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Crisis Severity0 Very lowVery high 5
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Impact0 Very lowVery high 5
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Humanitarian Conditions0 Very lowVery high 5
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Complexity0 Very lowVery high 5
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Access ConstraintsNo constraintsExtreme constraints
Key figures
Special Reports
Special Reports
Overview
The humanitarian situation in Pakistan is marked by conflict and natural hazards.
Militancy targeting civilians and security forces was ongoing since 2020 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan provinces. Balochistan is Pakistan’s least urbanised and most impoverished province, and a revival of separatist groups there resulted in greater instances of violence and repression against civilians. Active militant groups, including the Taliban and Islamic State-affiliated groups, contribute to high levels of insecurity in KP. Shelling along the Line of Control in Pakistan-administered Kashmir also poses a protection and displacement risk. ?
Displacement within Pakistan is often temporary and recurring. Since 2009, insecurity has displaced over 5 million people in KP (including in Federally Administered Tribal Areas, which were merged with KP in 2018). IDPs are primarily housed in urban areas, particularly in Peshawar, Rawalpindi, and Karachi, though where they are housed depends largely on their province and village of origin. Most IDPs live in host communities and lack access to livelihoods, adequate shelter, and WASH facilities. The humanitarian situation for IDPs is compounded by the presence of 1.4 million Afghan refugees in the country, which adds pressure to the already strained public infrastructure. ?
Pakistan is extremely prone to natural hazards, including seasonal flooding, avalanches, and earthquakes. Each year, at least 3 million people are affected by natural hazards across the country. Poor infrastructure, ineffective warning systems, and remote terrain aggravate the damage and limit the humanitarian response. In 2018–2019, severe drought conditions decimated the agricultural sector, affecting 5.5 million people – especially in Sindh and Balochistan provinces – and long-lasting effects are still being seen in 2021. ?
Latest Development
Pakistan is grappling with a severe food security crisis marked by a shortage of wheat and soaring food prices. This crisis is affecting low-income communities and flood-affected areas, where 14.6 million people require emergency food assistance. In 15 flood-affected districts, a recent survey found that one-third of children under two years old suffer from moderate acute malnutrition and 14% from severe acute malnutrition. With more than 4.4 million acres of agricultural land destroyed in the 2022 flood, wheat and rice production will be lower in 2023. Food price inflation continues to increase, reaching 48% in April. Several factors contribute to food scarcity, including adverse weather conditions, the macroeconomic crisis, political unrest, bureaucratic challenges, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The scarcity of food has resulted in social unrest and violence. The country's lower foreign reserves make it difficult to meet the increasing demand through imports.?
Humanitarian Access
High Constraints
Pakistan’s humanitarian access situation has remained stable with high constraints over the last six months. Freedom of movement and access to basic services for civilians remain highly restricted in Balochistan province and Pakistani-administered Kashmir because of the presence of military checkpoints and armed group activity. These activities primarily drive violence in Balochistan, involving groups such as the Balochistan Liberation Army, and affect the freedom of movement and access to services of affected people. A similar situation regarding armed group activities has been observed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Tehreek-e-Taliban, an organisation comprising several Islamist armed groups, is also reported to run an extortion network imposing taxes on developmental projects, such as road construction and the building of schools and hospitals in Waziristan and adjacent districts, limiting the availability of and access to services. As for refugees, Pakistan provides smart identity cards to Afghans, which are necessary to access services and assistance.
A complex registration process and strict regulations allowing the Government of Pakistan to refuse NGO registration and conduct raids of their offices without prior notice have been hindering humanitarian response. The widespread floods that hit Pakistan mid-2022 have eased some of these processes. Some financial screening processes are also likely to be relaxed after the October removal of Pakistan from the list of the Financial Action Task Force (the global money laundering and financing watchdog) of countries under ‘increased monitoring’.
One incident regarding violence against humanitarian personnel and assets was reported in the last six months. Two aid workers were attacked and injured in the Dera Ghazi Khan district of Punjab province while transporting aid for flood-affected people. The perpetrators also looted some relief items. No violence against humanitarian personnel or assets was reported in the previous period.
Heavy rains and floods have affected 33 million people in Pakistan in 2022. The floods have damaged and destroyed many schools and health facilities, reducing people’s access to education and health services, as well as roads and communication structures, cutting off the people in need from services and aid. Pakistan also suffers from topographic obstacles, such as mountainous parts with winding sections, rough roads, and steep slopes, and vehicle weight limitations, making access to some remote areas challenging for humanitarian responders.
For more information you can consult our latest Global Humanitarian Access Overview – December 2022.
Risk
Pakistan’s prolonged economic crisis and stalling of the bailout programme result in increased poverty and social unrest, leading to heightened food insecurity and protection concerns Latest update: 29/03/2023Probability
Impact
Key Priorities
Health: Access to healthcare is limited, especially for refugees and IDPs. Weak health infrastructure and surveillance systems, poor hygiene practices in homes and hospitals, and community scepticism towards public health campaigns have contributed to disease outbreaks, including dengue and polio, and to increasing rates of HIV.?
Food: Drivers of food insecurity in Pakistan include poverty, natural disasters, access to food, and limited access to WASH services. A prolonged drought in 2018–2019 affected 5.5 million people and left a lasting impact on food security across the country.?
For information on the key priorities regarding the 2022 floods crisis in Pakistan, please visit the floods crisis page.
UPDATE FROM THE FEBRUARY 2022 RISK ANALYSIS
LOW RISK LEVEL
The strengthened presence of the Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in the newly merged tribal districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) increases humanitarian needs, protection concerns, and access constraints in the area
This risk has partially materialised considering the increased TTP influence in KP province, widespread extortions, and heightened protection concerns for community members?.
In June 2022, as part of peace negotiations between Pakistan and the TTP (which started in October 2021), the TTP agreed on an open-ended ceasefire with Pakistan and with tribal leaders of KP?. The TTP ended the ceasefire on 3 September because the Government of Pakistan refused to meet its demands?. As part of the negotiations with the Government, TTP leaders had demanded the reversal of the decision to merge the tribal districts in KP and the approval for TTP fighters to return from Afghanistan (where they had fled to in 2014 because of Pakistan’s military offensive) to KP. Pakistan rejected both demands?. Hundreds of TTP fighters, however, have already returned to KP from Afghanistan even without a signed peace agreement with the Government. A series of local protests voiced the people’s concerns over the return of potential violence, human rights abuses, and criminal activity associated with the TTP, such as extortions?. The TTP also uses its influence to control the lives of the people in certain areas of KP, potentially hampering people’s access to public services and increasing access inequality for women and girls?. The TTP continues to oppose polio vaccines and targeted polio campaigns in KP in December 2021, although violence against polio health workers in Pakistan is common?. Polio cases in Pakistan increased from one in 2021 to 15 by mid-2022, all in the northern Waziristan district of KP bordering Afghanistan?. There is no evidence to attribute the increase in polio cases to TTP presence and influence.
Read the March 2022 Risk Analysis here.