We looked into nine indicators to rank and compare the humanitarian access levels worldwide. Affected populations in more than 50 countries are not getting proper humanitarian assistance due to access constraints. Humanitarian access has deteriorated in Colombia, Iraq, Myanmar, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Somalia over the past six months. 13 new countries entered the ranking since the latest ACAPS Humanitarian Access report released in August 2018. Physical constraints and restriction/obstruction of access to services and assistance are the most common challenges.
The 16 February 2019 elections are likely to be a close race between President Buhari, from the All Progressive Congress (APC), primarily supported by herding communities, and Abubakar, from the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP), primarily supported by farming communities. There is a risk that the tense political climate during the pre-election period will worsen ongoing intercommunal tensions in Nigeria’s Middle Belt between farming and herder communities, who are largely dissatisfied with the federal and state governments’ responses to the farmer-herder violence in 2018. Affected areas are likely to include Taraba, Benue, Kaduna, Plateau, Nasarawa, Adamawa, Zamfara, Rivers, Ekiti, Enugu, Ogun, and Bayelsa states.
Tensions are likely to increase into more violence as militias become more organised, government responses provoke violence, and attacks become more frequent during the dry season, from November to March. The impact of violence is likely to be felt by civilians, many of whom flee in fear of attacks and retribution. This is likely to displace hundreds of thousands of people, aggravate food insecurity, and continue to put women and girls at risk of sexual and gender-based violence.
The Global risk analysis outlines 18 contexts where a significant deterioration is expected to occur within the next six to nine months, leading to a spike in humanitarian needs. This report comes as a result of ACAPS daily monitoring and independent analysis of the globe to support evidence-based decision-making in the humanitarian sector.
Considering the diversity and complexity of the crises, combined with the number of contexts included in the report, it has not been possible to cover each crisis in detail. Instead, we have highlighted the broad evolution of the crises to flag potential deteriorations and inform operational, strategic, and policy decision-makers.
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These scenarios consider how migration dynamics within and via West and North Africa (including across the Mediterranean Sea) might evolve in the first half of 2019 and the potential humanitarian consequences.
These scenarios are not attempts to predict the future. Rather, they describe situations that could occur in the coming six months, and are designed to highlight the possible impacts and humanitarian consequences associated with each scenario. The aim is to support strategic planning, create awareness and promote preparedness activities for policymakers and other actors working on migration. The time frame is until June 2019 although the scenarios may remain valid some months longer.
ACAPS has developed these scenarios for the Mixed Migration Centre (MMC) under the DFID-funded Safety, Support and Solutions – Phase 2 programme.
Since the publication of ACAPS Nigeria Floods Update I Briefing Note on 26 September, rains have continued although Niger and Benue river levels have dropped slightly. As of 26 September the flooding of the Niger and Benue rivers is affecting 826,400 people and displacing 176,300 people across 12 states. Assessments are ongoing, and numbers are likely to increase. Since 26 September, some 200 deaths and 1,035 injuries have been reported. Assessments indicate that around 17,800 homes were damaged or destroyed across all affected states as of late August. Shelter, food, NFIs, and medical assistance continue to be key needs for the affected population. There is no available data from Adamawa and Taraba states.
Since the publication of ACAPS Nigeria Floods Briefing Note on 21 September, river levels in most of the 12 affected states remain high due to flooding, which has affected 441,251 people, and displaced 141,369 people between late August and 24 September. A total of 108 deaths and 192 injuries have been reported as of late August. Rainfall is expected to continue for the next week. Rivers and Bayelsa states are estimated to be amongst the worst affected states where water levels continue to rise. Initial assessments indicate that 13,031 homes were damaged or destroyed across all affected states as of late August. Shelter, food, NFIs and medical assistance continue to be key needs for the affected population.
Heavy rainfall has caused the Niger and Benue rivers to overflow, displacing thousands across 12 states as of late August. The National Emergency Management Agency has declared an emergency in Kogi, Niger, Delta and Anambra states, and is monitoring eight other states in central and southern Nigeria. In addition to river flooding, flash floods have occurred in central and northern Nigeria since July, affecting Katsina, Kano, Jigawa and Sokoto states. Thousands of houses have been destroyed across all affected states and the affected population has lost household and personal belongings. The floods have caused considerable damage to farmland across Nigeria. There is an urgent need for shelter, NFI, food and livelihood assistance.
