures the complexity of the crisis, in terms of factors that affect its mitigation or resolution.3.30 Very lowVery high 5
Access Constraints This measures the level of humanitarian access constraints.3.0No constraintsExtreme constraints
- 16,991,000 People exposed [?]
In the disputed region of Kashmir, conflict has recently intensified at the Line of Control dividing India administered Kashmir (Jammu and Kashmir) and Pakistan administered Kashmir (Azad Kashmir). The desire for autonomy in regions of Kashmir has led to uprisings and independence movements. Rising tension is disrupting civilian life and raising protection concerns for residents in Kashmir region. Cross-border fire exchanges and shelling has killed civilians, although there is a lack of available data on the number of people affected. Following security incidents in March 2019, over 15,000 people have been displaced and over 100 houses were damaged in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. ?
Militant groups in the region have recruited young people to use violence for Kashmir’s freedom. ? Jaish-e-Muhammed (JEM), a Pakistan armed group, aims to seize control over Indian-administered Kashmir through targeted attacks. ? The most recent escalation in conflict was triggered by a JEM suicide attack in India-administered Kashmir on 14 February, killing over 40 Indian security personnel. ?
05/08: The Indian government has passed a presidential decree to scrap India-administered Kashmir’s special status in a bid to fully integrate it with the rest of the country. The decree was issued hours after imposing a major security clampdown in the disputed territory. India’s Hindu-nationalist party also moved a bill proposing to divide the territory into two regions to be directly ruled by New Delhi. Many Kashmiris believe that the Indian government plans to change the territories Muslim-majority demographics by allowing in new Hindu residents, as non-Kashmiris can now buy land. Tensions in Kashmir have been rising since 2 August when local Indian officials issued an alert over possible militant attacks by Pakistan-based groups. The Indian government ordered tourists, Hindu pilgrims and non-local labourers to leave the territory. On 4 August parts of India-administered Kashmir were placed under lock-down and local politicians arrested amid growing tensions following the deployment of 10,000 troops by the Indian government. Restrictions have since been imposed in Srinagar. The Indian army is enforcing a curfew, all educational institutions and most shops are closed, and telephone and internet services have been suspended. Unrest is likely and a potential spike in violence would lead to displacement and to a deterioration of humanitarian conditions. The territory remains in lock-down.?
Information Gaps and Needs
There is no crisis severity score for the Regional Kashmir conflict due to the lack of available data.