In the region of Liptako Gourma, overlapping Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, an upsurge in violence since the beginning of 2018 has led to the displacement of more than 235,000 people. In Mali, long-standing tensions between Dogon (pastoralist farmers) and Fulani (nomadic herders) communities over access to land and water points escalated into clashes in 2018, and “self-defence” militias associated with both communities have led a series of attacks on the civilian population. The conflict, exploited by Islamist armed groups to strengthen their presence in the region, has spilled over into both Niger and Burkina Faso where tensions between communities are increasing and attacks against civilians, led by armed groups operating across the borders, have become more frequent. In Burkina Faso, the country most affected by the upsurge of violence in 2019, more than 70,000 people have been displaced since the beginning of the year. IDPs are in urgent need of food and shelter assistance in particular. Access to health services and education are also constrained for both IDPs and host communities.
1,489 cholera cases (including 26 deaths) have been reported in Maradi region since 15 July. After showing signs of improvement in early August, the outbreak intensified after 10 August. More than 930 cases, including at least 19 deaths, have been reported since 11 August. The outbreak was initially contained in Madarounfa department but has now spread to the heavily populated city of Maradi, the capital of Maradi region. Heavy rainfall and floods in the area have affected more than 20,000 people and are exacerbating the risk of contamination.
Between 9 January and 25 April, a total of 164 cases of hepatitis E, including 25 deaths (CFR: 15.2%) have been reported in Diffa region, where there is a population of 673,146. The outbreak was declared by the Nigerien authorities in mid-April. All the deaths occurred among pregnant mothers. Over 76% of reported cases were among females. As of 28 April, five of the six health districts in Diffa region had been affected, with Diffa and N’Guigmi districts accounting for 96% of all cases reported.
• A Rift Valley Fever (RVF) outbreak was declared on 20 September in the districts of Tchintabaraden, Tassara, and Abalak in the Tahoua region of Niger.
• As of 10 October, 90 cases have been reported among humans, including 28 deaths, with a case fatality rate (CFR) of 31.1%.
• Movement of the animal and human population is likely to further increase the risk of the outbreak spreading. The population at risk is estimated at 125,000.
Boko Haram attacks in Yebi and Bosso, two towns in the east of Niger’s Diffa region, have displaced an estimated 50,000–75,000 people since 19 May. Most of the displaced population first sought safety in the town of Toumour, 25–30km west of Bosso town, but have since moved westwards and northwards, fearing further BH attacks.
Newly displaced populations are being reported among host communities and in spontaneous sites along the national highway that connects Diffa and N’guigmi departments. Others are heading to Kablewa, an official camp that is already nearing capacity. The new arrivals will have severe humanitarian needs after travelling up to 100km to reach safety, with little food, water or shelter. The capacity of host communities to cope with the newly displaced is low, and humanitarian agencies, while present, are already stretched to meet the needs of the 241,000 existing displaced.
Access in Bosso town is limited. Reports suggest most civilians have left, but this is yet to be confirmed and those who remain likely face high protection and humanitarian needs.
The Global risk analysis outlines 18 contexts where a significant deterioration is expected to occur within the next six to nine months, leading to a spike in humanitarian needs. This report comes as a result of ACAPS daily monitoring and independent analysis of the globe to support evidence-based decision-making in the humanitarian sector.
Considering the diversity and complexity of the crises, combined with the number of contexts included in the report, it has not been possible to cover each crisis in detail. Instead, we have highlighted the broad evolution of the crises to flag potential deteriorations and inform operational, strategic, and policy decision-makers.
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These scenarios consider how migration dynamics within and via West and North Africa (including across the Mediterranean Sea) might evolve in the first half of 2019 and the potential humanitarian consequences.
These scenarios are not attempts to predict the future. Rather, they describe situations that could occur in the coming six months, and are designed to highlight the possible impacts and humanitarian consequences associated with each scenario. The aim is to support strategic planning, create awareness and promote preparedness activities for policymakers and other actors working on migration. The time frame is until June 2019 although the scenarios may remain valid some months longer.
ACAPS has developed these scenarios for the Mixed Migration Centre (MMC) under the DFID-funded Safety, Support and Solutions – Phase 2 programme.
The Crisis Overview 2015: Humanitarian Trends and Risks for 2016, outlines the countries considered to be in greatest humanitarian need as we approach the end of 2015.
Based on our weekly Global Emergency Overview (GEO), and three years of data on humanitarian needs across 150 countries, we have identified eleven countries where humanitarian needs are likely to be highest in 2016, as well as seven that merit attention, as they face a potential spike in needs. A final section considers the potential impact of the current El Niño event across a number of regions.