This report compares current humanitarian crises based on their level of humanitarian access. Affected populations in more than 40 countries are not getting proper humanitarian assistance due to access constraints. Out of 44 countries included in the report, nearly half of them are currently facing critical humanitarian access constraints, with four countries (Eritrea, Syria, Venezuela, and Yemen) being considered as inaccessible. Moderate humanitarian access constraints are an issue in eight countries, and 15 face low humanitarian access constraints.
On 23 June Fulani herdsmen attacked Berom farmers in Plateau state, triggering displacement in Barkin Ladi local government area (LGA), Jos South LGA, Riyom LGA, Bokkos LGA and Mangu LGA. As of 9 July, most reports state that over 38,000 people are displaced in 31 camps, though some estimates are much higher. The camps are overcrowded and needs include urgent shelter, wash, health and food assistance. The violence since June is the latest spike in tensions between Fulani herdsmen and local farmers in the Nigerian Middle Belt region, which have been growing since January 2018.
Food security remains a major humanitarian concern in 2018 in multiple contexts. ACAPS highlights in this report five of the worst affected countries, where large populations are food insecure, and where households and areas are either already in Catastrophe or Famine levels of food insecurity (IPC Phase 5), or are at risk of deteriorating into this situation.
Humanitarian Overview 2018 examines major humanitarian crises worldwide to identify likely developments and corresponding needs. The report focuses on countries where the crisis trend indicates a deterioration in 2018 and a corresponding increase in need. It also includes countries where crisis is not predicted to worsen, but is likely to remain severe: Ethiopia, Iraq, Nigeria, Palestine, Sudan, and Syria. Across these countries, food security, displacement, health, and protection are expected
to be the most pressing humanitarian needs in 2018.
An estimated 54% of the population in Monguno Local Government Area (LGA) is displaced, and the LGA is among those in Borno with the highest burden of population displacement and needs (along with Mafa, Kukawa. and Dikwa). Over 122,000 people from other LGAs are displaced in Monguno LGA, and another 32,000 IDPs have returned to the LGA. Many returning IDPs are living in secondary displacement and in dire need of food, shelter, access to livelihood opportunities, and healthcare. Insecurity remains a challenge: areas outside Monguno town remain unsafe and sporadic attacks by Boko Haram in surrounding villages and LGAs continue to cause displacement within Monguno and prevent returns beyond the headquarters.
34 suicide attacks have been reported across Nigeria’s Borno state since January, resulting in over 170 deaths. This is the highest number of attacks over this period in Borno since at least 2013, although the lowest number of fatalities.
The return of refugees from Cameroon, Niger, and Chad has put increased pressure on the already existing displacement situation in Banki, Gamboru, Ngala, Damasak, and Pulka. Between January and June 2017, 35,000 Nigerians have returned to Banki, in Bama LGA from Cameroon. More than 4,500 of the returnees have been relocated to Pulka in Gwoza LGA. As of April 10, the Nigeria Immigrations Service (NIS) had registered 119,061 returnees from Niger and 339 from Chad. Ongoing military operations within local government areas (LGAs) and villages mean the refugees are unable to return home. They thus remain displaced within the headquarters of the LGA or are relocated to a military designated safe zone – a situation that could become protracted. Living in organized camps, makeshift settlements, schools, hospitals, and host communities as their homes are not yet safe to return to, the returning refugees lack access to food, livelihood opportunities, shelter, WASH, healthcare, and other essential services.
6.9 million people are living in areas with inadequate health services in the northeast, including more than 68% of the 1.8 million IDPs living in host communities across Adamawa, Borno, and Yobe states. The lack of qualified staff and essential medicines, and the destruction of medical facilities all continue to hamper the implementation of interventions.
While humanitarian partners have scaled up response, gaps remain and new needs continue to emerge due to population movements and returns. Access remains a significant challenge due to insecurity and will be worsened by the rainy season, which is likely to start in June. The rainy season, overcrowding in camps, and the limited availability of WASH services at camps and other settlements will also increase the risk of disease outbreaks.
About 150,000 people are facing Famine in Nigeria and South Sudan. Another 9 million face Emergency food security outcomes (IPC 4) in Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan, and Yemen, and could face Famine (IPC 5), if no assistance is provided between May and August, when the lean season takes hold.
In all four countries, conflict is resulting in a high level of displacement and limited humanitarian access. Insecurity is preventing food production and driving prices up. All four countries are experiencing economic problems: falling revenue, currency depreciation, and inflation. Somalia is particularly hard hit by drought. The situation is likely to deteriorate with the lean season. Longstanding vulnerabilities, such as poverty and chronic malnutrition, are also contributing to the crisis. Households have exhausted their coping mechanisms.
Years of insurgency and counterinsurgency operations have resulted in the displacement of approximately 1.9 million people and created a food and nutrition crisis in Nigeria’s northeast. The worst-affected local government areas of northeast Nigeria are facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) food security conditions and Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) levels above emergency threshold.
Areas of Borno with limited access, such as Konduga, Bama, KalaBalge, Mafa, Ngala, Dikwa, and Marte, have between 39,000 and 250,000 people in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) to Famine (IPC Phase 5) food security conditions, according to the Cadre Harmonisé (Cadre Harmonisé 10/03/2017). Agricultural production has fallen, and raids and suicide bombings have destroyed vital infrastructure.
Security measures impacting food security include a ban on the cultivation of tall crops, road closures, controls on fertiliser and fuels, and curfews. The scale of population movement is worsening food security: returning refugees and IDPs are adding to the strain on both camps and host communities.
3,959 cases of meningitis, 181 laboratory confirmed, resulting in 438 deaths have been reported as of 5 April. While 19 states have reported outbreaks, 97% of reported cases are in six states: Katsina, Kebbi, Niger, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara. Meningitis serotype C, or NmC, is responsible for 83% of laboratory confirmed cases and is severely undervaccinated in the affected areas. Additionally, vaccines for NmC is very costly at USD 50 per dose. Both this cost and local health capacity has limited response thus far.
The longstanding violence between herders and farmers in Nigeria’s Benue, Kaduna, and Plateau states has increased in recent years. In 2016, at least 800 people were killed in southern Kaduna and 1,269 in Benue state, where at least 14 of the 23 LGAs were invaded.
The February 2016 attack on 10 villages in Agatu LGA, for instance, displaced over 7,000 people. With the state government unable to provide or maintain camps and relief, IDPs are unable to meet their basic needs. At least 62,000 people have been displaced in the three states since 2015.
Violence by Boko Haram (BH) and counterinsurgency activities by the Nigeria Army has left devastation in Nigeria’s northeast. With 2.5 million people in need, Adamawa is the second most affected state in the conflict. An estimated 1,900,000 (approximately 337,000 households) are internally displaced across the country in almost 2,000 locations, including 152,000 people in Adamawa. While response started in Adamawa, focus has since shifted to Borno, as more LGAs have become accessible, leaving thousands of affected people in Michika, Mubi, Mahai, Gombi and other LGAs in severe need.
Suicide attacks and attempts in northeast Nigeria between September 2016 and January 2017
The BH insurgency and the military’s counterinsurgency has resulted in a severe crisis in Nigeria’s northeast. More than 20,000 people have been killed and 4,000 women and girls abducted since the conflict began eight years ago. 1.6 million people remain internally displaced.
The number of people with protection needs has grown from 2.6 million in 2015 to 6.7 million in 2017, as areas that were previously held by BH have been become accessible. Needs result from attacks on communities, chronic insecurity, and violations of human rights and international humanitarian law. Women and children, who make up 55% of the displaced population, are most critically affected. Many men have been killed, detained, or are otherwise unaccounted for. Sexual and gender-based violence is frequent, as vulnerable populations adopt negative coping strategies like transactional sex and the sale and use of illicit drugs.
See map above for suicide attacks and attempts in northeast Nigeria.
The Nigerian government has recently engaged in military operations in areas previously held by Boko Haram (BH). As a result, some parts within ten Local Government Areas (LGAs), namely Bama, Damboa, Dikwa, Gwoza, Konduga, Kukawa, Magumeri, Monguno, Ngala and Shani, have become more accessible as of mid-December 2016.
At least 279,758 IDPs out of the 579,000 present in these areas are now reachable. This newly gained accessibility is revealing the dire needs of people who had been cut off from all essential services for almost two years. High malnutrition rates and suspicion of famine levels are among the main humanitarian issues. Poor health and wash conditions exacerbate the needs of the affected population. Protection issues are also widely reported among IDPs.
However, even if access has recently improved, in most cases it is limited to the LGA headquarters. At least six LGAs remain completely inaccessible in northern and central Borno, leaving between 400,000-800,000 people cut off from humanitarian aid.
Food security, food production, nutrition, and livelihoods have been enormously compromised by the conflict. Displaced populations and host communities in the northeast face particularly severe food insecurity resulting from poor production and loss of livelihoods. A marked increase in the food insecure population has been noted in addition to a loss of livelihoods.
The Crisis Overview 2016: Humanitarian Trends and Risks for 2017, outlines the countries where needs are greatest, and growing, as we approach the end of 2016.
Based on our weekly Global Emergency Overview (GEO), and four years of data on humanitarian needs across 150 countries, we have identified ten countries where humanitarian needs are likely to be highest in 2017, as well as four that merit attention, as they face a potential spike in needs. We also consider the humanitarian situation in the northern triangle region of Latin America, where the wide-ranging humanitarian impact of pervasive gang violence is chronically underreported.
Over five years of conflict in northeast Nigeria has resulted in critical levels of malnutrition and food insecurity. The military offensive in 2016 has resulted in the recapture of many urban areas and increased humanitarian access. While the government of Nigeria and humanitarian community are scaling up, the response remains inadequate. Driven by a lack of food and livelihoods in their places of displacement, many of the displaced are returning home to locations lacking critical infrastructure and essential services. The ongoing conflict has the potential to continue to cause further displacement and reduce food security.
There is an urgent need to ensure a coherent and robust response strategy that takes into account future developments to guide the current scale-up of operations.
The scenarios within this document are not attempts to predict the future. Rather they are a description of situations that could occur in the coming nine months, and are designed to highlight the possible impacts, and resulting humanitarian consequences, of the insurgency in northeast Nigeria.
Newly accessible areas of Borno and Yobe states and areas with active military operations face severely limited access to food. Levels of malnutrition are critical and populations face a substantially increased risk of mortality. The crude mortality rate (CMR) has surpassed the threshold of 2/10,000/day – used when classifying Famine (IPC Phase 5) – in several areas since June 2016.
Over 14 million people are affected by conflict in northeast Nigeria and more than 10 million people are in need. A growing number of people are in urgent need of food assistance, with some of the worst affected areas possibly in Famine (IPC Phase 5). Alarming rates of acute malnutrition are emerging in Borno and Yobe and deaths as a result of SAM have been reported.
Borno state is most affected: 4.5 million people are estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance, and 4.1 million are food insecure. In Yobe and northern Adamawa, pockets of insecurity persist: 3.2 million people estimated to be in need in Yobe, including 2.3 million food insecure. 900,000 people in Adamawa are food insecure.
Borno, Yobe and Adamawa state are most affected by the Boko Haram insurgency. The northeastern states are hosting the majority of IDPs. 1.3 million IDPs are in Adamawa, Borno, Gombe, and Yobe states. The entire resident population of these states (16 million) are considered affected by the Boko Haram insurgency. Humanitarian needs are severe and access is limited, particularly in Borno state.
Newly accessible areas of Borno and Yobe states are revealing extremely high rates of severe acute malnutrition, especially among 275,000 IDPs reported to live in 15 camps in Borno state. Information from recent rapid assessments, although limited, raises the possibility of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in the worst affected and least accessible areas of Borno. The Minister of Health has declared a nutrition emergency in Borno state. 613,000 children have been reported with SAM.
Poor quality and lack of food, inadequate WASH, as well as the insurgency, are among the main causes. Most affected areas are those adjacent to Sambisa Forest and those in northern Borno. Although only limited information is available, there are concerns that conditions among other IDP populations in the area could be similarly dire. The crude mortality rate (CMR) may have surpassed 2/10,000/day in June.
The Crisis Overview 2015: Humanitarian Trends and Risks for 2016, outlines the countries considered to be in greatest humanitarian need as we approach the end of 2015.
Based on our weekly Global Emergency Overview (GEO), and three years of data on humanitarian needs across 150 countries, we have identified eleven countries where humanitarian needs are likely to be highest in 2016, as well as seven that merit attention, as they face a potential spike in needs. A final section considers the potential impact of the current El Niño event across a number of regions.